Tom Brennan - PROJECTION OF METS' 2015 OFFENSE VS. 2014 - Vol. 1 OF 6



The Mets’ 2014 offensive was offensive, frankly.  Hope I don’t offend anyone saying that.  Stinky.  Like limburger cheese.

Not the worst offense, but another substandard offensive year, with some real positives, like Lucas Duda breaking out, Juan Lagares showing he can hit, and Travis d’Arnaud emerging in the 2nd half.

Key data points of the 2014 Mets team offense (and MLB ranking):

·       629 runs (21st tie)

·       .239 avg. (28th)

·       125 HR (20th)

·       275 2B (12th)

·       19 3B (28th)

·       101 SBs (12th)

So how about some comparative analytics, wherein I forecast my thoughts on 2015 production, with what I see as the Mets’ likely 2015 players.  Trades and injuries are a part of the game and could alter my projections down the road, of course, but you gotta start somewhere.

My plan is to go position by position, see what happened last year, see what I think for 2015, and figure out the projected aggregate offensive differential.

Purely in terms of RBIs, the following lists the actual results for 2014 and my projections for 2015.  I think the Mets are capable of another 121 runs above last year’s skimpy 629 (3.9 runs per game), bring us to 750, or 4.6 runs per game.  I think 50 of those runs will be due to shorter fences, and the other 70 will be due to better performances and improved players.

P.S. the source of my 2014 stats were one of the Mets’ website links.

2014 RBIs
Projected 2015
First Base
Second Base
Third Base
Left Field
Center Field
Right Field
Pinch Hitting

Let’s say 720 RBIs equate to 750 total runs. 

Projections are just that, projections.  My guesswork. 

Let’s go plus/minus 40 to address uncertainty – that said, I am projecting the Mets will score 710 – 790 runs in 2015.

That run production increase, plus Harvey’s return, a full year of deGrom, and a stronger bullpen starting the season, and I think we could win 86-94 games in 2015. Most target us for less wins.  I think that’s the range.

So this is article 1 of 6.  I will summarize my thoughts regarding each position’s projections in 5 subsequent articles in the days to come - please be on the look out for those:

1.    1st base and 2nd base

2.   Shortstop and 3rd base

3.   Catcher

4.   Outfield

5.   Pitchers and pinch hitters


Anonymous said...

One thing that has to be looked at when evaluating the Mets offense last year was the significant split between home and away. I believe the Mets were second in the NL last year in runs scored on the road and virtually every offensive metric was considerably lower on the road. I wish it were just about the fences, but there seems to be a mental block for all hitters at Citi Field.
Anon Joe F

Reese Kaplan said...

How many of those runs were cost by the mental midget in charge benching the hot hand? When Andrew Brown, Wilmer Flores, Matt den Dekker or Eric Campbell were on streaks, they couldn't bribe their way into the lineup. Only when apparently word came down from the mountain in August that we got to see some regular play for these guys instead of the likes of Bobby Abreu, Ruben Tejada, Eric Young, etc.

Thomas Brennan said...

I honestly think some of the mental block will go with the shorter fences' assistance, and secondly, I just think 1 through 9, the hitters will just hit better, by and large. It will dispel the mental block,as will winning more.

Couldn't agree more, Reese. It was so frustrating seeing a Brown destroying AAA and then hardly playing when called up. Dekker was squeezed at first too. Will Collins ever learn?

Thomas Brennan said...

And when it comes to dispelling mental blocks, Joe F, a shorter CF would have helped a bit (402 vs. 408.) But these last 2 fence move ins will collectively go a long way.

John Looby said...

Really enjoying your work Thomas. I look forward to reading the rest of this.

Anonymous said...

Don't forget the cumulative effect of runs scored AND runs allowed (Pythagorean Run Formula). If we score 50 more (doable with the upgrades and better health) AND allow 50 less (better bullpen for the whole season, Harvey back, etc)......it will have the same net effect.

If you change our run differential by 100 runs, there's your 10 or so extra wins......totally doable.

90 wins gets you in the wildcard conversation this year.

Mike F

eraff said...

Below is the run down of MLB team offense, 2014. 750 runs would put the Mets at the top of the scoring stats.

This is one helluva Projection!!...are you sure it;s not a Wish?


eraff said...

Angels 773 Tigers 757 Rockies 755 Oakland 729 Toronto 723 Dodgers 718
Twins 715 Baltimor 705 Nats 686

at 750, that's Really Fancy Company!!!

Thomas Brennan said...

Gentlemen, please read on in the next 5 episodes where I break out my going-in offensive projections. They should, as of now, come out Wed, Fri, Mon, Wed, Fri.

It is in my opinion aggressive but doable. Of course, so many things happen during a season (injuries, etc.) that I gave it a pretty wide range.

Wait, I think the men with the butterfly nets are at the door. I believe they're coming to take me away. An acute case of Metfanosis.

Lew Rhodes said...

Spot on Mike - plus, the Mets also under performed their run differential last year - of course what do you expect with TC in charge

Lew Rhodes said...

Spot on Mike - plus, the Mets also under performed their run differential last year - of course what do you expect with TC in charge

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey John Looby,
Thanks. Should be a fun series.

Mack's Mets © 2012