2/11/15

Tom Brennan - PROJECTION OF METS OFFENSE - 2014 VS. 2015 - 1B and 2B - Vol. 2 of 6

1 comments


COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION OF METS’ 2015 OFFENSE VS. 2014 OUTPUT – Tom Brennan

The Mets’ 2014 offense was pretty lousy.  629 runs. 
So I am forecasting my thoughts on 2015 production, with what I see as the Mets’ likely 2015 players.  Trades and injuries are a part of the game and could alter my projections down the road, but you gotta start somewhere.

My plan is to go position by position, see what happened last year, what I think for 2015, and figure out the projected aggregate differential. 

Today I cover 1B and 2B.

As posted by me previously, in terms of RBIs, the following lists the actual results for 2014 and my projections for 2015.  I think that the Mets are capable of another 121 runs above last year’s skimpy 629 (3.9 runs per game), bring us to 750, or 4.6 runs per game.  I think 50 of those runs will be due to shorter fences, and 70 will be due to better performances and better players.  Just a gut on that split.

P.S. the source of my 2014 stats were one of the Mets’ website links.

Position
2014 RBIs
Projected 2015
Difference
First Base
96
110
+14
Second Base
73
70
-3
Shortstop
57
80
+23
Third Base
69
90
+21
Catcher
74
75
+1
Left Field
46
80
+34
Center Field
76
75
-1
Right Field
78
90
+12
Pinch Hitting
18
30
+12
Pitchers
12
20
+8
TOTALS
599
720
+121

Let’s say 720 RBIs equate to 750 total runs. 

Projections are just that, projections.  My guesswork. 

Let’s go plus/minus 40 to address uncertainty – that said, I am projecting the Mets will score 710 – 790 runs in 2015.

That run production increase, plus Harvey’s return, a full year of deGrom, and a stronger bullpen starting the season makes me think we could win 86-94 games in 2015. Most target us for less.  I think that’s the range.

I am summarizing my thoughts regarding each position’s projections in 5 subsequent articles in the days to come:

1.    1st base and 2nd base (TODAY'S ARTICLE)

2.   Shortstop and 3rd base

3.   Catcher

4.   Outfield

5.   Pitchers and pinch hitters

FIRST BASE:

First base was a pleasant surprise in 2014.   Well, at first, frankly excruciating.  Will it be Davis, Duda...or someone else like Josh Satin or Allan Dykstra? Or even Wilmer Flores?  Hard to know last spring, because Ike promptly got hurt, and so did the better-conditioned Duda when he pulled a hammy. Send them some Ben Gay.  Most of spring training, Davis and Duda were MIA. Anxiety for Mets fans.  Flip a coin.  Many thought "Heads, I lose, tails, I lose."

Then Duda was given the job - except Davis also started some games. Clear as mud.  Finally, the trade of Davis on April 18.  Duda gets the job.  He did not do too well initially.  I analyzed his at bats early on, and the stats bore out that he was being too passive early in counts - to his extreme detriment...when behind in the count, Duda was impotent. Simple as that.

Starting around Memorial Day, he clearly seemed to understand that and got much more aggressive in hitters' counts.

Results?  Terrific...from June 1 on, in 357 official at bats, he hit 23 homers, knocked in 68, and had a slug % of .509.

All year, though, he struggled against lefties, and many starts at 1B vs. lefties were taken by Soup Campbell.  Duda is a guy whose lifetime stats vs. lefties scream "platoon me" - a .319 career slug % vs. lefties is all you need to know. 

Overall, 1B in 2014 produced at .248, with 33 doubles, 29 HRs and 96 RBIs (and 3 Duda steals).  Nice enough.  

Some think Duda will regress.  I disagree, for three reasons.

1) he knows he is the 1B, at least vs. righties...no more uncertainty.

2) he was aggressive at the plate for only the last 4 months. 

3) shorter right field fences.

But Duda won’t play 162.  The good news is 2 fine righty hitters vs. lefties are available – Mayberry and Cuddyer (I don’t see Campbell getting in there this year with those 2 around).
Overall, Mets first base stats for 162 games in 2015:
I project 35 homers, 110 RBIs, .260.  Aggressive, perhaps, but that’s my call.  About another 15 runs of production over 2014.

SECOND BASE:

One of the Mets’ stronger positions in 2014.  Murphy was his consistent self as a somewhat above average offensive 2B. Flores and Herrera combined for 123 at bats, with 32 hits and 6 homers.  Overall, the position over 162 games included .291, with 193 hits, 40 doubles, 15 HRs, 73 RBIs and 91 runs scored.


Murphy may go in a trade, but Herrera and Reynolds (and even Flores) ought to keep up the pace. 

Let’s project .280, 70 RBIs, and 90 runs for second base.
So - first and second base – two positive positions in 2014, I think they’ll be even better offensively combined in 2015.

1 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

I read two really encouraging things in the Post: Matt Harvey had a terrific 29 pitch throwing session, and apparently Kevin Long adjusted Nimmo's hitting posture and it is adding power and line drive after line drive in BP.

Maybe Nimmo's time to get to Queens just got shorter.

Mack's Mets © 2012