Good
morning.
Greg B said –
Mack -
I put this as a comment in your
Saturday post, but deleted it because it was late in the day and I wanted to
see your thoughts...
Regarding Herrera, 2b, &
Future leadoff hitter:
I think speed is not what should
be the most important factor in being a lead off hitter.
More important to me is how a
player hits with no one on base ahead of them. Are they able to be the spark
that starts things moving?
Can they run the bases well? Are
they a contact hitter able to avoid the strikeout?
To me these things are more
important as a leadoff hitter.
Can Herrera do these things? Does
he have these skills and mindset?
If so.....GREAT!
If not..... Granderson ' s
replacement plan becomes all the more difficult.
The next leadoff hitter is not
coming from the C, 3b, LF positions.
1b would mean not only moving on
from Duda, but also taking an entirely different approach to 1b that is
traditionally more of a rbi/power position. I guess it could be done, but I'm
not even sure where you would find a first baseman with the appropriate leadoff
skills and mindset.
CF seems unlikely if Lagares is
in center or Cespedes.
That leaves SS, 2b and RF (When
Granderson leaves)
If the replacement is a rf...
again, similar to 1st base, it seems a different approach than most
rightfielders.....but more possible than 1st base. It would require having to
wait until Granderson is gone though, so there is less opportunity to pretest
their performance in fill in situations.
So...that leaves 2b and SS.
If Herrera or Flores or Murphy
are determined to be the team's 2nd baseman, then that leaves only SS.
I caution an eye toward a total
team construction is needed. The 2b and SS positions should not be filled based
solely on who hits or fields better.
More importantly, a leadoff
hitting replacement should be found at one of these positions first.
The other position is dependent
upon this decision and can be filled afterwards.
Mack – Greg, thanks for the question.
As you know, I had Dilson
Herrera as my number one Mets prospect…
a year ago. That’s how high I am on him.
As for whether or
not he’s a potential major league lead-off hitter, let me answer it this way… I
don’t know and I never will know until he gets to play an entire season as a
starter in the majors. Don’t give him 50 at-bats and expect a miracle here.
Make him your starting second baseman and begin him as either the seventh or
eighth hitter. Hell, even David Wright started
as a seventh hitter.
I think he could
potentially be the Mets 2017 leadoff hitter bases on the criteria you outlined.
He’s no Jose Reyes,
but neither is anyone else in the organization.
You could sign Denard
Span but
he probably is only going to be looking for a one year deal so he can build
back his stat line after being injured for much of the past season with a bad
back.
Greg, I don’t know
how to answer your question for the 2017 season. You know I’m a big fan of
improving the infield defense and I think that, and an additional quality
middle reliever, are the next targets for this team. I’m a big fan of Starlin
Castro. But it looks like the Mets
are going after Ian Desmond this
off-season. Sure, he had a sup-par BA this past season (.233), but he did hit
88 home runs in the past four seasons and he’s the best shortstop available out
there.
Joseph
J. Ruffino asked -
I am disturbed by the likes of
you and other supposed baseball experts
having so little understanding of players and potentials, achievement etc. Kirk is an individual you will claim to have
had amble opportunity to prove
himself. Yes and no! He plays good number of games or at bats, the
hit a down spell. Don’t play him sit him on the bench and then use him in
unimportant pinch hitting situation with no results, or call him back because
the other team brings in a lefty, so he does not get the plate experience and
you lose him as a defensive replacement.
I would not call these events good opportunity to evaluate a player.
Collins, in my opinion is not the type of person that will help to develop a
players confidence in his ability. In a fairly brief period of time this season
Kirk was hitting over 300, with games including 3 hrs. and , 4 for 4, and 2
doubles Of course there was that pinch
hit homer to beat Washington then for one reason or other , not the lost time
do a back or neck problem rarely used again
In 2012 Kirk started very good then set and lost time too an injury and never resumed as he had started.
2013/14 where years he had some good spots but never achieve overall
consistency at the plate primarily because of Collins handling of him fielding
always sparkled in all 3 outfield positions. In 2016 Conforto should be an
everyday player, so should Granderson as long as he plays well with occasion
rest days. Center can be split between
Kirk and Legaras The Mets should be
concentrating on Short and 3rd in case Wright goes down again. Flores is really a 2nd baseman. If Murphy says by by who plays 3rd if Wright
can’t?
Joe Ruffino
PS I believe I am a little older
than you, having Pee Wee Reese and Pete Reiser living
across the street from me in 41 and popping beers with Duke
Snider in the early 50’s in my old Bay Ridge Brooklyn neighborhood.
Mack – First of all, thank you for your question.
Secondly, you honor
me by saying I am a ‘so-called baseball expert’. I’m just a Mets fan that
decided to start a Mets blog about the minor league teams.
As for Kirk
Nieuwenhuis, I understand your
frustration. I’ve seen so many minor league baseball players that were never
given what I always said were ‘a fair shot… at least 300 at-bats in one season’.
I try to remind
people that there are ‘billions of people on this planet but there are only 30
first basemen’. The odds of getting yourself a fulltime job in major baseball
is slim and, frankly, I think Captain Kirk may have seen his time past, both in
the major leagues and as a Met.
I too believe that
the inner infield and additional relievers should be top priority and, because
of that, Nieuwenhuis may actually get a shot to platoon with Juan
Lagares. Will it happen is still a
question mark at this point. If I was a betting man, and Lagares returns to
being at 100%, I think he will first get a shot at playing full time with Michael
Conforto and Curtis
Granderson, while Nieuwenhuis’s future on
the Mets would only be as a utility outfielder and pinch hitter.
I also share your
concern on who would replace an injured David Wright if
Daniel
Murphy departs. Wilmer
Flores has played third, but it isn’t
a perfect solution. You got me on this one too.
Lastly, it’s nice
to talk to someone that’s older than I am. There’s less of that going around
every year. Having a beer with the Duke must have been the hoot. My brother
would give an arm to have done that.
9 comments:
To your Kirk questioner, his problem has been (in my opinion, which has been equated in worth to a hill of beans), and still is, the strikeout.
He is a big, strong dude, and could be another Chris Davis, but has never showed that kind of home run propensity for whatever reason. Time is running short for him to show he is worthy of an OF platoon, although frankly, his #s against righty pitching are not all that bad. Of course, Brandon Nimmo helps out in that regard by playing poorly when he is supposed to be an heir apparent in the OF. Billy Beane once thought he was an heir apparent.
Matt den Dekker figured out how to decrease the Ks - if Kirk also can cut them by say 20%, he could be worth keeping and a valuable 4th OF.
I too love Dilson Herrera. I hope the little guy becomes a big star. whether he becomes a consummate lead off hitter, only time will tell, as he will be only 22 in 2016.
I was drawing up my wish list and was soon coming bup with Denard Span, Jerry Blevins and maybe Ian Desmond. What are we, the Washington Nationals?
Desmond - bad, bad idea
Id rather have Wilmer at SS then Desmond
Michael S./Ernest -
I can't argue with you about Desmond vs. Flores.
I agree that Flores actually has posted better defensive stats than Desmond, but I just wanted to point out:
1. him home runs over four years
2. many 'in the know' feel the Mets are looking for an upgrade at this position
3.Desmond is the best available unless you trade for someone
I'd rather just wait for Cheech than take 'the best FA'. I would've wanted Desmond a couple of years ago but he adds to the deficiencies we're trying to overcome.
If the Mets want to upgrade, they're a win-now team and have to investigate the trade market.
How about Hechavarria from the Marlins?
If the Mets are going to let Murphy go, I'd make a move the other way and call Cleveland about Kipnis. He's a solid defender, leadoff, LH, and pushes Grandy down the lineup. I'd rather go for an established 2B than just hand the job over to Herrera, talented as he may be. This team's window just opened and they're no longer in a position to hope it doesn't take Dilson 2 years to 'get it' at the MLB level.
There just aren't many real upgrades at SS available. There isn't much talent around baseball to begin with and the ones who would be an upgrade are stars who would never be dealt. I'd go with Flores until Cecchini is ready for the call. If Gavin can't hack it they can always fall back on Wilmer.
Niewenhuiss has slow bat and odd swing mechanics, will continue to hit poorly unless there's significant overhaul. All the playing time in the world isn't going to change his results as long as that faulty foundation continues.
He's a good defensive outfielder but also out of minor league options which leaves no 25-man roster spot for him. Not when the Mets have to carry Cuddyer and are looking to sign the likes of Fowler, Span, etc.
Regarding shortstop, the Flores-Tejada combo was last in the majors in DRS, Flores has no wheels, is a base running liability, and Tejada, at best, has average footspeed. Instead of having footspeed at shortstop for stolen base and other scoring advantages, Mets have base running negatives.
Mets need athletic upgrade either from trade or short term free agent deal - or call up Matt Reynolds as platoon stop gap until Cecchini ready, trade one of Flores or Tejada. I would go with Tejada & Reynolds, trade Flores or get someone from the outside. I choose speed, stolen base threat and contact - OBP - over flores's power that's left field only.
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