PROJECTION OF METS’ 2015
VS. 2014 OFFENSE – PITCHERS AND PINCH HITTERS - Tom Brennan
The Mets’ 2014 offense was offensive. 629 runs.
As Gomer Pyle would say, "Painful, painful, painful."
In terms of RBIs, the following lists the actual
results for 2014 and my projections for 2015.
I think that the Mets are capable of another 121 runs above last year’s
skimpy 629 (3.9 runs per game), bring us to 750, or 4.6 runs per game. I think 50 of those runs will be due to
shorter fences, and 70 runs will be due to better performances and better players.
P.S. the source of my 2014 stats were one of the
Mets’ website links.
Position
|
2014 RBIs
|
Projected 2015
|
Difference
|
First Base
|
96
|
110
|
+14
|
Second Base
|
73
|
70
|
-3
|
Shortstop
|
57
|
80
|
+23
|
Third Base
|
69
|
90
|
+21
|
Catcher
|
74
|
75
|
+1
|
Left Field
|
46
|
80
|
+34
|
Center Field
|
76
|
75
|
-1
|
Right Field
|
78
|
90
|
+12
|
Pinch Hitting
|
18
|
30
|
+12
|
Pitchers
|
12
|
20
|
+8
|
TOTALS
|
599
|
720
|
+121
|
That run production increase, plus Harvey’s
return, a full year of deGrom, and a stronger bullpen starting the season, and
I think we could win 86-94 games in 2015. Most target us for less. I think that’s the range.
This is article 6 of 6. I have summarized my thoughts regarding each
position’s projections in previous articles, which included 1st base and 2nd
base; shortstop and 3rd base; catcher; and outfield.
PINCH HITTING:
A weak point
for the Mets in 2014. 215 official at
bats, 14 runs, 18 RBIs, and a .181 average.
About a .250 on base %. 64
strikeouts. Let me restate that. I said weak – it was VERY weak. OK, you got me to say it - friggin' atrocious.
I think it
was an extraordinarily bad year for the pinch hitters, and while it is sheer
guess work to project 2015 pinch hitting (starting with one basic, will there
be more pinch hitting appearances or less), I think I am being conservative to boost those numbers to
.225, 30 runs and 30 RBIs. A low
threshold for the pinch hitters after a miserable pinch hitting 2014.
PITCHERS:
We’re in the
NL – pitchers have to hit. Or at least try, right, Bartolo?Their stats
count. Jake to the rescue after his call up in 2014, with his 10
for 45. The rest? A painful (even for pitchers) 17 for 254 (.066).
So the staff
was 27 for 299 total (.090) and 12 RBIs in total. Even for pitchers, collectively that was incredibly
below par.
The good news here is Harvey
is a better hitter than the likely-to-exit Gee, and we’ll get a full year of deGrom,
and somehow the rest of the guys can’t be that bad again. Let’s assume our pitchers will hit .140, with 20 RBIs, plus a boost of
10 runs scored. I think that is
conservative.
So just in the areas of pinch hitting and pitchers' hitting alone, the Mets could get a significant boost over 2014 just by being mediocre.
That's it for my comparative offense series. Hope I did not offend you. But I hope the Mets' offense offends a lot of other pitching staffs in 2015, making Mets fans deliriously happy. I think they will score 120 more runs, and that should ignite delirium and joy in Metsville.
Have a great day.
4 comments:
As an afterthought, I thought I'd see how other NL teams did with their pinch hitting. Much to my surprise, the other 14 teams collectively also stunk at pinch hitting overall: .211 with 27 RBIs. A sign of how strong late inning pitching is.
A scary thought is the Nats only hit .143 in 210 pinch hitting at bats. They also ought to improve.
Similarly, other teams' pitchers had 10 more hits on average vs. the Mets and had the same # of RBIs as Mets' pitchers on average. Amazingly, the high RBI mark for any team was 19.
So with a little research, I have to ratchet down my projection of 50 RBIs for pitchers and pinch hitters by about 10, to line them up with the other teams' averages. That would lower my overall projection for the team from 750 to 740 - still too high for Eraff, I'm sure, but closing the gap between us a bit :)
740 runs is a very High Hope....the fact that you also project 92 wins WITH 740 runs is an almost equal head scratcher.
Those runs with this pitching= 96-101 wins.
Oh boy---I look forward to ACTUAL games.
Your lowest RBI Positions have 70 and 75-80 RBI's. Assuming a generally set lineup, we should see some fairly "regular" guys hitting 1st, 2nd and 8th. so, I'm thinking that it's fairly rare that 1st, 2nd and 8th place National League hitters get that many RBI
Reyes had a 78 RbI Year in a spectacular individual performance in an 800 run Lineup!!!
I'm hoping the get well into the 670-690's...maybe take a charge at 700----THAT would mean Play Offs!
We're a ways apart, Eraff...but not that far. I will hold to my 740, and the Mets will have to prove me wrong.
I did not do a similar estimate last year, but would have guessed at around 650 runs if I had. I'm much more optimistic offensively than last year.
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