The Morning Report 11.18.2015 | Collins Finishes 3rd in Manager of the Year Voting, Fielding Aging Curves, Mets Minor League Free Agents


Kevin Kernan New York Post- Terry Collins won on the field, not in the ballot box. Collins finished a distant third in the NL Manager of the Year contest Tuesday to the Cubs’ Joe Maddon. The Cardinals’ Mike Matheny, whose team won 100 games, finished second. “I have all the respect in the world for Joe Maddon, I hired him with the Angels,’’ Collins told The Post.“He’s a great baseball man. And what can you say about the job Mike Matheny has done? Four years, four postseasons. For me, it’s never been about me, it’s always been about my players and my team, and I couldn’t be prouder of what we accomplished.”

(Chris Soto: Hey nothing to be ashamed of here. Collins did an incredible job holding this team afloat until reinforcements arrived in late July. Just like Syndergaard, in a normal year Collins may have won the award, however, Joe Maddon did him one better by taking his young team as far as they did. In addition, I think Matheny actually did a better job considering he dealt with just as many injuries as the Mets did and still cranked out 100 wins.)

Tom Tango | The Hardball Times- Analyzing baseball performance data is all about understanding the context. We can generalize the impact of the batter. As it happens, we can also generalize the impact of the fielder. Today, I look at the data from the angle of the shortstop’s age. Based on this study, the defensive peak for a shortstop is between...ages 24 to 28, and then the drop is only five plays per year. 

(Chris Soto: Interesting read here for anyone interesting in how aging should statistically affect a player. It's important to look at this when comparing the case of whether the Mets should be signing Ben Zobrist for 2B or just let Dilson Herrera take over the position. Based on the study, Zobrist shoul be continuing on a downswing of defensive prowess while Herrera should only get better as he has not yet reached his physical peak.)

Matt Eddy Baseball America
(This list came out a few days ago, I just haven't gotten to it. Here is a list of all the minor league players who have declared free agency and have left the Mets organization.)

RHP: Martires Arias (Lo A), Vic Black (AAA), John Church (AAA), Jake Kuebler (Hi A), Cody Satterwhite (AAA), Jon Velasquez (AA), Edioglis Villasmil (SS)

LHP: Darin Gorski (AAA), Scott Rice (AAA), Alex Torres (AAA)

C: Albert Cordero (AA), Anthony Recker (AAA), Dan Rohlfing (AAA)

1B: Brandon Allen (AAA), Vince Belnome (AA), Zach Lutz (AAA), Brock Peterson (AA)

2B: Brooks Conrad (AAA)

3B: Jonathan Galvez (AA), Josh Rodriguez (AA)

SS: Wilfredo Tovar (AAA)

OF: Joe Benson (AA), Gilbert Gomez (AA)

HOT STOVE REPORT (courtesy of mlbtraderumor.com)
  • Multiple reports came out yesterday indicating that due to Jose Fernandez's unwillingness to sign a contract extension with the Miami Marlins, the team is willing to hear offers for the right handed starting pitcher.
  • In addition, reports have surfaced that the Braves are now looking to trade Freddie Freeman, Cameron Maybin, and "pretty much everyone" who is owed guaranteed money beyond this year. GM John Coppolella adamantly denies that they have made Freeman available on the trade block.

(Chris Soto: Boy, two huge developments in the NL East. First off, the Marlins are doing what the Mets will likely have to do in 1 maybe 2 more years. Scott Boras knows that his young SP clients have the potential to make hundreds of millions of dollars and they themselves know it too. Both Harvey and Fernandez will let themselves get to free agency and cash in. As for the Braves.....I just don't know what the heck the team strategy is anymore. The club has a number of high upside arms already in the organization but nothing in terms of hitting prospects so it is surprising to hear that they are possibly, or not possibly, interested trading their best hitter since Chipper Jones.)


Ernest Dove said...

And I continue to say I absolutely LOVE what the Braves are doing. ....
Im still looking for Braves to be aweful for the next 3 seasons, which is same window Mets have complete control of best rotation in baseball.

Thomas Brennan said...

I am sorry to see Martires Arias go free agent. He certainly was not rushed up the chain in his past 2 excellent years, so I cannot blame him. I assume he will sign with a weaker pitching major league team.

Kevin S said...

Slow start to the offseason. Here are my thoughts from the drive in to work today...

The only long term investment on this team right now is David Wright. The best thing for the player and the investment would be moving him to 1B to try and protect his back from further harm. He's limited to sidearm at this point which makes him a liability on balls down the line.

Looking at Duda's stat line for the season looks like he had a pretty good year. The eye test tells you he did almost all of that damage in 3 spurts while looking completely lost the rest of the season. I like Duda but I'd like more consistency.

So here's my crazy idea...

Mets trade SP Zach Wheeler to the Reds for 3B Frazier and 2B Phillips. Depending on how much of Phillips contract we take back (2/$27M I believe) would depend on additional pieces going to Cincy. But this is the bones of the deal. Both Wheeler and Phillips are under contract for 2 more seasons so no long term investment. Phillips is still a + defender and having hit 7th in the lineup might let him relax instead of hitting cleanup for Cincy. Frazier had a nice first half but stumbled in the 2nd half. He's still young so I think he'll be fine.

I'd love to find a way to bring in Heyward to play CF for 2 years before becoming a staple in RF but that would require a very long term deal, which I don't think this team wants to commit to. Instead I'm working on a deal to bring in Charlie Blackmon from Colorado. He's entering Arb1 this year so he's under control for the next 3 years at below market rates. He actually handles the bat well vs LHP (something Heyward doesn't) although he has significant home/road splits so there is some risk there. Duda is my trade chip to get Blackmon. Whether he gets dealt to Colorado or maybe Houston is brought in as a 3rd party with Houston taking Duda to round out a very righty heavy lineup and sending young SP to Colorado.

That's my concept in a nut shell. Mets bring in Blackmon, Frazier and Phillips. All three are under control for the next 2/3 years but no longer term $ invested. Mets lose Wheeler which stings but he's expendable in my opinion.

Mack Ade said...

I still wish and hope that Dilson Herrera starts the season as the starting second baseman. He has succeeded at every minor league level which is what you ask from a player. It's the only way we can learn if his minor league pop can translate into the majors.

As for his defense, it's better than Murphy's was.

Zozo said...

I believe Wheeler has 4 more years left, I think he is arbitration eligible starting next year. I also think they would have to trade them more than wheeler to get Frazier even if you take all the contract owed to Phillips. But good trade partner for them to look at.

Also Wright moving to first would be blocking our young stud first basemen Smith. I would try and move him to 2nd base if we got Frazier, but I don't believe the takeout slides would help his back much?

Hobie said...

The conversation about Zobrist (and I'll throw Murphy into the mix) is not about 2B; it's about 3B and possibly 1B. In fact, if I could trade Duda for quality RP, I'd like to see both sharing 324 games sharing 3B/1B and DH with Wright for 120G apiec--more if Zo plays a little in the MINF.

Sign Cespedes & sell high on Granderson. 2015 was a pleasant surprise (re CG), make hay with that. Conforto-Legares/Nimmo-Cespedes is your OF/

I agree with Mack that 2B is Dilson's to lose and I bet he won't. And I'll hang on to the Fab 5.

bob gregory said...

The Mets should not be considering themselves in a position to hold 1st base or another position for anybody that is 2+ years away.

Smith may turn out to be great, but the Mets are in win now mode with a starting pitching staff that is under control for 3+ more years.

Holding a position and sacrificing 2 years wastes prime opportunity granted by the pitching.

Let Smith fight his way onto the major league team and force someone off of 1st base. One or the other can always be valuable as a trade asset.

Regarding Wright:
I would not be too concerned about his contract as a long term. Given what has been reported about his back, it seems very unlikely that he will be able to fulfill all of the years as an active player. Whether it is 1,2, or 3+ years from now, it is very likely that Wright will have to retire and receive his money by insurance pay out.

I have to agree on your belief in signing Cespedes and selling high on Granderson. I would add to that a priority to find a high on base percentage lead off hitter.

Mack Ade said...

Hobie -

You have to build these teams from within.

None of us at this time last year thought that Conforto was ready to play major league ball. Now, we have given him left field for the next six or seven years.

Rosario is supposed to be the next Mets second baseman and this process needs to be completed. This has nothing to do with any concerns at any of the other positions, nor should if affect who plays at those positions.

Kevin S said...

I don't see any reason to hand over the 2B job to a 21-year old Herrera. I also don't want to block his path with a long term contract. We also have a handful of future 2B in Flores, Herrera or one of the many SS we have throughout the systems.

I stand by my idea of bringing in a vet like Phillips to play 2B this season. Herrera, at age 21, could stay in Vegas. If Phillips falters or gets hurt, then we have a nice insurance policy.

Taking the $ owed to Phillips in a deal for Frazier could help make the match better. If Cincy wants a bigger return then just Wheeler, we have other supplemental pieces to include but they aren't getting Wheeler and a top 5 prospect.

I agree with Bob that I'm not worried at all about blocking Dom Smith. Until he rakes in AA/AAA, I'm not considering him as my 1B of the future. Who knows what will happen with Wright over the next 5 years but moving to 1B makes more sense to me than having him struggle at 3B going further.

Anonymous said...

Ok Fella's I'm going a different direction
Sign Desmond high annual low term
Also sign Parra for CF,Blevins for the pen
With Desmond at short and Herrera at 2nd Duda at 1 wright at 3
It will allow the Mets to use Flores as a Zobrist type player
But not in the 16plus million annual salary range
Flores can play 40 games at 3rd, 40 against RHP at 1st
20 and 2bag and 20 at SS. He will be available to pinch hit the other games


Thomas Brennan said...

Anon/Steve, not bad thinking

bob gregory said...

There are many ways that can accomplish the same goal in producing a productive and reliable offense.

It needs to be kept in mind though that:

1) Wright and D'Arnaud are fragile- this detracts from the reliability

2) Flores & Lagares have both demonstrated some positives but have not been consistent enough to be thought of as reliable and their productivity has limitations

3) Duda's productivity has been a positive as a whole, but completely unreliable where he can seem like the best hitter in all of baseball at one moment and then later seem like he has never swung a baseball bat before.

4) Granderson has been highly productive this past season, but his age has to bring doubt on how reliable he will continue to be.

5) Herrera has done very well in the minors, but then again so did Campbell and many others. His previous opportunities in the majors did not prove to be productive.

6) Conforto did prove his productivity and signs seem to point that atleast the same level can be achieved reliably moving forward.

7) Cuddyer.... not productive or reliable.

That is it gentlemen. A lineup can handle a couple players whose productivity might be below average or who might be unreliable.
It can not achieve any degree of long term success however with 7 position players that are unreliable and/or below avg.

The big question in my mind is how to make at least 5 of the lineup spots reliably productive at a major league average level or better going into the season.

Between D'Arnaud and Plawecki I feel reasonably safe one of those spots are spoken for.
Conforto Fills another.

That leaves 3 more to fill. Third base will not be one of them unless Flores is seen as able to take over for Wright during absences.

Mack Ade said...

Kevin -

For the record, Herrera is not a shortstop and there is no room (Mazzilli, Muno) for him in AAA.

Mack Ade said...

Mike Puma ‏@NYPost_Mets

According to @Ken_Rosenthal the asking price for Darren O'Day is $28M to $36M over 4 years. Was told the Mets most likely won't go there.

Kevin S said...


I wasn't calling Herrera a shortstop, simply saying that we have a SS prospect at every level. They all can't stay there. Someone will have to move to 2B or 3B.

I'm not even going to touch the comment about Mazzilli and Muno blocking Herrera from repeating AAA.

Mack's Mets © 2012