11/25/15

Ernest Dove - Is Mets Prospect Amed Rosario Still Untouchable in Trade?

15 comments

Picture of Rosario on deck in Port St. Lucie
    
  As the slow winter season continues to possibly take shape, I figured why not take this opportunity to write about one of my adored prospects, the now 20 yr old (happy belated bday) shortstop Amed Rosario. Ever since a certain shortstop won the batting title and was let go, the Mets have been desperately needing a long term placement to man the all important position in the infield.  Many have tried, few have succeeded.

  With the Mets rotation in place, all everone wants to talk about this off season is acquiring depth, a bullpen arm, possibly a star player and/or a big time or at least above average shortstop. As fans, many have longed for guys like a certain star who now plays for Toronto instead of that other star who once played for.....well you know.

  There's talk of the Mets looking options regarding Ian Desmond costs, along with the same old trade partner of the Cubs that still has not yet come together. In all, due to the thoughts of certain free agents being too pricey, there's the idea that Mets may prefer to go the trade route to acquire any star type players.  And, what would that cost the Mets?  We already know, leverage making or not, that the Mets publicly do not want to trade ANY of the 5 pitching studs still under team control.  We've also heard some rumblings about the Mets prefering to keep both TDA and Plawecki with the organization as well.   So, with Conforto now being pretty much officially a major league player, what is left for the Mets to offer in trade that has major value there on the open market?  Perhaps its the young Mr. Rosario.

  Over the past year i've read reports that Mets have also publicly stated no way Jose (that's like a slip of the name/term) on the possibly of trading Rosario.  I've also said here on Mack's Mets many times that I consider Conforto, Dom Smith and Conforto to have been untradeable under any/all circumstances over the past year, regardless of what would come back to the team.   So the question remains, what do the Mets (and me) still see in this young man?

  Look at his stats as a professional......Nothing jumps out at you.  He has 5 home runs in 238 minor league baseball games.  I believe Wilmer Flores doubled that by May last year.  He's a career .257 hitter in the minors.  And his OBP is at .302. The only time his OPS went over .700 was in what remains his best statistical season as a baseball player.  In 2014, as an 18 yr old playing way down in Brookly, Rosario hit .289, with a .337 OBP, .380 SLG and .717 OPS while playing 68 games before a late season promotion to join Savannah that year.  But, I always try my best to look more into the numbers when I can, and also take advantage of being about 80 miles from Tradition Field didn't hurt for me either.  So I made a few trips to lovely Port St Lucie.  I'm the guy who went to a game when Conforto, based on the box score, went 0-5. But, in reality, I watched Conforto destroy the ball to DEAD center for a long 400 foot out, along with a SHOT to left center that was tracked down. I also got to enjoy watching Dom Smith CRUSH a ball over the left field fence.........oh yeah it was just left of that stupid foul pole.........And then there was Amed Rosario.

  As I've stated in previous St. Lucie LIVE look in posts in the past year during these games, he has ridiculous range, speed and arm strength out there at SS.  I believe the bio's have him at 6 ft 2.  Not sure what your average shortstop is height wise, but he seems ok over there to me.  As far growing into his body, they list him at 170 and that sounds about right.  Kid definitely sports a baggy jersey if you know what I mean.  And I also do understand that a guy like Dom Smith certainly.....shall we say looks a little different now then he did when he got drafted out of high school.  But, Dom is a first baseman.  Anyone can fill out but Rosario seems to be ok in ability to hold on a little extra weight and definitely stay at the position.  Again, I can only describe in words what it was like to watch him vacuum up balls hit to him, either in the air or ground, on the fly or a chopper, and the ease of the throwing motion right to the target of the guy at first base.  Long story short this is not Wilmer Flores ladies and gentlemen. Im not sure if Rosario will ever come close to having Wilmer power at the plate, but he has the contact ability.  And, although Rosario did not homer in 2015, he did hit 20.....20 doubles in 103 games for St. Lucie. He's also a guy with 15 career triples in his career, and stole 13 bases in 2015. I also saw Rosario and my boy Jeff McNeil create some havoc on the bases, going first to third, second home, etc. with ease.  So, is this what the Mets are truly seeing, beyong the numbers?

  Im no expert.  I'm simply a guy with opinions who uses my non expert eyeball test.  I did randomly proclaim on this site before that what I saw was a teenage Anderlton Simmons at shortstop during those few games I watched Rosario LIVE in St. Lucie, and I'm not backing down from that.  Right or wrong, I see power from Dom Smith, a solid utility guy in Jeff McNeil, and a defensive Whiz in Rosario.  However the main thing I can't speak a bunch on is Rosario hitting.  I've seen him make contact.  I've seen him smack a 2 strike pitch, with a runner on third, past the second baseman to score a run.  However, I did not see any SOLID Conforto type contact during these games.  But it's contact nonetheless. I'll leave the extra analysis and discussions for the the experts.  But I'm still focused on the title of this article.

  Should the Mets hold onto Rosario?  He will play out the entire 2016 season as a 20 year old.  However, he will now most likely be at the AA level, so he's obviously close, regardless of his age.  We can't downgrade a guy and his potential when he already at this level.  And, of course, this continues to be the show me level of the minors.  I'm not sure what excitement Rosario can show while fielding in what I'm told is an awful infield in Vegas and pretty much most fields about there in the desert, so the focus should be on AA Bingo.

  It looks like Rosario remains at the highest of highs as far as projection, talent and possibly tradeability.  And with other guys below him in the minors putting up better stats at the position, along with Checchini having a breakout offensive season above him, what should the Mets do?     
  I personally still put Rosario and Dom Smith over ANY hitting prospect in this organization right now.  No offense to Brandon Nimmo, but the poor guy hasn't stayed healthy.  I also love the stats that a couple of other low minors shortstops put up in 2015, but they are OLDER than Rosario and playing at those lower levels.

  In my heart I believe that Rosario deserves every chance in the world to be the Mets furture shortstop, and if that means signing one year veterans for the next couple of years, or going with guys like Wilmer, Tejada, Checchini, Reynolds and company to hold the fort at close to minimum age while using money for star players at other positions, so be it.

  What say you Macks Mets? 

15 comments:

Mack Ade said...

There was an article a ways back during last season that said no one should be concerned with the stat line being produced by Rosario. They said he was far ahead of the curve due to his lack of age playing in a league full of much older, so-called more developed players.

Frankly if it was me I would "give up" on Matt Reynolds, plays Cecchini in Vegas this upcoming spring, and Rosario in Binghamton.

I happen to see far more potential out of Rosario than Cecchini, but what do I know? I can't even stop confusing him with Dilson Herrera.

Thomas Brennan said...

Rosario will have a rosier Mets future than a lot of other guys not named Smith. Happy Thanksgiving. Make sure you scoop up the mashed potatoes as well as Amed scoops up grounders from the other team's turkeys.

Thomas Brennan said...

If we end up with Herrera and Smith on the right side of the Mets' infield by 2017, it likely will be the shortest such tandem in the bugs.

Ernest Dove said...

I agree Mack

Theres more to life then minor league 'stats' on a player, especially one whose been a teenager his entire professional career up until last week.

I recall horrible numbers by degrom his first time in the PCL even though old Wally kept saying he was a stud.
Like many other people have said on here in the past. We have no idea to a certain extent what 'development' looks like for each player. What they're told to work on day to day game to game etc.
Like pitchers being told to throw strikes, try a new pitch during 'game action' etc.
Maybe hitters told to go opposite field, practice pitch recognition etc......
who knows.....

Mack Ade said...

Correctomundo Ernest.

The minors is a place to develop one's game, both defensively and with the bat. All the scouts have raved about his being able to stand tall with the Big Boys this past season. My money is still on him.

Anonymous said...

Been a long time since I commented here, but I think that the Mets wont make any significant trades this off season, but wait until mid year to fill the needs, so I don't expect Rosario to be on the move any time soon. With Wheeler rehabbing and other question marks, I like the strategy of waiting to the trade deadline to use any trade inventory. Think about last year, everyone wanted Wheeler or Noah, but Fulmer wasn't even on the radar, but a quick shot up with early results yielded Cespedes. Does anybody think that Fulmer would have gotten him last year in spring training? the inventory remains healthy and if guys like Rosario, Cecchinni, Smith, or Becerra step forward next season, they will be plenty to get what is needed for what is anticipated as a stretch run. I also did not want to see Noah get traded before he graduated because success on the ML level increases value substantially. Think about what he would bring back now versus last spring; he would get you just about anything you wanted now, but better to keep him. The Farm is starting to produce at the higher levels and that is when best returns can be had, so sign useful pieces and look to bolster at deadline

Anon Joe F

Metsiac said...

I know I'm a lone voice here supporting Ruben, but I really don't understand the antipathy toward him. He's still just 26, a syeadt fielder (only 5 Es all year), and he led ALL NL SSs with more than 350 PA in OBP, at .330. And he was the toughest Met not named Murphy to strike out.

The competition in ST should be for 2B, between Herrera and Flores (barring a Winter acquisition) while we see how Cecchini and Rosario do this season. I don't see anyone available outside who would be significantly better or worth a multi-year deal.

Ernest Dove said...

I agree with both Joe F and Metsiac

The Mets ridiculous rotation alone should have them in playoff contention at trade deadline, and with so many hitting prospects at higher minors levels next year it may increase their value tremendously. Mets can even Consider DFA of cuddyer at that point to make room for a stud 'rental' Or whatever......

And the cry to dump wilmer and tejada makes no sense when people state alternatives that include players coming off bad years and still wanting $10+mil/yr. No thank you.

If mets could overpay a Zobrist at a 2yr deal im all for it. Same goes for eben an ian desmond. But while shell out millions and years to guys who might barely outproduce those already on the roster at minimum wage?

I want mets thinking WIN NOW but we're not the Yankees. We're not signing guys into their late 30s early 40s to outbid everyone else.

greg b said...

Stick with Tejada till mid season and see if Cecchini or Reynolds are ready to take over.

Mack Ade said...

Anonymous -

As I have written, I agree about the mid-season moves. It worked once, it could work again.

The Mets have a big loan payment due and they are at least one year away from being out from under their debt problems. It might be the fiscal way to go.

bob gregory said...

Big loan problems?
Debt problems?

As a fan, why do I care??

Why should I care?

The owners do not care about fan loan payments and debt problems.

Metsiac said...

Maybe you should care because money not available can't be spent.

bob gregory said...

Sounds like Wilpons problem.

Sorry to be blunt.

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

You? Blunt?

Nah... :)

Happy Thanksgiving.

bob gregory said...

Happy Thanksgiving Mack.

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