2/16/15

Tom Brennan - PROJECTION OF METS OFFENSE - 2014 VS. 2015 - CATCHER

6 comments

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION OF METS’ 2015 OFFENSE VS. 2014 OUTPUT – CATCHER - Tom Brennan
 
The Mets’ 2014 offense was pretty lousy.  629 runs.   

I did comparative analytics, forecasting 2015 production for the Mets’ likely 2015 players.  Trades and injuries are a part of the game and could alter my projections down the road, but you gotta start somewhere.

I am going position by position, seeing what happened last year and what I think for 2015, and figure out the projected aggregate differential. 

In terms of runs batted in, the following lists the actual results for 2014 and my projections for 2015.  I think that the Mets are capable of another 121 runs above last year’s skimpy 629 (3.9 runs per game), bringing us to 750, or 4.6 runs per game.  I think 50 of those runs will be due to shorter fences, and 70 will be due to better performances and better players.  Just a gut on that split.

P.S. the source of my 2014 stats were one of the Mets’ website links.

Position
2014 RBIs
Projected 2015
Difference
First Base
96
110
+14
Second Base
73
70
-3
Shortstop
57
80
+23
Third Base
69
90
+21
Catcher
74
75
+1
Left Field
46
80
+34
Center Field
76
75
-1
Right Field
78
90
+12
Pinch Hitting
18
30
+12
Pitchers
12
20
+8
TOTALS
599
720
+121

Let’s say 720 RBIs equate to 750 total runs. 

Projections are just that, projections.  My guesswork.  One more step:

Let’s go plus/minus 40 to address uncertainty – that said, I am projecting the Mets will score 710 – 790 runs in 2015.

That run production increase, plus Harvey’s return, a full year of deGrom, and a stronger bullpen starting the season, and I think we could win 86-94 games in 2015. Most target us for less.  I think that’s the range.

I am summarizing my thoughts regarding each position’s projections in 5 subsequent articles in the days to come:

1.    1st base and 2nd base

2.   Shortstop and 3rd base

3.   Catcher (TODAY'S ARTICLE)

4.   Outfield

5.   Pitchers and pinch hitters

CATCHER:

 Catcher was a surprisingly productive position in 2014, with Anthony Recker as a backup (and a smidgeon of ABs from Juan Centeno and a grand slam from Mr. Teagarden) not hitting much (.225).  But the catchers combined for a surprising 31 doubles, 3 triples, 20 homers, 67 runs and 74 RBIs.
Once d'Arnaud found his stride last year, he did great. After his early struggles, he tore up AAA for a few weeks, returned in late June, and was a force, hitting .272 with a .463 slug % in 257 official at bats. So he finished up at .242 with 22 doubles, 3 triples, and 13 HRs and 41 RBIs in 385 at bats.
So what can I see happening in 2015 in Travis Land?   I can see d'Arnaud getting better as the acclimated starter, starting about 130 games and going .260, 25 doubles, 20 HRs, and 65 RBIs.  At backup, I could see Recker handle the chores again, but Johnny Monell as a pretty potent lefty hitter vs. minor league righties, makes him an intriguing substitute possibility.  For instance, in 2013 in AAA, Monell had splits of .277/.362/.513 vs. righties in 389 plate appearances. So one of those 2 backs up - until Plawecki arrives.


Let's say Plawecki is held in AAA until mid-June for future salary reasons, he likely would then be ready to supplant the other 2 back ups.
It will be interesting to see how this position plays out in 2015, but I can see similar totals to 2014 (say 24 HR and 75 RBI), but add 30 points to the overall average - .260 instead of .230.  So, overall I see a bump in offense at catcher in 2015 over 2014.  Considering the 2014 production was pretty decent, that would not be bad at all.

Catcher – a surprisingly high RBI spot in 2014 which will nonetheless show improvement in 2015 offensively.

Next article: Outfield offense

6 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

With a good CERA and his seeming penchant for hitting home runs at effective times, the Mets will look past the fact that Recker is a career hitter UNDER .200 and REWARD HIM once again for his horrific offense and his K-Rate north of 36%. To put that in perspective, that's Kirk Nieuwenhuis/Curtis Granderson territory. Wait, they tolerate those human windmills, why should I expect accountability here?

Thomas Brennan said...

I hope Monell gets a real look this spring, Reese, but I suspect Recker has it locked up unless he gets hurt. Performance does not seem to matter at times in Metsville..

Reese Kaplan said...

You're absolutely right. How much time was wasted on Abreu, Tejada, Young, Young Jr., Nieuwenhuis, Davis, Quintanilla, Recker and Collins?

Thomas Brennan said...

Dekker, Puello, and Montell are at risk of that philosophy, Reese.

James Preller said...

I am fine with Recker in the backup role. Solid guy & has a little pop. It's fine. Very tough role.

BTW, respectfully, Tom's runs projections strike me as wildly, almost insanely optimistic. He's talked about a very broad 710-790 range, zeroing on 750 runs.

In 2014, 3 MLB teams were over 750 -- and only CO from the NL w/ 755. Eight teams were over 700 -- only CO and LA from the NL.

The Mets scored 629.

In 2013, Mets scored 619. Four teams in MLB were over 750 -- only St. Louis in the NL. Colorado was 10th in runs with 706, good for 2nd in NL.

Mets scored 650 in 2012; 710 in 2011.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey James P,

Probably wildly optimistic at 750, but if they stay reasonably healthy, I think they can approach that #...time will tell. Lots of sub par performances last year still got them to 629. I think they'll improve offensively at most positions.

If the fences were not moved in, I'd have lowered that 30-50 runs.

Mack's Mets © 2012