Mack’s Morning Report – 8-3-15 – Nats Confident, Future Starters, Tim Stauffer, Travis d’Arnaud

Good morning.

After being swept by the Mets, the preseason World Series favorites were now co-tenants of the NL East penthouse, sharing the space with a team that hadn’t posted a winning season since Shea Stadium crumbled.

In the disappointment, and likely disbelief, there was no different feeling about how the standings would look in October, with Sunday’s losing starter, Jordan Zimmermann, stating facing the upgraded Mets is no more challenging than it was a month ago.

“I wouldn’t say it’s any more difficult,” Zimmermann said. “You make your pitches, you can get any of those guys out over there. Tonight was one of those nights where I made two mistakes and it looks a lot worse than it really was.

“We’re fine. We’re going to bounce back and there’s nobody in here that’s panicking right now.” - http://nypost.com/2015/08/03/nationals-not-worried-new-look-mets-no-more-difficult/

                      Mack - I guess these are all the right things you have to say after getting your ass handed to you for three straight games, but I can't see why anyone on Washington would want to keep their Bryce Harper-led arrogance out there in print so the Mets can hang their words on their lockers when they come to tow for the last three games in October.

All those recent gut wrenching loses and we're tied for first in August... whodda thunk it?

Jeurys Familia in July: 13 games, 6 saves, 3 blown saves, 13.2 innings pitched,14 hits, 7 R, 2 BB, 12 SO, 2 HR, 4.61 ERA, .255/.293/.455 BAA

Carlos Torres in May: 8 games, 11 innings pitched, 11 hits, 3 runs , 2 walks, 14 strikeouts, 1 homerun, 2.45 ERA, .275/.302/.400 BAA

Sean Gilmartin in July: 6 games, 6.2 innings pitched, 9 hits, 3 runs , 3 walks, 10 strikeouts, 0 homeruns, 4.05 ERA, .333/.400/.370 BAA

Bobby Parnell in July: 9 games, 8 innings pitched, 12 hits, 8 runs, 5 walks, 3 strikeouts, 0 homeruns, 9.00 ERA, .375/.459/.469 BAA

Alex Torres in July: 8 games, 9.1 innings pitched, 7 hits, 9 runs (5 earned runs), 8 walks, 6 strikeouts, 3 HR, 4.82 ERA, .206/.357/.500 BAA

Hansel Robles in July: 9 games, 10 innings pitched, 6 hits, 2 runs , 3 walks, 11 strikeouts, 2 homeruns, 1.80 ERA, .176/.243/.412 BAA

We here at Mack’s Mets need to take a step back and try and rank the top five starters left in the Mets minor league affiliates, based on projected time that they could be ready to play at the professional level. Let’s face it, the system has been hit pretty big sending key pitching out to secure 2-month rentals that will hopefully turn this team around and make the playoffs.

I’m going to ask Tom Brennan to peek in on what I’m writing here and add his thoughts as well.

For now, my thoughts are based on pitchers I expect to come back next year, meaning, no Dillon Gee.

1.        Rafael Montero – ETA: 2015 – I still think Montero has middle of the rotation potential, but we may have to wait this one out. Also, there still is a chance he could first begin in the Mets pen again.

2.        Zack Wheeler – ETA: July 2016 – Definitely SP1-3 starter. Frankly, I see very little pressure on him in 2016, a year he probably will return as the SP5.

3.        Gabiel Ynoa – ETA: July 2016 – The next three guys all have the SP5 potential most pitching staffs are looking for. The 22-year old is 8-7, 3.81 (19 starts) for Binghamton this year. Also, could be the next trade chip.

4.        Seth Lugo – ETA: July 2016 – The 25-year old is 6-5, 3.55 (18 starts) for Binghamton this year. Another possible trade chip.

5.        Robert Gsselman – July 2016 – Only 21-years old and 11-5 this year for St. Lucie/Binghamton. Remember this name.

Tom Brennan - no team can promote a Syndergaard and Matz, and trade Fulmer, Cessa, Whelan, Gant, and Wieck and not take a real step back in minor league pitchers having major league potential.  That said, I like 4 of the 5 in Mack's list - except for Wheeler, who really is a disabled major leaguer.  If Montero had not been injured virtually the whole year, he'd almost have been in the same boat.

So I'd swap them out of the list for 2 other minor leaguers a bit further down the food chain.  Martires Arias and Logan Taylor. 

I add Arias, thinking of him as a very tall dude who developed slowly, was in rookie ball the start of last year...and has gone 12-4 since, with an ERA of 2.00.  He threw one excellent start in St Lucie, then was sent back to Savannah, which seems puzzling.  My guess is they want him pitching in Gnats playoff games (what they did with Matz there).  I think he moves fast starting next year, ETA of mid-2017 as a starter (if needed), pen arm, or trade bait.

Logan Taylor had a Fulmer-like stretch of injuries, but the 23 year old in St Lucie has had only one bad start in his last 10 games and is pitching healthy in 2015, so he is clearly progressing.  I see him as trade bait this time next year, similar to John Gant, and ML ready as a back end starter in 2017.

Two that are further away are Marcos Molina (only if healthy) and Max Wotell, this year's 3rd rounder who is just 18 but has hit the ground running in relief in the GCL: 5.1 IP, 1 H, 10K.

The Mets signed a new starter this week.

Tim Stauffer was signed to bolster the depleted Las Vegas rotation. The 33-year old ex-2003 first rounder (4^th pick overall by San Diego) has pitched for 10 seasons in the majors, going 33-34, 3.94. He hasn’t started since 2011 when he went 9-12, 3.73, in 31 starts, for San Diego.

Welcome.

Travis d’Arnaud http://www.pressconnects.com/story/sports/2015/07/31/task-gets-taller-mets-michael-conforto/30930727/ talked about the difficult transition from the minors to the majors:

"When you've got guys out there who are major-league pitchers who know exactly where the ball is going every time, it's hard to hit when your mind is not on the pitch. There are so many different things that go on, especially in New York City, that can distract you or that can take your thoughts away from a pitch coming at you. For me, the key was to just remember it's baseball and just have the same approach and same routine every day."

Mack – d’Arnaud looks a little rusty out there right now, but I’m sure he’s going to come around by mid-August and add to the strength of the middle lineup.

The Mets next ten series:

Miami, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Colorado, Philly, Boston, Philly, Miami.

A nice story on recently added St, Lucie knuckleballer Mickey Jannis http://www.astrometsmind.com/2015/07/the-mets-added-indy-league.html