A group of fellow Mets fans this week started a debate about
the state of the team and the manner in which it has evolved over the past
several seasons. In the one camp you
heard, “We’re way better off today than we were back in 2010!” In the other camp were cries about the
Wilpons and Sandy Alderson being disingenuous by duping the fans on the basis
of being competitive, spending on free agents, opening up to the international
pools of talent and acquiring necessary players through increased payroll
flexibility. As I usually do, I figured
the best way was to look at the teams and the numbers since, coincidentally,
the 2010 team and the 2014 team finished with identical 79-83 records.
1st Base
After the failed Mike Jacobs experiment, the Mets inserted
rookie Ike Davis and he never looked back, turning in a respectable 19 HRs, 71
RBIs while batting .264. He was good for
a .351 OBP, .440 SLG and .791 OPS. Lucas Duda in his first full year playing
primarily 1st base took advantage of his comfort there and slugged
30 HRs, 92 RBIs while batting .253. His
achieve a .349 OBP, .481 SLG and .830 SLG.
Clearly Duda had the better year. Edge to the 2014 team.
2nd Base
Luis Castillo did his best Ruben Tejada impression, turning
in 0 HRs, 17 RBIs and batting .235 in about 299 ABs which represented the
majority of time at the position. The
man himself, Ruben Tejada, contributed 1 HR, 15 RBIs and an even lower .213
AVG. Daniel Murphy was an All Star. Clear edge to the 2014 team.
Shortstop
Remember when no one utter the phrase, “Who’s going to play
shortstop?” with respect to the Mets? It
was because they had one Jose Antonio Reyes firmly entrenched there as their
leadoff hitter. What did he do in 2010? He batted .282, stole 30 bases, homered 11
times and drove in 54. I’m not even
going to look up the numbers from 2014. Major
edge to the 2010 team.
3rd Base
It seems like an old Mad Magazine Spy Vs. Spy routine, but
here we have David Wright (healthy) vs. David Wright (unhealthy). To remind you of what he used to be capable
of doing, 2010 was a banner year for him with 29 HRs, 103 RBIs, 19 SBs while
hitting .283. Suffice to say that season
is far more than double what Wright produced in 2014. Huge edge to 2010.
Catcher
Remember Rod Barajas?
He had a John Buck-like short rally showing home run power, finishing
the 2010 year with 12 HRs, 34 RBIs and a .225 AVG. He was joined by Josh Thole who hit 3 HRs, 17
RBIs and .277. That’s a combined
15/51/.248. If we extrapolated Travis d’Arnaud’s
stats for the same number of ABs he would have 15/48/.241. That’s a push (though the argument can be made
that d’Arnaud’s hot finish was more indicative of his capabilities).
Left Field
People with sensitive stomachs should take their antacid now
before I utter the name Jason Bay. His 6
HRs and 44 RBIs to go along with a .259 average were NOT what the team had in
mind when they forked over big bucks to the Type A free agent. As pitiful as this output was, it still
exceeds what the Mets got from their Bobby Abreu, Andrew Brown, Eric Young,
Eric Campbell, etc. black hole last season.
Edge, believe it or not, 2010.
Center Field
Once upon a time Sandy Alderson made a trade. He looked at the centerfielder the Mets had
who just finished a brilliant season in which he slugged 11 HRs, drove in 69
Runs, stole 37 bases and hit a robust .290.
He thought to himself, “We can do better!” and brought in an older career
.242 hitter named Andres Torres who had one competent year in which he produced
a 16 HRs, 63 RBIs, 26 SBs while hitting .263.
Well, that perhaps is why there have been so few major league talent for
major league talent trades made during this current regime, but that’s not the
point today. We’re here to see how Angel
Pagan stacked up against Juan Lagares.
Sorry, but despite his defensive superiority, there was no comparison at
the bat as to who was more productive.
Edge 2010.
Right Field
Well, in 2010 the Mets had some scrub named Bel-something
who in his last full year in a Mets uniform was hurt for much of the year and
combined with Atlanta Braves castoff Jeff Francoeur to deliver 18 HRs, 81 RBIs
and a .243 AVG. Curtis Granderson put up
20 HRs but his 60 RBIs and .227 AVG fall short before we even get into
defense. Edge 2010.
Starting Rotation
Mike Pelfrey, Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey and Jon Niese
combined to win more than they lost, with 3.66, 2.98, 2.84 and 4.20 ERAs
respectively. The 5th starter
slot was a revolving door that included the likes of John Maine, Oliver Perez,
Pat Misch, Hisanori Takahashi and Dillon Gee.
The 2014 team had Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee and
Jacob de Grom for the majority of the year.
The ERAs ranged from 4.09, 3.40, 3.54, 4.00 and 2.69 for this
group. The top four were superior in
2010 but the 5th starter was a horror show until Takahashi and Gee came
along. While everyone certainly likes
where the current staff is headed, on the basis of numbers alone the 2010 group
seemed slightly better. I’d call it a
push.
Bullpen
Here’s the truly
surprising one. Everyone is impressed
with where the bullpen is now with Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, Vic Black,
Carlos Torres, Josh Edgin and eventually Bobby Parnell. However, back in 2010 they might have been
even better with Frankie Rodriguez posting 25 saves with a 2.20 ERA, Elmer
Dessens and Manny Acosta below 3.00 and perpetual Pedro Feliciano holding his
own with a 3.30. I’ll call this one a
push, too.
Manager
Here’s perhaps the toughest call. The only way Terry Collins or Jerry Manuel get
into the Hall of Fame is by buying a ticket.
They were both in the lower tier of managerial strategy compared to
their peers. However, only the Jenrry
Mejia mess stands out in my mind as particularly notable blotch on an otherwise
undistinguished resume for Manuel whereas I could write a book about the things
Collins has said and done wrong since that sad day late in 2010 when he was
named manager. Slight edge to 2010,
though it’s really like picking between bedding down with a rattlesnake or a
copperhead. They’re both going to bite
you eventually.
Summary
The Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the 2010 squad was 81-81
and they underachieved at 79-83. The
Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the 2014 squad was 82-80, so they underachieved
more. We have two clear edges for the
2014 team on the right side of the infield.
We have two HUGE edges for the 2010 team on the left side of the
infield. You have pushes at catcher,
starting pitching and bullpen with just slight edges to 2010 for the entire
outfield and the manager. It seems to me
the 2010 team was indeed better than the 2014 squad, though I am far more
optimistic going into 2015 than I was going into 2011. The payroll is certainly a lot more palatable
to the owners. Perhaps someday they’ll
pump some of those savings into the on-the-field product.
7 comments:
It would be interesting to see the projections for the 2015 team vs. the 2010 team. Seems the 2015 team would have the edge at 1B, 2B, starters, hopefully C, maybe BP. 3B and SS go easily to 2010. CF is interesting because if Lagares continues to improve offensively and stealing bases, his D will give him the edge. LF would go to 2015 and RF probably stays with 2010. Overall edge to 2015 but might only translate to 83-85 wins.
I'd defiiitely give the edge to 2015's team over 2015. My range for 2015 is 86 to 94 wins. Just better in every way than 2014 (except Collins and Tejada).
2015's over 2014 that is. Writing on a tablet is still a challenge!
Another day dawning, more positive Mets articles floating thru the internet universe...yet most folks seem to think the Mets will win 3 to 5 more games than last year. To which I say 3 things: balderdash, poppycock, and bah humbug.
Thinking about 5th outfielder, interesting to note that in OB%, after the All Star break, den Dekker was at .396. Next was Duda at .346. Grandy .96. Wright? .282. All to say, do not count out Matt DD.
Grandy at .296.
You forget the all important determining factor known as options. Eric Campbell and MdD have them. Kirk Nieuwenhuis does not. Cesar Puello does not.
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