Mack’s Morning News – 11-29-15 – Xander Bogaerts, Brett Lawrie, Asdrubel Cabrera, Neil Walker, Michael Choice


Good morning.

Gary Seagren sent –
Good Morning Mack, Hope you had a great Thanksgiving and here's my thought on a trade idea. Harvey, Niese, Flores and Duda for Bogaerts, Bradley and Holt. I would resign Murph for 1st until Dom Smith is ready hopefully by mid/late 2017. That would give us a super sub in Holt and a platoon in CF until one really takes charge of the position. Bogaerts gives us a long term SS and all are cost controlled. WE KNOW Harvey is not going to sign with us so were left with do we trade him now or can we recoup more next off season. The problem with that that I see is he pitched the most innings of any pitcher coming off TJS and there is a risk that he'll regress some next year. Your thought's, Gary Seagren

Mack – You’re asking me if I would be interested in a 22-year old shortstop that hit .320 and knocked in 81 runs?

And, I’ve always liked the potential of Bradley which seems to have emerged this past season.

Gary, you know how much I love pitching and I really would like to see the Mets solve their future positional problems by not losing one of their top starters, but having an all-star like this play every day for a long, long time would such clear up a few things.

Yes, this would make a lot of sense if you also could sign Murphy to play first. I don’t worry about the future on Smith, but that’s two years away.

Harvey would be a huge loss, but Duda, Flores, and Niese are expendable. You will have lost two rotation pitchers here so you are really betting on Logan Verrett, Rafael Montero, and the return of Zach Wheeler.

I will say this… I think you could have either got more or given up less in this deal because of Harvey. My guess he is worth three front line players.

Any thoughts by the rest of you out there?

While we’re on the subject of possible trades,  Rich MacCleod wrote an interesting article on the possibility if Oakland’s IF Brett Lawrie becoming a Met.

Read the article. His five year career has been a disappointment so far and his career stat line, particularly his OPS, needs a bump, but he would serve up as a utility 2B/3B, especially if the Mets chose to go with Dilson Herrera at second base. 

And, he’s only 26.

Michael Baron writes that the Mets are one of the five teams interested in signing 30-year old SS Asdrubal Cabrera, whi is older than Wilmer Flores, hits around the same as Flores, and plays worse defense than Flore (BTW… as I write this, Flores is playing second base in winter ball). I don’t see this being much of an upgrade but I’d love to hear your thoughts on it.

The MLB Radio Network brought up a Neil Walker for Jon Niese possible trade. Walker is the Pirates 29-year old second baseman that could be a good bridge to Dilson Herrera in 2017. He also can play third base. Are you interesting in a one year solution for the middle infield mess?

And lastly…

          This is just me thinking out loud.

Throw the book and past stats out on OF Michael Choice, who was DFA’d this past week. Choice was one of the prime cut outfielders that came out of the 2010 draft (10th pick overall… second OF picked after Bryce Harper and two picks after Matt Harvey). He simply was in the ‘can’t miss’ category.

He did hit 30-HRs for A+ Stockton in 2011; however, his career has basically been off the rails since then. Three shots in the majors produced 272-AB and a combined .188 batting average. And last year, he spent most of his time playing in the PCL for Round Rock (normal air there), hitting 12-HRs (406-AB) and hitting .244.

Still, he’s 25 years old and he has to be a better option for some of the guys we have on the current Las Vegas roster.


Thomas Brennan said...

Very interesting proposed trade for Bogaerts there. I think we give up too much (or don't get enuf), though. Why? Every player is part performance and part charisma. Harvey is near the tops in the majors in both. Great box office. That makes him worth more, and a guy like Duda less due to lack of charisma. Harvey is like watching the new Rocky movie, Duda like watching a dull flick you've already seen.

Plus, I will remind everone that over about 450 career innings, Verrett allowed an astonishing homer every 9 innings. Unless he really fixed something, that could become one every 6 innings in the bigs. Which does not work.

Ernest Dove said...

Cabrera makes NO sense based off everything said about him.
Where wilmer plays in winter league also means nothing as I heard you guys say a few times that mlb technically has no say once they agree to let guys participate as to the game decisions.

And if Michael choice wants a minor league invite to st lucie im ok with it.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

all I am saying that, if you truly are going to trade the Comeback Pitcher of the Year at this point in his arbitration period, get more than this trade calls for.

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

I was just poining out where Flores is playing this winter as an FYI

Zozo said...

Who do you guys think has the higher trade value right now Harvey or Jose Fernandez? It just seems that all the MLB network guys say Fernandez can get so much more when they brought up his trade scenario as opposed to Harvey's? They never compared the 2 but I just felt they were saying it that way.

I feel Harvey has the higher trade value because he has pitched more after surgery? What do yo guys think?

Robb said...

I dont think thats a particularly good trade for either side as it doesnt solve anyones issues or is too much to give up. Also, boegarts might be really good, but I think we are all undervaluing harvey. the rest of it is all whatever. teams dont really take other teams throw ins.

Fernandez has more value but isnt a better player. Youth plus results is always worth more then the same results at a higher age, plus i think Fernadez is super 2. So he has 1 more year of control albeit at full market value. He is also worth more to the Marlins with his marketability then Harvey is to the Mets bc the Mets have other guys they could market, a cuban refugee in miami winning a cy young is pretty great for them, like fernado in LA. Remember there are business decisions too in these evaluations.

Mack Ade said...

Zozo -

I think it's a moot point.

BOTH Fernandez and Harvey have huge value in a trade and, IMO, would generate three top players in return

Zozo said...

but you can say the same thing about marketability towards the Dark Knight? I feel they should at least be even, but Harvey a tad bit more because he has more innings under his belt after surgery.

Zozo said...

How about a trade of Harvey, Nimmo, Cecchini, Cuddyer, and Niese for Hanley, Betts and Xander?
I would then put Hanley at first and trade Duda for some sort of package. Hanley can also play 3rd when Wright needs a day off? I would absorb that contract if they give us 2 cheap starters.

metsiac said...

I don't see the need for major moves at all. This team beat the Dodgers with Greinkeshaw, swept the Cubs, and were close in the WS in every game but one. With virtually ZERO from Cespedes and Murphy, we had the lead late in 3 of the 4 losses.

The difference in the Series was in the pens; theirs held, ours didn't.I'm sticking with my pick of Robles as a sleeper future set=up RP, and I see the need for a LOOGY, at least until Edgin returns. But we need more. Reed looked good last year, and so did Bart. Clip was fine early on, then bombed. I'd like to add a veteran 8th inning guy.

In terms of position players, I'd like to get a CFer who can hit RHPs, though I'm not yet convinced that last year's Lagares is the "real" one. I'd like to re-sign Uribe, and if we don't get someone better I'd be happy with Johnson as utilityman. If Ruben is healthy, he's our best SS, and Cecchini may be ready for Prime Time.

We've got a lineup in which everyone but Ruben is capable of double-digit HRs, and it wouldn't surprise me if all but Ruben and Lag hit 20+ (if David and Travis stay healthy).

We need some fine-tuning, but not too much more.

Gary Seagren said...

Zo I would love to get both Betts and Xander but don't see any way they trade both

Rene Riquelme said...

I would do a Harvey,Cuddyer and Niese for Betts.Bogaerts and Holt.

Mack Ade said...

Zozo -

You honestly want to take on Hanley's remaining deal?

bob gregory said...

Serious reason to be concerned if Ken Rosenthal 's report, the the Mets #1 target of the off season is Zobrist.

This reeks of Cuddyer all over again.
If similar to last year....
Mets enter the season with.

Catcher: D'Arnaud's productivity but constant injury concerns

1st Base: Duda's low avg and high strikeout Raye

2nd Base: Zobrist good productivity

SS: Flores/Tejada good productivity for the position

3rd Base: lowered productivity by Wright, with a high strikeout rate and serious injury concerns.

CF: Lagares low avg. And productivity

LF: hopefully, high productivity in Conforto. Low strikeout rate.

RF: Granderson good productivity for leadoff but questions due to age

This offense is full of 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th place hitters for an avg offensive team.

There are no 3rd or 4th place reliably productive hitters for even an avg offense
D'Arnaud and Wright's injuries make them not reasonably reliable for anything more than short term.
Conforto's youth makes him unable to be relied upon as entering the season as the relied upon 3rd or 4th place hitters.

Overall this offense has too low an avg, too high on strikeouts, and too many age and/or injury concerns of key offensive players. Much too much risk for a 162 game season.

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

I truly believe it'a atill very early in the team building process.

I do agree with you that a Zobrist signing would mirror the Cuddyer one.

Zozo said...

I couldn't agree with you more, we need a 3 and a 4 hitter

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