The Morning Report – 2-12-15: #3 NL Rotation, Nimmo's New Swing, 3rd Place, Curtis Granderson 2015 Projection


     The Mack's Mets Writers conducted a conference call last night to figure out a few things while Mack gets some R&R to give his health a chance to improve. In his absence we will be continuing his Morning Reports of pulling information from other blogging communities and providing initial starting point conversation. It will continue to be posted at 8am (other than today) and will include some commentary from other writers as well as myself.

Get Well Soon Mack! Spring Training is only 10 days away!

Mike Vorkunov | NJ.com - Mr. Vorkunov ranks the Top 5 rotations in the National League and has the Mets coming in at #3 overall only behind the Nationals and the Dodgers.

     Matt Harvey is back to the top of a formidable rotation. Even if Harvey cannot be the swaggering, dominant ace he was in 2013, he should be pretty good. So will Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler. Jon Niese is a strong No. 4 starter. Then there's Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee and Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz in the farm system.

Chris Soto: While I agree the Mets rotation will be one of the better ones in the National League....I'm not 100% sold that it will be the 3rd best in the National League. I still have a hard time placing them ahead of the Cardinals and the Padres rotation with Shields is now a pretty formidable one.

Kevin Kiernan | New York Post - Nimmo already is reaping the rewards of the Mets hiring Long and assistant hitting coach Pat Roessler. "We noticed that my hips weren't really getting turned at 90 to 100 percent at contact, they were more like 70 percent, I was closing myself off. You could see the change right away, a lot more power was showing up and that’s exciting for me. I try to hold my finish a little bit so I can see where my foot is and that’s what I've been working on here."

Chris Soto: This is an extremely encouraging sign. While there are those who will continue to disagree on whether he was worth a 1st round pick, no one has ever questioned Nimmo's work ethic and drive. He is beginning to draw comparisons to multi-time All-Star Giants OF Hunter Pence who is a perennial .280 AVG/20 HR/10 SB guy. If Nimmo develops into Pence, this draft pick will end up being a huge win for Sandy Alderson.

Shamus Clancy | Philley.com - Combine Harvey and Wheeler with righthander Noah Syndergaard, a top prospect who likely will make his major league debut this season, and the Mets should have a trio of young arms ready to guide the franchise for the rest of the decade. The Mets’ offense, however, is another story, likely to be too inept for playoff contention. Harvey and Wheeler will be the first Mets duo of starting pitchers to make the All-Star Game since Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez in 2006. Syndergaard will display flashes of brilliance. But the Mets still will finish third in the NL East because of their offensive deficiencies.

Chris Soto: That's an extremely strong prediction for Harvey and Wheeler from a Phillies website, however, they don't mention a single word about Jacob deGrom. They also are figuring that Wright will continue on his poor run of form despite returning healthier in 2015 as well making no mention of the dimension changing and its potential effect on left handed hitting Lucas Duda and Curtis Granderson. I'll stick to my prediction of a 2nd place finish.

Brian Joura | Mets 360 - Optimists point to Carlos Beltran, who had a rough first year with the Mets but who rebounded to become one of the few $100 million free agents to be worth their contract. But Beltran was 28 in his first year with the Mets while Granderson was 33 last year. Overall, we see a slight increase in average and a larger, although not massive, increase in slugging. Our .275 BABIP is also a jump from his 2014 output but a good bit away from his lifetime .300 mark in the category. It’s an improvement over last year but is it worth $16 million?

Chris Soto: The guys over at Mets360 are predicting a .239 AVG .745 OPS 23 HR season from Grandy in 2015. That's a pretty reasonable projection that would make Granderson worth +2.9 Wins Above Replacement or $12.9m (assuming he plays above average defense in LF. It's still not worth his contract but it's a solid performance.)


Thomas Brennan said...

Morning, guys.

Clancy is right about the pitching, wrong about the hitting. With shorter fences alone, minimum of 40 more runs. Better hiiters, bounceback hitters too... I think the'll score at least 100 runs more than 2014's 629.

This team seems to be bursting with optimism going into 2014. I'm expecting big things in 2015. Better talent and optimism and drive will go a long, long way.

Thomas Brennan said...

Going into 2015, that is.

Thomas Brennan said...

I also think, post-NL adjustment and shorter fences, and assuming Grandy does not have another .130 April, that his #'s will be higher than .239 with 23 homers. Both those stats would be barely above 2014's. Also, he ought to have more lineup protection this year, leading to better pitches to hit.

Ernest Dove said...

Nice job getting this post up guys, looks good to me...............
I guess even the damn Phillies apparently think the Marlins will finish ahead of the Mets (screw the Phillies).
The offense won't be so bad.

The optimist in me is starting to think that Brandon Nimmo will work himself into a future all star

Reese Kaplan said...

I agree with Ernest, nice job pulling together the morning thread.

Regarding Nimmo, I was never against that pick. I thought it was gutsy, something I have not seen from the Mets much in the recent past, but it was also because he was not going to be an over-slot player, so let's not kid ourselves. The one that galled at me was Cecchini who didn't even hit particularly well in high school. That one is still a head scratcher but perhaps he'll become something of a late bloomer.

Reese Kaplan said...

Anyone catch the Adam Rubin tweet that the Mets are planning to play Ruben Tejada on days when Niese starts due to his propensity to induce ground balls? That slippery slope to the bench for poor Wilmer Flores has begun before the first pitch has been thrown. Next will come Wheeler and then we'll hear the mental midget say something like, "Hey, we've got to get Ruben going and he won't get going by sitting on the bench."

Ernest Dove said...

(2 cent opinion alert)

As usual Reese it appears out Metsies are planning to outsmart themselves once again...........

Y not put their coaches/analysts/scouts/number crunching to work and simply position Wilmer in specific spots on the field each at bat depending on the situation. I believe thats called defensive positioning and I believe teams enjoy doing that to the Mets, especially when Duda smash steps to the plate.

Thomas Brennan said...

Up to Flores to HIT, HIT HIT, and keep Tejada to a late inning replacement role.

Zozo said...

Wishing you guys great success in keeping Macks Flow going til he gets back!!!
I agree with the philly writer and think we will finish 3rd. I feel the Marlins upgraded themselves more than we have this year and will be better prepared to take the next step forward.
I also like Cuddyer but wish they didn't lose their 1st Rd draft pick for him. Would of preferred Rios and keep the 1st pick.
Also the there has been a lot of talk about eliminating the DH in the National League, I am all for it. I would rather gain those 2 extra hitters in a lineup. Not just your 9th guy but your 8th batter will be that more productive when he sees more pitches to hit. Also that way can keep a Flores around when we get a shortstop next year.

Lew Rhodes said...

Guys - great job on the MR!

Sorry to have been MIA the past couple of days ...busy, busy, busy.

I like that folks are writing the Mets offense off - we will sneak up on folks!

I have a feeling this organization is about to turn a major corner and be in contention for the next 4-5 years - something only the 84-89 Mets managed

Steve from Norfolk said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Steve from Norfolk said...

Steve from Norfolk said...
I don't think Tejada would be their first call if they play another SS for the ground ball pitchers. Alderson is over Tejada. I think Matt Reynolds will get the call. Not as much power as Flores, but a much better potential for average than Tejada. I could live with a Flores - Reynolds platoon at short.

Hobie said...

Reuben will get some spot starts, but I hope not every "Niese Day."

My question is, if sit Murph occasionally vs a LHP or give David a day-off, do you play musical chairs in the IF?
i.e. Rueben(SS)-Flores(2B) or vice-vera with Daniel out or plying 3B for Wright

Reynolds stays in LV unless LT injury, IMO.

Any thanks, Chris, for the familiar & confortable daily post.

Thomas Brennan said...

A "trade" proposal. Tejada and Collins to Vegas for Matt Reynolds and a "manager to be named later"

Mets Dreams said...

Great first day of carrying the Mack banner. Love the trade proposal, how about Jim Leyland coming back or maybe Bobby Cox? Speaking of Reynolds, how is he as a SS? Would love to hear some discussion of his defense. Is he a legit option and move Flores to 2B or 3B if Wright gets injured again.

Hector said...

Best comment: "manager to be named later"!!!

Thomas Brennan said...

My take is Reynolds defensively at Ss would fall between Flores and Tejada. All 3 would be inthe average range.

Christopher Soto said...

@Mets Dreams

I agree with Brennan's analysis of there defense.

Here's the grades I would give defensively.

Flores: 45 grade glove, 60 grade arm.
Reynolds: 50 grade glove, 45 grade arm
Tejeda: 55 grade glove, 55 grade arm

jeff said...

Chris Soto: "If Nimmo develops into Pence, this draft pick will end up being a huge win for Sandy Alderson."

isnt that a huge win for THE METS?

who the he11 cares if its a "win" for alderson?

Christopher Soto said...


You are correct that it's a win for the team.

But I'm referring to the criticism Alderson got for drafting Nimmo where he did. If Nimmo=Pence, then Alderson, as well as his scouting department, earn a huge win.

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