Mack – Morning Report – 2-6 - Dillon Gee, 2015 Replacements, Dominican Education, Noah Syndergaard, Pedro Feliciano


Comment From Dave - The Miami Marlins- finishing right around .500 or finishing in a Wild Card spot?

Jeff Sullivan: .500

                  Mack – I agree. I see Miami finishing third in the NL-East behind the Nats and Mets, and ahead of the Braves and Phillies (in that order). Their starting rotation is both too young and still unhealthy to generate more than a .500 record.

Comment From Scott - Does Dillon Gee ever get traded? If so, what is his trade value?

Jeff Sullivan: Yes, quite low!
                  Mack – Yeah, I agree. It’s not like five teams are fighting over him right now a la Hamels. He’s 40-34, 3.91, in 106-G, 103-ST, and no one wants the 28-year old. Amazing

Comment From Alex - Who will be the Mets best starting pitcher this season?

Jeff Sullivan: Harvey

                  Mack – If this proves true, this could be the additional 10 wins alone that Sandy Alderson was talking about the other day.

From Chris/tpgMets - Just taking a look at the projected 2015 25-man vs. where they were early in the season last year. At this point looks like 10 replacements….

                  Pitchers: Harvey, deGrom, Edgin, Black, Gilmartin replace Germen, Rice, Valverde, Lannan, Farnsworth

                  Hitters: Flores, Cuddyer, Campbell, Mayberry, Nieuwenhuis replace Davis, E Young, C Young, Brown, Quintanilla

Mack – You know, when you look at it this way, I can easily see 10 more wins this season.

The important thing here is the subtractions don’t include any ex-super star Mets that have either retired or been traded away.

On the other side, neither do the additions.

But, you match these names up against each other and it is a definite improvement.

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) today announced a partnership with Major League Baseball (MLB) and the Major League Baseball Players Association to promote education, address the needs of children with disabilities, and combat domestic violence in the Dominican Republic.  Dominican MLB players Pedro Martinez, 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame electee; Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers All-Star outfielder; and Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins All-Star pitcher, lent their support to the new alliance and the importance of giving back to their communities. - http://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/feb-2-2015-usaid-mlb-baseball-players-promote-education-dominican-republic

Mack – This is good stuff. No one has received less education than the kids that play baseball in both the Dominican and in Venezuela. Any addition efforts here will be a hell of a lot more than what was done in the past.

Comment From bearproof - More innings this year, Rodon or Syndergaard?

Paul Swydan: Rodon, simply because I don’t trust the Mets because they’re a bunch of morons. Also, they have more starting pitcher candidates than do the White Sox.

                   Mack – Hey Swydan, don’t mince your words. Tell us how you feel.

                   As you all recently seen I did rank Syndergaard over Matz as my top prospect pitcher, but I had him #2 overall to 2B Dilson Herrera. I just feel that, after seeing Herrera handle himself at his young age last year in Queens, I think he will be more successful at his position that Syndergaard will be as a starter.

                   Don’t get me wrong… I like Thor and Matz, but in a rotation that would also include Harvey, Wheeler, and deGrom, I see them fighting it out for SP4 and SP5.

Comment From MetsFaithful5 - If Wright posts a 5.5-7 war season (so a rebound season; his other worst year- 2011, he also played with an injury) in 2015; Are the Mets an 86+ win team?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think so.

                   Mack – I disagree. A combination of Wright posting a 5+ WAR, plus the return of Harvey, should get this team (at least) to 86+ wins.

I saw that the Chicago Cubs are interested in signing LHP RP Pedro Felicano to a minor league contract. I never understood why the Mets threw this guy twice to the wolves, the last time at the end of the 2013 season, after holding his own in Queens (25-G, 4.09) and excelling in Binghamton (14-G, 1.29).

                   I know there are 3,496 relievers penciled in for Las Vegas right now, but Pedro is a proven lefty and wouldn’t kill the Mets to invite him to camp (via a minor league invite) to see if he has anything left. 

I’m just saying…



Anonymous said...

It isn't that "nobody wants Dillon Gee" as Macks says, but rather it's that nobody wants Gee at the price Alderson is requesting.

If, for example, Gee was a free agent this past offseason, he'd almost certainly have signed with someone. But the Mets have the rights to him, and Alderson is requesting a price for Gee that other teams do not find to be reasonable.

This is the Ike Davis situation all over again: Alderson has a player he doesn’t want, but he isn’t happy with what other teams are offering. So Alderson stands pat with the player all offseason, and will stand pat through spring training if he still hasn’t found an offer he likes, and ultimately he will trade the player for the best offer at or around Opening Day.

This is exactly what happened with Ike.

What Alderson is hoping for is that some team loses a starting pitcher to injury, and calls him and says “You know, I changed my mind. I’m okay with moving forward with one of the guys you asked for.”

After all those big names were thrown around for Ike – and by “big” I mean guys relatively high on the other teams prospect lists – Ike was ultimately traded for a AAAA reliever and a 17 year old project lefthander who I think the Pirates soured on quickly after drafting him in the second round of the previous year’s draft.

The same thing is going to happen here, and unless multiple teams suffer injuries and demand for 5th starter types suddenly exceeds supply, then Alderson will be lucky to get a decent deal for Gee, who is not as good as Mack thinks he is.

Gee is more accurately described as a 5th starter type who is no longer cheap and who is an injury risk. In addition, his fWAR last year was negative, and his career fWAR is 2.5.

Gee ain't all that great.

Thomas Brennan said...

I see the Mets at 92 wins. Read my articles on offense and pitching over the next few weeks to see how I get there.

I don't disagree with a Feliciano invite - I just don't think he makes this team.

Nice problem to have - wondering the order of Thor and Matz as SP 4 or 5, when on some teams by opening day 2016, they might be their #1.

Anonymous said...

I'll tell you, we've seen Gee go on some very impressive streaks where he's thrown with consistency and quality -- always to be derailed by injuries. He's a competitor.

I think a smart team would do well to take a flyer on him. Give this guy a break or two, and I think he'd be a real asset for some teams out there. I like him.

James Preller

Ernest Dove said...

Perhaps the Mets, similar to a couple other situations in past 4yrs under Sandy and co. , simply outsmarted themselves in the Ike deal.
Its not like a pitcher, where unfortunately there are a lot more injuries occurring, so obviously the Mets shoulda traded ike long before the season started............
Gee should get something decent in return, as soon as (hate to say it) someone else throughout league gets hurt in spring, or doesn't recover fast enough from whatever last year, or is young and stinks up the joint in spring and is sent to teams minorleague side for more seasoning.

Hobie said...

I hear this a lot: "the Mets could have traded X..."

Some of that might even be true when complete exchange is leaked (Syndergaard-Desmond-Zobrist), but most, the "trade X" without a "to" or "for" is just whistling through your hat. Ike would not have brought anymore earlier last winter--though probably would have the heels of his 30 HR season if that is what is implied.

There will be a time when the market price for Gee (Colon, Niese) will make sense. That hasn't happened yet and I for one am glad SA hasn't dumped him for an AAAA lefty or a once high-cieling disappointment.

Lew Rhodes said...

On Ike - let's not forget he got hurt last spring which limited his ST exposure and forced us to hold him too long.

Of course, if he did get more AB's and looked as bad as he did - we likely would have gotten less than we did!

I would be willing to bet Mack's season tickets to the Gnats that Gee is traded during ST when some team has an injury in their rotation.

Gee has value, and it will go up when injuries happen (and hey, it could be the Mets that lose a starter)

Lew Rhodes said...

Dave Cameron is either an idiot or someone trolling Mets' fan.

If Wright gets to 5.5 WAR, that adds 3 wins to last year - which is 82 - so the thought that the addition of Harvey and the vast improvement over last year's bench won't add 4 more wins is absurd.

And, we haven't even really addressed the April bullpen from last year.

I can recall 4 games off the top of my head that the bull pen blew in April (not counting Parnell on Opening Day) - the quality arms in the bull pen this April are way above what they were last April and that will add a couple of wins - and that is before Parnell comes back

Ernest Dove said...

Should be an interesting season for Terry Collins ;)
Watching Harvey innings while not pulling a Terry and simply pitch Torres and a lefty reliever every game, with Familia and Mejia also pitching two three days in a row.
Oh, and is Mets are built for close games and winning with pitching edge, perhaps don't overthink 'matchups'.... not when u got guys like black mejia and familia in your bullpen (I.e. someone explain to terry collins that young lefty Christian yelich HITS lefties)

Reese Kaplan said...

Don't bother trying to explain anything to Terry Collins. After all, by his own admission, "I'm not here to develop ballplayers."

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

I'm afraid that, like others have said, that Alderson doesn't react quickly and I can't see any scenario where TC gets the ax this season.

Sorry Reese.

Anonymous said...

The thing about Gee is that his value is not likely to go down in April or May, but there is a chance that injuries may increase his value, both internally or externally. If you are talking specifically about external value, I don't see any way that he could not get the same return in May that is available today, but he could bring back more, so why move him now? Chances are that he could be dealt right now if Sandy just wanted to get rid of his salary and that is likely to hold true early in the season
Anon Joe F

Anonymous said...

I'm in agreement about Gee, in terms of the timing of his trade; I don't mind if Sandy plays chicken on this one, trying to get the best deal possible, though I'd hate to see it negatively impact the regular season. Besides, I'd rather see Colon go.

An aside: I see more and more folks doing it these days, possibly because of the increased popularity of the "WAR" statistic, but I've never looked at players as "worth 2 wins" and so on, counting them up and announcing that the Mets will win X number of games this year. It's never made any sense to my understanding of baseball, where every detail effects everything else. It's just guesswork with mostly irrelevant math as far as I'm concerned.

James Preller

Mack Ade said...

You're absolutely right, James.

How was Yaz's HR 'worth one win'?

Or Piazza post 9-11 shot?

What happened was they played baseball with the talent God gave them

Ernest Dove said...

I still have NO idea about WAR......... But I believe 9R over I = ERA and the team with the most runs scored after the final out of the final inning is declared the winner........
Im still hoping Mets do THAT at least 82 times, and hopefully more.

bob gregory said...

Correct, nobody can definitely claim Ike could have been traded for more earlier.
To be fare Hobie...
You can not with certainty proclaim it was not possible for Ike to have been traded earlier for a better return.

Good or bad this is a major difference when you compare Minaya/Philips front offices to Alderson's. Information does not leak. Everything you read about or hear is based on speculation.

bob gregory said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bob gregory said...

Well put James.

bob gregory said...

Respectfully, it is never that simple.
Other teams make changes also.
Dave may also factor into his projections the dark cloud that has followed the Mets over the past few years, especially in regards to injuries with major impact.

Just doing my best to understand.

Hobie said...

Bob G-

"You can not with certainty proclaim it was not possible for Ike to have been traded earlier for a better return."

Absolutely probably not.

bob gregory said...

You like huh?

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