2/5/15

Mack – Morning Report – 2- 5 – Bartolo Colon, Amed Rosario, Steven Matz, Dominic Smith

19 comments



New Mets #’s - TdA #7, Mayberry #44, Matz #32, Syndergaard #34, Mazzoni #47 and Leathersich #51 



"We simply were not going to trade Noah Syndergaard." - Sandy Alderson




Daniel Marino -

Last season, before Spring Training began, I blogged how the Mets would rue the day they signed Bartolo Colon.  The Mets did not need Colon...not on a team that was going nowhere.  His spot should have, and could have been filled by Noah Syndergaard.  Many will argue that Syndergaard wasn't ready, but were his struggles a result of not being ready, or because he pitches in the thin air of Las Vegas?  And if the Mets were out of contention, why not let him or Rafael Montero join the rotation in Colon's spot?  Had that plan been in place, perhaps Steven Matz could be starting this season as the Mets number five starter.  And not only did Colon's presence stunt the young guns growth, but his $11 million dollar salary took up any salary that could have been used for free agent bats - 




Keith Law on Amed Rosario -

           This was passed on to me by a reader. The video includes information on three players that just missed making the top 100.
           It’s interesting that Law went out of his way to showcase Rosario here, who I feel is odds on favorite of someday replacing everyone else in the Mets chain that claims to be a starting shortstop. It’s just going to take some time here for the kid to develop.
           We’re discussed this before. He turned 19 this past November and will most probably start off the 2015 season in Savannah, possibly splitting time with one of the other hot shot defensive shortstops, Luis Guillorme.  A path to St. Lucie will open up as soon as Gavin Cecchini is promoted to Binghamton.


More Amed, this time from BP:

                  Amed Rosario, Mets - The recipient of the highest international bonus in club history, the Mets have challenged Rosario with aggressive assignment since he signed two years ago. He performed with aplomb during his most recent campaign, slashing .289/.337/.380 in short-season Brooklyn at only 18 years old. There’s a chance that Rosario shifts to third base down the line thanks to a solid frame, but his arm could be an impact weapon and help him stick at the more valuable spot. It’s likely the Mets will give him every chance to stick at shortstop, so don’t worry too much about his positional value just yet. Rosario has some of the biggest growth potential in terms of prospect lists, both real and fantasy, thanks to quick hands that generate impressive bat speed, and allow him to show more power than you might think given his current lank. Long term, we’re looking at a player who could have three league-average offensive tools while playing a premium position.

Mack – Everybody seems to be getting on the Amed-train early, which is just fine by me. As I have said in the past, this is my future starting shortstop in 2018… however…  I love the comment that he could be converted to third base down the line. Rosario on third, Herrera on second, Wright on first… hmm..


John Harper on Steven Matz -

Certainly there is something about Matz that inspires visions of greatness. Last year Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen compared him to another lefty, one Clayton Kershaw, raving about how explosively the ball comes out of his hand.

And now Frank Viola, the Mets’ Triple-A pitching coach whom Matz credits for teaching him the mental part of pitching when they were both in Class-A Savannah in 2013, invokes the name of the lefty who all but singlehandedly won the World Series for the Giants last season. Yep, Madison Bumgarner. - 



Mack – Big words coming from talented Mets coaches. Again, Matz is going to have to stand in line (he’s not being blocked!) to get his shot, which should come either sometime after the 2015 all-star break or opening day 2016. I sure hope its 2016 and everybody just lets the kid build up innings this year. 



More from Karl de Vries Juan Lagares

                            For a guy who hit just 31 home runs with a .403 slugging percentage in 633 minor league games, there’s little reason to expect a double-digit dinger spike or a bunch of RBIs. His potential to deliver 20 steals, however, is much more intriguing; manager Terry Collins says Lagares is the early candidate to bat leadoff for the Mets, where he swiped nine bags (just four less than his season’s total) in 37 starts last year. This was a guy who stole 21 bases in Double-A as recently as three years ago, and if he can improve on his ugly walk rate, he might be a cheap source of steals off the waiver wire for owners in deeper mixed leagues.


Jim Callis on players that just missed his Top 100 prospect list

                            Amed Rosario, SS, Mets - All of his tools grade as solid or better with the exception of his power, and he still might grow into 15-homer pop that would give him more than most shortstops.

                            Dominic Smith, 1B, Mets - Which is the real Dominic Smith -- the guy who got drafted 11th overall in 2013 because of his premium bat and power, or the one who hit just .271/.344/.338 with one homer in low Class A?

          http://m.mlb.com/news/article/108243276/callis-breaking-down-the-prospects-who-just-missed-the-top-100

19 comments:

Christopher Soto said...

I have to vehemently disagree with Marino.

Syndergaard showed and acknowledge himself that he still needed to work on a few things in the minors leagues and was not ready for the MLB last season.

As for Matz....the kid has only 12 starts above Advanced A so far in his career. He was never going to be ready for the MLB before July of 2015 irregardless.

The Colon signing was a perfectly fine one. The guy won 15 games last year! You know how many guys won more than 15 games last year???......13....thats right....13 pitchers in the entire MLB had more wins than Colon.

Leave him alone already he is a perfect workhorse complement to take the pressure off the young guys in the rotation and in the bullpen.

As a side note.....the hype around Steven Matz is getting a bit out of hand. There are guys now saying that he could be just as good as Kershaw.....No!! Matz is a strong prospect but Kershaw is a once in a lifetime pitcher. Matz is not that.

Realistically one can assume that Matz's ceiling right now is as a 3.30 ERA, 14 win, solid #3 SP....aka a slighty better Jon Niese.

Christopher Soto said...

Going on about the 15 wins Colon got us.....Amongst the 13 pitchers who had more wins...only all of the potential CY Young candidates from last year.

Kershaw
Wainwright
Cueto
Kluber
Scherzer
Bumgarner
Grienke
Lester
Fister

Thomas Brennan said...

A future IF of Rosario at 3B, Herrera at 2B, and Wright at 1B....and of course Matt Reynolds at SS. Could be Flores, could be someone else. Let's see.

Duda will be younger and maybe better than Wright in 2018. Maybe by then, Wright is our 2018 Cuddyer.

I love our young stud pitchers. I want both Matz and Thor in Flushing in 2015.

Thomas Brennan said...

Another great article in NY Post today, this time on Duda. He is convinced the best is yet to come. He is working hard to prove he'll hit lefties much better.

One article after another on Met players exudes excitement and confidence. This will be a breakout year.

Lew Rhodes said...

Chris I couldn't agree with you more - Marino shows an abundance of ignorance in the development of young pitchers with his comment

Of course, what do i expect from someone named Dan Marino?

Forgot Colon's 15 wins - that wasn't the value he added - the value he added was the 202 innings he pitched.

Young arms need to be protected from over work -- Syndergaard was 21 last year - Matz didn't even make it to AAA

Not to mention, having a starter log 200 IP helps protect the bullpen arms as well - last I check the Mets had a VERY YOUNG bullpen as well.

Nothing irks me more than someone popping off about a "bad signing" "ruining" a team or a season when they don't know what the heck they are talking about.

Even this year, Colon can handle the crappy, inconsistent cold weather in April while Matz and Thor are babied along slowly in AAA -- heck, if Colon can go 7-8 IP in April / May, it will also allow the Mets to keep Harvey's innings low early in the season.

Frankly I don't care if Colon's arm falls off in June - and no one on the Mets does either.

His contract was all about eating inning and protecting the young arms in the rotation and bull pen - PERIOD.

Any above average performance from him was just a benefit.

Lew Rhodes said...

Any body else notice this:

Matz - #32

Harvey - #33

Thor - #34

We need to have Wheeler and deGrom change their numbers to #35 / #36

(Piazza's 31 is retired, right? If not it should be!)

Ernest Dove said...

Yeah Soto I agree the Matz hype is getting nutty, but almost pitching a no hitter in the championship game at the AA (Macks show me something level) is pretty damn impressive.
At this point I think writers/fans and the like are stuck between wanting every young pitcher to be the next Cy Young multiple winner, and also simply not admitting to Matz having SP1/2 potential simply because the organization has been hitting so much already in past 2 years with harvey wheeler and degrom.
Its possible they would all be potential SP1s on other teams and be in same Mets rotation because they still under team control, so consider them lucky as a franchise, hope for good health, ane hope for a title before the domino effect of their arb and FA process begins in a few years.

Anonymous said...

so two professional pitching coaches declaring him a front line ace is overhyping, but we are supposed to accept your ceiling for Matz as slightly better than Niese? a little presumptuous on your part, no? Evaluating ceilings, high or low, before the pitch in the majors is an exercise in futility, just ask Jacob deGrom

TP said...

@ Chris,
I enjoy watching Colon pitch, but in retrospect (Monday morning QB) this was not a good signing. Not that a kid should have been rushed, so I agree with you on that part, but 15 wins on a team going nowhere really doesn't mean much. No knock on Bartolo, he certainly did his job, but the reality is they did not even contend for the playoffs last year, couldn't move him at the trade deadline or over the winter, and now have a surplus of starters without much of a market. Time will tell in 2015, but I'd bet Sandy would part with him and that $11 million today for a fungo bat (again, no know on Bartolo).

Christopher Soto said...

@Anonymous

Professional Pitching Coaches....from inside the organization. The organization has every reason to overhype prospects.

Giving Matz a ceiling of better than Niese is not so much a knock on Matz as it is a positive for Niese.

Niese is a lot better than people give him credit for. He hovers around a 3.40 ERA with 7 K's per 9 innings and is good enough to get you 12-14 wins. That's a solid #3 MLB SP in my book. What holds Niese back is his health.

So slightly better than Niese would put Matz in line for a 3.30 ERA, 13-15 wins and 8 K's per inning. I don't know a single person who wouldn't sign up for that.

Since you brought up deGrom.....For what its worth, while I did not expect to be as good as he was in 2014. I did give him a ceiling of a #3/#4 MLB SP, declared him a breakout candidate, and ranked him 7th amongst our Top 25 prospects. Pretty sure I was the only blogger to rank him that high last year.

http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2014/02/mms-top-25-7-rhsp-jacob-degrom.html

Ernest Dove said...

Colon and his 2nd yr on contract can be just as valuable and well deserved as the first. ......
Harvey wheeler degrom Matz and Syndergaard will not be all magically pitching 200 innings in 2015, even if perfectly healthy and saying 'pretty please may I'........ there also obviously guarantees that Niese comes close again either.
Hopefully Colon pitches 7 innings plus every 5th day, and keep ERA around 4.00-4.25 and gives team a chance to do what everyone wants them to do, win more then lose overall.

Thomas Brennan said...

Terry Collins applies Colon every 5th day - but Collins still stinks!

Colon s/b here until July, maybe the whole year - he does devour innings. Can't predict now what will happen by mid year - too many variables.

Mack Ade said...

IMO -

Colon was a great sign and worth every penny.

James Preller said...

Hate the Colon signing. Should have been a one-year deal for a Harang/Capuano type. He's not needed this season at all, and last year they won 79 games. Big waste of money for a team on a tight budget.

He pitched well last year, I like him, but a dumb move for this team.

The Mets would be much better off this season is he disappeared -- and the club had the $11 million to spend elsewhere. Does anyone think otherwise?

Again: The Mets would be better off if he disappeared.

bob gregory said...

Colon was not a bad signing in my opinion because of many of the reasons listed above.
Going back to the "Mack as GM" fantasy from a previous Morning Report, I am sure Mack would have completed the other aspect that would have made sense by trading him in July or August last year.

Alderson. .......not so much

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

Good plan.

Colon was a great sign for 2014, but I definitely would have moved him by now for 2015... probably would have trade him during the second part of last season.

Still, in my opinion, a good sign.

Anthony Carnacchio said...

Colon is here for his veteran leadership, to show the kids how to pitch in the bigs, offer advice, provide guidance. His signing goes beyond wins and losses , he's like a senior on a team with all freshman.

eraff said...

Colon's signing: Let's say you signed Byrd Last Year--- and maybe you didn't sign Colon (and Young)... that would have left you with Cuddyer's money (Plus) to sign/trade for a SS. It would have left the team with a bigger budget for guys they sign/huys they trade for.

Their "gambit" on signing Colon and Young----they ACTUALLY believed they could compete and make a run with that team.

That's the really scary part....these guys don;t seem to have a handle on assembling a big league squad--- we'll see if THIS Low Speed, Low Defense roster will cut it.

Anonymous said...

Re: the low speed, low defense approach.

Maybe Sandy needs to keep moving the fences in, because he sure didn't assemble a team to play in the old Citi Field. I guess as the stadium plays closer to neutral, those weaknesses will be less glaring.

James Preller

Mack's Mets © 2012