8/3/15

Mack’s Morning Report – 8-3-15 – Nats Confident, Future Starters, Tim Stauffer, Travis d’Arnaud

17 comments


Good morning.


After being swept by the Mets, the preseason World Series favorites were now co-tenants of the NL East penthouse, sharing the space with a team that hadn’t posted a winning season since Shea Stadium crumbled.

In the disappointment, and likely disbelief, there was no different feeling about how the standings would look in October, with Sunday’s losing starter, Jordan Zimmermann, stating facing the upgraded Mets is no more challenging than it was a month ago.

“I wouldn’t say it’s any more difficult,” Zimmermann said. “You make your pitches, you can get any of those guys out over there. Tonight was one of those nights where I made two mistakes and it looks a lot worse than it really was.


“We’re fine. We’re going to bounce back and there’s nobody in here that’s panicking right now.” - http://nypost.com/2015/08/03/nationals-not-worried-new-look-mets-no-more-difficult/

                      Mack - I guess these are all the right things you have to say after getting your ass handed to you for three straight games, but I can't see why anyone on Washington would want to keep their Bryce Harper-led arrogance out there in print so the Mets can hang their words on their lockers when they come to tow for the last three games in October.

All those recent gut wrenching loses and we're tied for first in August... whodda thunk it?



Jeurys Familia in July: 13 games, 6 saves, 3 blown saves, 13.2 innings pitched,14 hits, 7 R, 2 BB, 12 SO, 2 HR, 4.61 ERA, .255/.293/.455 BAA

Carlos Torres in May: 8 games, 11 innings pitched, 11 hits, 3 runs , 2 walks, 14 strikeouts, 1 homerun, 2.45 ERA, .275/.302/.400 BAA

Sean Gilmartin in July: 6 games, 6.2 innings pitched, 9 hits, 3 runs , 3 walks, 10 strikeouts, 0 homeruns, 4.05 ERA, .333/.400/.370 BAA

Bobby Parnell in July: 9 games, 8 innings pitched, 12 hits, 8 runs, 5 walks, 3 strikeouts, 0 homeruns, 9.00 ERA, .375/.459/.469 BAA

Alex Torres in July: 8 games, 9.1 innings pitched, 7 hits, 9 runs (5 earned runs), 8 walks, 6 strikeouts, 3 HR, 4.82 ERA, .206/.357/.500 BAA

Hansel Robles in July: 9 games, 10 innings pitched, 6 hits, 2 runs , 3 walks, 11 strikeouts, 2 homeruns, 1.80 ERA, .176/.243/.412 BAA


We here at Mack’s Mets need to take a step back and try and rank the top five starters left in the Mets minor league affiliates, based on projected time that they could be ready to play at the professional level. Let’s face it, the system has been hit pretty big sending key pitching out to secure 2-month rentals that will hopefully turn this team around and make the playoffs.

I’m going to ask Tom Brennan to peek in on what I’m writing here and add his thoughts as well.

For now, my thoughts are based on pitchers I expect to come back next year, meaning, no Dillon Gee.

1.        Rafael Montero – ETA: 2015 – I still think Montero has middle of the rotation potential, but we may have to wait this one out. Also, there still is a chance he could first begin in the Mets pen again.

2.        Zack Wheeler – ETA: July 2016 – Definitely SP1-3 starter. Frankly, I see very little pressure on him in 2016, a year he probably will return as the SP5.

3.        Gabiel Ynoa – ETA: July 2016 – The next three guys all have the SP5 potential most pitching staffs are looking for. The 22-year old is 8-7, 3.81 (19 starts) for Binghamton this year. Also, could be the next trade chip.

4.        Seth Lugo – ETA: July 2016 – The 25-year old is 6-5, 3.55 (18 starts) for Binghamton this year. Another possible trade chip.

5.        Robert Gsselman – July 2016 – Only 21-years old and 11-5 this year for St. Lucie/Binghamton. Remember this name.



Tom Brennan - no team can promote a Syndergaard and Matz, and trade Fulmer, Cessa, Whelan, Gant, and Wieck and not take a real step back in minor league pitchers having major league potential.  That said, I like 4 of the 5 in Mack's list - except for Wheeler, who really is a disabled major leaguer.  If Montero had not been injured virtually the whole year, he'd almost have been in the same boat.

So I'd swap them out of the list for 2 other minor leaguers a bit further down the food chain.  Martires Arias and Logan Taylor

I add Arias, thinking of him as a very tall dude who developed slowly, was in rookie ball the start of last year...and has gone 12-4 since, with an ERA of 2.00.  He threw one excellent start in St Lucie, then was sent back to Savannah, which seems puzzling.  My guess is they want him pitching in Gnats playoff games (what they did with Matz there).  I think he moves fast starting next year, ETA of mid-2017 as a starter (if needed), pen arm, or trade bait.

Logan Taylor had a Fulmer-like stretch of injuries, but the 23 year old in St Lucie has had only one bad start in his last 10 games and is pitching healthy in 2015, so he is clearly progressing.  I see him as trade bait this time next year, similar to John Gant, and ML ready as a back end starter in 2017.


Two that are further away are Marcos Molina (only if healthy) and Max Wotell, this year's 3rd rounder who is just 18 but has hit the ground running in relief in the GCL: 5.1 IP, 1 H, 10K.



The Mets signed a new starter this week.

Tim Stauffer was signed to bolster the depleted Las Vegas rotation. The 33-year old ex-2003 first rounder (4th pick overall by San Diego) has pitched for 10 seasons in the majors, going 33-34, 3.94. He hasn’t started since 2011 when he went 9-12, 3.73, in 31 starts, for San Diego.
Welcome.


Travis d’Arnaud http://www.pressconnects.com/story/sports/2015/07/31/task-gets-taller-mets-michael-conforto/30930727/ talked about the difficult transition from the minors to the majors:

"When you've got guys out there who are major-league pitchers who know exactly where the ball is going every time, it's hard to hit when your mind is not on the pitch. There are so many different things that go on, especially in New York City, that can distract you or that can take your thoughts away from a pitch coming at you. For me, the key was to just remember it's baseball and just have the same approach and same routine every day."

Mack – d’Arnaud looks a little rusty out there right now, but I’m sure he’s going to come around by mid-August and add to the strength of the middle lineup.

The Mets next ten series:

Miami, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Colorado, Philly, Boston, Philly, Miami.



A nice story on recently added St, Lucie knuckleballer Mickey Jannis http://www.astrometsmind.com/2015/07/the-mets-added-indy-league.html

17 comments:

Cody Pomeray said...

Hi, good morning everybody. Great win last night.

Couple of questions:

1. Does anyone know what happened to Luis Mateo? Wasn't he highly thought of at one point?

And 2. Does anyone see Domingo Tapia one day recovering from TJS and contributing to the major league bullpen?

Two semi-forgotten guys. Just thought I'd ask. Ty.

Thomas Brennan said...

The Mets certainly caught the nation's attention last night, with the third of 3 tremendous starting performances vs. a clearly tough Nats line up. the Mets have drastically improved their offense and their starting pitching has been strong, and I guess there will be an update on Matz that he can start throwing. He could relieve in Sept, or Niese or Colon to pen and he starts.

Wilmer had his Jerry Maguire moment and has two key hits Friday, just missed one Saturday, and doubled off the wall Sunday. I think the love he got has made him feel accepted and loved, and he will hit better the rest of the way. Lots of good things, and a weak remaining schedule, so let's win this thing.

Thomas Brennan said...

Ty, Luis Mateo had discomfort last year so they shut him down. He started to pitch again July 1 in relief, has worked his way up to Savannah, and looks close to the old Luis: 13 IP, just 6 H, 3 BB, and 12 Ks, ERA 0.69. Seems on his way back. Perhaps in the 2016 pen? He was I believe ranked a #9 Mets prospect after his Brooklyn stellar 2012 season.

Tania? Maybe the Tommy John fixes him, but he was a puzzling low K, high BB guy. Only time will tell.

Ernest Dove said...

Not a lot of 'sexy' names out there in the farm system in regards to starting pitchers, but as I've said before this team has now immediately turned into a hitting dominated farm.

Cody Pomeray said...

Thomas, thanks.

Weird you can throw as hard as Tapia did and still have a low SO9 in the minors. I think I have a hard time moving on from guys who throw 100 MPH.

Speaking of hard throwers, any chance Josh Smoker is in the majors next year, if not this one as a Septemeber call-up? AA pitcher, former first round pick, LH who throws 98. But also alas yet another LHP who's not a LOOGY, has reverse splits from what I can see.

—Cody

Christopher Soto said...

@Cody

Mateo has resumed throwing this season. The club is SLOWLY bringing him back and so far he has looked pretty good. Haven't heard anything about his pitch velocity but the K's are there.

Before all his injuries I had him in the same boat as Ynoa....a solid prospect with a ceiling as a potential #3 MLB pitcher. If he comes back 100% and flashes his 2012 self with the B-Mets....he'll shoot up everyone's prospect lists.

As for Tapia....unfortunately...I do not see him contributing to the MLB in the future. Everything I've seen happen to him over the past 12 months suggest that he's flamed out. Maybe he comes back throwing 100mph again....but at this point we can't count on it.

Christopher Soto said...

@Cody

REF: 2nd comment in regards to Tapia

Yea he threw ridiculously hard but he always suffered from "Bobby Parnell syndrome".

A 100 mph fastball that is straight as an arrow is easier to hit than a 91 mph fastball that breaks 5 inches in.

Ref: Smoker

Smoker has been superb for the Binghamton club this season. With the Leathersich injury and Logan Verrett stretching back out as a SP....Smoker could be the next man up in case of injury at the MLB level.

Hobie said...

Mack-

Thanks for the Jannis article link. 27 isn't geriatric for a K-baller; will be tracking him.

Thomas -

I see Jose Medina (who had a rough 1t year state-side as a 17 yr old) is putting up DSL numbers in limited relief (10. IP, 0.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP with 8 K and zero BB). Any thoughts?

Ernest Dove said...

Oh wait what about Matt Bowman? Kinda highly thought of before this years christening into the PCL.
Although, my non expert eye ball test of him during spring game this year saw EVERYBODY hit him HARD, regardless of resulting in a hit or out.

Cody Pomeray said...

Hey, Christopher, thanks for the insight. I'll keep my eyes peeled for Smoker. LGM tonight! I think Colon getting it together could be a somewhat overlooked key for this stretch run.

Lew Rhodes said...

Wilmer showed the fans that he loves being a Met in a way that couldn't have been more real

Because of that, the fans will now love him back

Now, let's hope he keeps hitting like he did this weekend - I think he becomes our Zobrist - can play all 4 infield positions

Lew Rhodes said...

I have to say I am not too worried about the pitching prospects left in the minors - we have a stud staff locked up for 4 years - we have time to draft and develop the next stud - hell I see Wotell and Sixto being ready in 4 years

Now the system needs to turn out some bats to pair with our stud pitching - Conforto, Cecchini, Smith, Rosario and Nimmo are still here and will give us so.some hitting to pair with Mack's Fab Five

Lew Rhodes said...

I have to say I am not too worried about the pitching prospects left in the minors - we have a stud staff locked up for 4 years - we have time to draft and develop the next stud - hell I see Wotell and Sixto being ready in 4 years

Now the system needs to turn out some bats to pair with our stud pitching - Conforto, Cecchini, Smith, Rosario and Nimmo are still here and will give us so.some hitting to pair with Mack's Fab Five

Thomas Brennan said...

Smoker could be the real deal. Let's also keep Dario Alvarez in mind. Truly sensational since My e started...18 innings, 5 hits, 28 Ks. 6 Ks in 3 scoreless innings in Vegas so far. Josh has been impressive, but Dario the past 2 months: unreal.

I have no input at this time on Jose Medina. Anyone who does, feel free to chime in.

Mack Ade said...

Hobie -

Media is only 18 so the world is an oyster; however, far too early to project

Thomas Brennan said...

Bowman has been very hittable with low K rate in AAA. He's not top 5 based on that. Hopefully he figures it out.

Re: my prior comment: Dario Alvarez has done that extraordinary pitching since JUNE started.

Metsiac said...

Waaaay under the radar, Scott Rice is having a fine season (ERA a little over two in hitters' paradise PCL). And he's a true LOOGY who was successful in Queens before being injured.

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