2/20/15

Tom Brennan - PROJECTIONS OF METS OFFENSE 2014 VS 2015: PITCHERS AND PINCH HITTERS

4 comments

PROJECTION OF METS’ 2015 VS. 2014 OFFENSE – PITCHERS AND PINCH HITTERS - Tom Brennan

The Mets’ 2014 offense was offensive.  629 runs. 
As Gomer Pyle would say, "Painful, painful, painful."

 I decided to forecast 2015 production with the Mets’ likely 2015 players.  Trades and injuries are a part of the game and could alter my projections down the road, but you gotta start somewhere.

 I am going position by position, seeing what happened last year and what I think for 2015, and figure out the projected aggregate differential.

In terms of RBIs, the following lists the actual results for 2014 and my projections for 2015.  I think that the Mets are capable of another 121 runs above last year’s skimpy 629 (3.9 runs per game), bring us to 750, or 4.6 runs per game.  I think 50 of those runs will be due to shorter fences, and 70 runs will be due to better performances and better players.

P.S. the source of my 2014 stats were one of the Mets’ website links.

Position
2014 RBIs
Projected 2015
Difference
First Base
96
110
+14
Second Base
73
70
-3
Shortstop
57
80
+23
Third Base
69
90
+21
Catcher
74
75
+1
Left Field
46
80
+34
Center Field
76
75
-1
Right Field
78
90
+12
Pinch Hitting
18
30
+12
Pitchers
12
20
+8
TOTALS
599
720
+121

 Let’s say 720 RBIs equate to 750 total runs. 

 Projections are just that, projections.  My guesswork. 

 Let’s go plus/minus 40 to address uncertainty – that said, I am projecting the Mets will score 710 – 790 runs in 2015.

That run production increase, plus Harvey’s return, a full year of deGrom, and a stronger bullpen starting the season, and I think we could win 86-94 games in 2015. Most target us for less.  I think that’s the range.

This is article 6 of 6.  I have summarized my thoughts regarding each position’s projections in previous articles, which included 1st base and 2nd base; shortstop and 3rd base; catcher; and outfield.
The offense of pitchers & pinch hitters is the subject of today’s article.

PINCH HITTING:


A weak point for the Mets in 2014.  215 official at bats, 14 runs, 18 RBIs, and a .181 average.  About a .250 on base %.  64 strikeouts.  Let me restate that.  I said weak – it was VERY weak. OK, you got me to say it - friggin' atrocious.      


I think it was an extraordinarily bad year for the pinch hitters, and while it is sheer guess work to project 2015 pinch hitting (starting with one basic, will there be more pinch hitting appearances or less), I think I am being conservative to boost those numbers to .225, 30 runs and 30 RBIs.  A low threshold for the pinch hitters after a miserable pinch hitting 2014.

PITCHERS:

We’re in the NL – pitchers have to hit.  Or at least try, right, Bartolo?Their stats count.  Jake to the rescue after his call up in 2014, with his 10 for 45.  The rest? A painful (even for pitchers) 17 for 254 (.066). 

So the staff was 27 for 299 total (.090) and 12 RBIs in total.  Even for pitchers, collectively that was incredibly below par. 
The good news here is Harvey is a better hitter than the likely-to-exit Gee, and we’ll get a full year of deGrom, and somehow the rest of the guys can’t be that bad again.  Let’s assume our pitchers will hit .140, with 20 RBIs, plus a boost of 10 runs scored.  I think that is conservative.

So just in the areas of pinch hitting and pitchers' hitting alone, the Mets could get a significant boost over 2014 just by being mediocre.
That's it for my comparative offense series.  Hope I did not offend you. But I hope the Mets' offense offends a lot of other pitching staffs in 2015, making Mets fans deliriously happy.  I think they will score 120 more runs, and that should ignite delirium and joy in Metsville.
Have a great day.

4 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

As an afterthought, I thought I'd see how other NL teams did with their pinch hitting. Much to my surprise, the other 14 teams collectively also stunk at pinch hitting overall: .211 with 27 RBIs. A sign of how strong late inning pitching is.

A scary thought is the Nats only hit .143 in 210 pinch hitting at bats. They also ought to improve.

Similarly, other teams' pitchers had 10 more hits on average vs. the Mets and had the same # of RBIs as Mets' pitchers on average. Amazingly, the high RBI mark for any team was 19.

So with a little research, I have to ratchet down my projection of 50 RBIs for pitchers and pinch hitters by about 10, to line them up with the other teams' averages. That would lower my overall projection for the team from 750 to 740 - still too high for Eraff, I'm sure, but closing the gap between us a bit :)

eraff said...

740 runs is a very High Hope....the fact that you also project 92 wins WITH 740 runs is an almost equal head scratcher.

Those runs with this pitching= 96-101 wins.

Oh boy---I look forward to ACTUAL games.

eraff said...

Your lowest RBI Positions have 70 and 75-80 RBI's. Assuming a generally set lineup, we should see some fairly "regular" guys hitting 1st, 2nd and 8th. so, I'm thinking that it's fairly rare that 1st, 2nd and 8th place National League hitters get that many RBI

Reyes had a 78 RbI Year in a spectacular individual performance in an 800 run Lineup!!!

I'm hoping the get well into the 670-690's...maybe take a charge at 700----THAT would mean Play Offs!



Thomas Brennan said...

We're a ways apart, Eraff...but not that far. I will hold to my 740, and the Mets will have to prove me wrong.

I did not do a similar estimate last year, but would have guessed at around 650 runs if I had. I'm much more optimistic offensively than last year.

Mack's Mets © 2012