2/13/15

Tom Brennan - PROJECTION OF METS OFFENSE - 2014 VS. 2015 - Vol.. 3 OF 6

8 comments

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION OF METS’ 2015 OFFENSE VS. 2014 OUTPUT – Tom Brennan

The Mets’ 2014 offense was pretty lousy.  629 runs. 

So I did some comparative analytics, wherein I forecast my thoughts on 2015 production with what I see as the Mets’ likely 2015 players.  Trades and injuries are a part of the game and could alter my projections down the road, but you gotta start somewhere.

So my plan is to go position by position, see what happened last year, see what I think for 2015, and figure out the projected aggregate differential.  Today I cover 1B and 2B.

As posted by me previously, just in terms of runs batted in, the following lists the actual results for 2014 and my projections for 2015.  I think that the Mets are capable of another 121 runs above last year’s skimpy 629 (3.9 runs per game), bring us to 750, or 4.6 runs per game.  I think 50 of those runs will be due to shorter fences, and 70 will be due to better performances and better players.  Just a gut on that split.

P.S. the source of my 2014 stats were one of the Mets’ website links.

Position
2014 RBIs
Projected 2015
Difference
First Base
96
110
+14
Second Base
73
70
-3
Shortstop
57
80
+23
Third Base
69
90
+21
Catcher
74
75
+1
Left Field
46
80
+34
Center Field
76
75
-1
Right Field
78
90
+12
Pinch Hitting
18
30
+12
Pitchers
12
20
+8
TOTALS
599
720
+121

Let’s say 720 RBIs equate to 750 total runs. 

Projections are just that, projections.  My guesswork. 

Let’s go plus/minus 40 to address uncertainty – that said, I am projecting the Mets will score 710 – 790 runs in 2015.
 

That run production increase, plus Harvey’s return, a full year of deGrom, and a stronger bullpen starting the season, and I think we could win 86-94 games in 2015. Most target us for less.  I think that’s the range.

I am summarizing my thoughts regarding each position’s projections in 5 subsequent articles in the days to come:

1.    1st base and 2nd base

2.   Shortstop and 3rd base (TODAY'S ARTICLE)

3.   Catcher

4.   Outfield

5.   Pitchers and pinch hitters


SHORTSTOP:

What to make of shortstop in 2015 vs. 2014?  Well in 2014, Tejada, Flores, Quintanilla (in strictly SS at bats) primarily combined for.239 hitting with a paltry 8 HRs, 19 doubles, and 49 runs scored, plus a fairly decent 57 RBIs.

In 2015, I will assume Wilmer Flores offensively comes into his own.  I can see .260, 35 doubles, 15 homers and 70 RBIs.

Why?  I feel he demonstrated in Vegas at a very young age that he can HIT.  After a slow month when he first got there as a 21 year old in 2013, he hit over .330 in the rest of his time in 2013 and 2014 in AAA, with an RBI per game over more than 140 games and lots of extra base hits.  He had his time in the majors last year to adjust.  I feel he will feel he belongs and hit all season.

Let's assume Murphy is not traded.  For 20 games at SS, we play a sub to keep Wilmer fresh.  I think if Murphy stays, Tejada may be that early season back up, but I'd not be surprised to see Matt Reynolds start out hot in AAA, and Tejada get moved mid-season.  Reynolds could spell Flores, Murphy and even Wright.

Overall, I see shortstop at .260, 80 RBIs, 65 runs, and 15 homers.  That would be an increment of nearly 25 RBIs over 2014.  Maybe we lose 10 runs defensively with Wilmer there.  Adding that much offense is a trade off I'd gladly accept.

THIRD BASE:

Projecting third base offensive production in 2015 is enigmatic.  Which David Wright will show up...the reasonably healthy one or the health-impaired one?  I go with a reasonably healthy scenario here, based on Wright’s comments to date.  He should be slightly helped by the shorter fences in right center.  I envision .275, 20 homers, and 80 RBIs from Captain Wright.

I also envision more rest time for David.  Let's say he does not start 20 games.  Add in his subs and I'll go with overall 3B production at .270, 22 homers, 90 RBIs and 90 runs scored from 3rd base. 

Last year's 3B collective cast of characters went .262 with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 69 RBIs and a paltry 62 runs scored. 

I see a net add at 3B of roughly 20 RBIs and 30 runs in 2015 over 2014.  That would go a long way towards strengthening the Mets’ overall offense – for the Captain to play near all star caliber once again.

Shortstop and third base – two struggling positions in 2014 that I think will be far better offensively in 2015. 44 runs better, to be precise.

Next article: Catcher offense

8 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

I think you may be a little optimistic on Flores (particularly with the mental midget batting him 8th) and a little pessimistic on 3B unless there are a lot of games missed by the Captain. The net result seems about right, however.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey Reese, without saying as much, I think Flores pushes his way up from the 8th spot with solid stickwork.

I hope Wright does better than my projctios. Seems that is optimistic health wise, so I just added 20 ribbies over 2014.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey Reese, without saying as much, I think Flores pushes his way up from the 8th spot with solid stickwork.

I hope Wright does better than my projctios. Seems that is optimistic health wise, so I just added 20 ribbies over 2014.

eraff said...

The kink below is for MLB Team offense. You can select MLB, NL/AL, Home/Away.... really obvious that top scoring teams are generally top winners.

Mind bending Mets Stats...a "not so bad" overall runs scored. Startling is the fact that they were 2nd RS Away from Home.

They threw away games early based on roster selection--- 1b, bullpen... that we remember.

I don't buy the projection....720 runs puts them at the top of baseball..... that would make them a 92-100 win team---If they can merely field the ball.

If SA and THE TROIKA agree with this run projection, it explains the lack of activity on the player front.

eraff said...

oops!--- the MLB Team Offense Link:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/league/nl/order/false

Thomas Brennan said...

Time will tell, eraff, but please read the last few posts on offense of Mets at catcher (Monday), outfield (Wednesday), and pinch hitters and pitchers (Friday) on why I projected what i did. I think part of last year's miserable offense at Citi was weaker hitters, deeper fences, and weaker pitchers that led them to feel like losers in their own park. The change in those factors in 2015 ought to add a ton of added runs at home in 2015.

eraff said...

My theory on the weak home performance is that their "Upper Management" is Excessively "all over" the young players. Homestands allow for more coaching...more input...more face time. I believe they've over done it at every turn.

There has been a "Park Factor" involved... the splits are well beyond the park factor, or general luck.

Thomas Brennan said...

I agree that too is a likely factor, eraff. Good point. Add in fan negativity and press intensity.

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