11/22/15

Future Positional Analysis – Third Base

16 comments


We move on to a position that has been owned by one player for many years… third base.

There was a while this season that we thought we had lost David Wright, but it looks like we were wrong. Spinal stenosis almost got the best of him, but he came back to hit .289 in 152 at-bats. Where we go from here is a matter of debate, but I see the immediate projectable increase in operating expenses (salaries) for players giving the Mets the opportunity to limit Wright’s amount of games and extend his career through the rest of his contract (2012).

Organization wise, there’s not much to project as Wright’s replacement someday.

Eudor Garcia (Sav - .293 – 6th in league batting average) looks like the best there is in the system and has a conservative ETA of 2019. Garcia is an excellent defensive player as well as having some pop in his bat (23-doubles, 9-HR, 783-OPS).

Past that would be T.J. Rivera (AAA - .306, AA - .341), who is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. All this guy does is hit and yet no one considers him at any of the four positions he plays well. I have him settling in at the AAA level alongside Josh Rodriquez (30 yr. old – AA: .282, 19-HR).

Binghamton may get crowded. Jeff McNeil (A+ - .312), Jhoan Urena (A+ - .214), and Phillip Evans (A+ - .234) are all scheduled to play there in 2016 which probably means at least one of these guys need to go away. My guess is McNeil will be given the opportunity to be the starter here because he also projects out as a possible long range major league player. He's also getting a bunch of work this off-season at SS which is interesting.

Eudor looks to be spelled in St. Lucie by Jean Rodriguez (Sav - .254)

My guess at this point that the ex-4th round pick in 2015, David Thompson (Brklyn - .218) will get a chance to turn around a bad season and start in Columbia.
No one on the rookie level looks projectable at this point in their growth.

Conclusion – I think everything will be okay here in 2016 if the Mets can fine an adequate fill-in for around forty games a year. I’m still a big fan of Wright, but I just don’t like great players getting older. At some point the Mets are going to have to stop honoring him with either the second or third slot in the lineup.


Rating – B  

16 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

Maybe TJ from the Bronx sneaks into the picture as Wright's back up.

I still think Reynolds might be that guy, even if primarily a SS/2B.

Of course, who knows if Murph is retained, as the most qualified swing man on the infield. They may need a certified MLB guy since Wright could start 130 games....or 30.

I'd make Irena less of a future long shot. Think he'll bounce back nicely this year.

Thomas Brennan said...

Urena, of course, is Urena.

Ernest Dove said...

Well......as the jeff McNeil lover of macks mets..............I STILL say he's a legit major leaguer as a utility guy with nice speed.

Anonymous said...

Don't sleep on Ahmed Rosario as a potential third baseman........he is a solid defender at short, but he may be blocked in the future (by another aquisition or one of the many SS prospects in the pipeline). Not to mention he is a big kid and may outgrow SS as he fills out (like A-Rod).

Most youth and developmental league teams put their best athletes at SS.....one of the reasons we draft so many SS's......I think Ahmed could be DW's replacement in three or four years.

Mike

Mack Ade said...

Let's face it, no one on the current 40-man in qualified to step up and replace Wright at any level. Utility infielders are usually signed for two reasons...

one, they can play both the middle infield slots

two, they can play 1B and 3B

The possible DFAing of Tejada leaves us right now for the needs of TWO UT infielders... if... the plan is Wright, Flores, Rosario, and Duda across the infield.

We have to be patient through this off season process

Hobie said...

3B/1B insurance = Daniel Murphy.

And vice-versa

Mack Ade said...

Hobie -

Looking back, I totally agree.

Thomas Brennan said...

Mack, you meant Herrera, not Rosario, correct?

Thomas Brennan said...

Mack, you meant Herrera, not Rosario, correct?

Adam Smith said...

Looking at what's available, at what cost, and the uncertainty of DW's health, and Herrera's development and Duda's inconsistency, I can't see a better option than re-signing Murph. Insurance at three IF spots, and a professional bat that has proven it plays in NY. Unless, I guess, you bring in a high-end SS and make Flores that guy. But with Cecchini - who I think they believe in - in the wings and Rosario behind him, I have trouble seeing this FO committing big money for multiple years for a SS.

Thomas Brennan said...

Adam, if Murph signs elsewhere, how would we like facing him in the playoffs? I would not.

Thomas Brennan said...

Adam, if Murph signs elsewhere, how would we like facing him in the playoffs? I would not.

Herb G said...

Murph would be a good backup plan for DW as well as the starting 2B. But I don't think he's coming back. I think our best move now is to move Wright to 1B, and trade for Todd Frazier. (Zack & a prospect or 2?) Then, trade Duda to Tampa for Jake McGee.

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

Re: Rosario/ Herrera

Right - muy bado

bob gregory said...

Wright moving to 1st base?
I don't know.

Is playing 1st base sifnificantly less stressful on a back in Wright's situation.

Remember, Mattingly played 1st with the benefit of his team having a DH spot. How long was he able to play with the back problem?
How often was he out of the lineup?
How often DHing?

I'm afraid Wright's back is what it is. It will go at some point. It could be Spring training or 2 yrs or 5 yrs from now, but eventually it will be too much for Wright to contribute with no matter where he plays on the field.

Thomas Brennan said...

Herb, like the Frazier and McGee ideas. Bob G, that is the risk with Wright for sure.

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