Good morning.
Hope you had a nice New
Year’s Day. It may be the best day you have this year.
There doesn’t seem to
be anything on the horizon before pitchers and catchers report next month.
Oh, I’m sure Sandy
might find another Matt Purke or Drew Gagnon to add to the already bloated AAA bullpen
projection, but I don’t see any major purchase at any position until the market
comes back to the Mets limited budget left in the Hot Stove.
Remember now, the
Wilpons have spent a lot of money this year. They bought the AAA-Syracuse team.
They invested in Belmont Park for the New York Islanders. And they bought some
video game company (NYC team for the Overwatch League).
I’m sure their
accountants have told them that they will eventually improve the ‘bottom line’
with these purchases. See, this is the only thing that big business companies
care about… not WAR… but P and L.
So, it’s time for me to
start to try and get out of this Mets funk I’m in. This looks like the team
that the Wilpons will deal us and I need to get back to that ‘if’ mood I’m
always in around this time of the year.
Ya know, remember those
yearly posts I would write with the title “If”?
I would outline all the
reasons the Mets were going to win the World Series… ‘if someone hit 30+ home
runs’ or ‘if someone won 12+ games as a starter’.
It was very easy to
write this kind of column last pre-season. The Mets had potentially one of the
top three rotations in the business and enough bats to compete for the most
home runs in the game. Of course, like all my other ‘if columns, health was the
most important factor to make things fall into place. Once that began to
crumble, so did our team.
In my opinion, there
are only three factors that need to fall into place for this current team to
excel. They are the same I’ve been barking about for years.
1. We need our health. And, we need it
at all positions. The talent base has little depth so our starters have to stay
out on the field.
2. We have the rotation. Healthy, they
could be one of the best in the National League. Hopefully, our new manager and
pitching coach will juggle the innings with the relievers and drastically lower
the runs per game given up. Give up less runs means you win more games.
3. We need to stress middle field
defense. Right now, we don’t have the perfect second baseman to do this, but Amed Rosario at short and Juan
Lagares in center can win us games with both their gloves and arms. Wilmer Flores will probably be some degree of
liability at second, but he hopefully can make that up with his bat.
I need to get past the
Wilpons. They suck, but so do most owners.
And, I’m going to try
and stop trashing ‘Sandy and Company’. They aren’t going to change either.
It’s time for me to
return my writing to the positive side of the players we have, both playing
Flushing ball, but especially in the pipeline. THAT’S what put this site on the
map back in 2005 when Toby Hyde (what the hell
ever happened to him?) and I were the only dudes writing about the Mets players
in the minors.
I may not like what’s
going on with the Mets, but that doesn’t mean I don’t love the Mets.
16 comments:
"If" is a mighty big word. It was mighty big this time last year, too.
The defensive model is intriguing, if the pitching is up to its capabilities...IF.
SNOW STORM TODAY...HOT STOVE HELPS. WINTER SUKS.
I couldn't even get the dog to walk outside this morning, no less me.
I will make one prediction...
The success of this team will come out of the pen, either to save the game, or stop the bleeding.
Do you remember when the Mets had to add the likes of Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe because their offense was so awful? Do you remember Eric Campbell hitting cleanup? Do you remember the ABs squandered on the likes of Ruben Tejada, Anthony Recker and Kirk Nieuwenhuis? I have a feeling we will think back on that period as the good old days of scoring runs.
Reese -
You may be right. Runs could be hard to find... but if both Cespedes and Conforto heal 100%, that will be worth 60+ home runs.
Add another potential 20+ from Flores.
Simple formula, as you stated Mack........stay healthy and this team can contend for a WC. Catching the Nats is a different issue that would require them to collapse much like we did last year.
Mike -
Or like the Nats did the year before.
Any team can crumble. Look at BOTH Giants teams, who went from the penthouse to the outhouse with no mass injury excuse. Life is a series of ifs.
But Mack, how can you link "Defense" and "Wilmer" in the same sentence? If his bat is as good as his press agents here believe it is, why don't AL GMs see it and make generous offers for him?
Life is a series of ifs. And collapses or upward surprises happen all the time.
Look at BOTH (NFL and MLB) Giants teams for total collapses without the excuse of multiple key injuries.
Mack---how can you mention "Defense" and Wilmer in the same paragraph? If his Offense is as good as his press agents here say it is, why don't the 15 AL GMs see it and overpay us for him?
I root for him and hope you're right, but I cringe when I see him wearing a glove.
Mack- nice column with tempered optimism. Big IFs but of course, you are so right. So much depends upon the health of the arms, both in the rotation and the pen. I am still holding out hope that the fact that Reed is still available is a sign that he might want a return to the Mets.
Speaking of defense up the middle, would you consider trading Lagares (plus a prospect or two) to Seattle for Dee Gordon, and either playing Conforto in CF or signing a low cost CF with a good glove. (Jon Jay or Austin Jackson) It has been said that Gordon is not ecstatic about being slotted for CF, and his defense there is quite uncertain, a work in progress at best. I know you love Lagares' glove, as we all do, but maybe getting a major upgrade over Flores at 2B would be worth it.
Herb, interesting thinking on Gordon.
Bill/Herb -
Both of you are long term readers here and know I have never been a fan of Flores playing anywhere in the field; however, his bat is critical in the current projected opening day lineup, and his 'best' position is second base.
I too love the Dee idea. He would give ++ defense at 2B and be a ++ lead off hitter as well.
Seattle traded good prospects (I guess, though I don't know them) to get Dee for CF. I doubt that Herb's package would get them to trade him away.
I really wanted Dee, but I don't see a possible deal. Nunez is still a FA, though, and could be a fit. And Jose, both as a 2Bman and mentor for Amed, would suit me as placeholder for Guillorme on a 1-year deal.
Mack,
I'm with you 100%on two points you make-
First, giving the monetary limitations and current roster strengths, focus on defense up the middle and pitching with the remaining moves. It goes without saying that health of the pitchers is paramount, and it also goes without saying that even wit a bigger checkbook, the Nats will field a better offense next year. The Mets need to out pitch and outfield the competition...it has been proven over 100 years that this will keep them in the hunt. Regarding Wilmer, I still like him as a strong bench player and insurance policy. Defensive metrics have him as a plus glove at 1B and slightly minus at 2b. This is where he should see him action and get 400-500 ABs. He is the guy to push Dom Smith, not an outsider. Go get a plus glove to help at 2b and sign another quality bullpen arm and low cost veteran OF. I like Lagares/Nimmo in CF until they prove they can only help at replacement level.
Second, thanks for reminding me that we can still love the Mets regardless of the ownership or the front office performance.
Bill-
Seattle gave up:
Nick Neidert, 20 RHSP, reached high A, 254.0 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 7.6 K/9. 1.6 BB/9, looks really good (has become Miami's #7 prospect)
Christopher Torres, 19 SS/2B, reached low A, 584 ABs, .248/.342/.384/.742 glove looks weak, has some good speed (Listed as Marlins #14 prospect)
Robert Dugger, 21, who reached high A, 156.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 1.168 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 profiles better as a reliever (not ranked among Miami's Top 30)
My package for Dee:
Marcos Molina, 22 RHSP, reached AA, 336.0 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 8.0 K/9. 2.2 BB/9, (our #6 prospect) EDGE TO NEIDERT.
Luis Guillorme, 22 SS, reached AA, 1774 ABs, .285/.361/.328/.688 great glove, no pop but good speed. (our #11 prospect) EDGE TO GUILLORME
Juan Lagares OK, you can't compare an experienced Gold Glove CF with a 21 yr old pitcher who might make it as a reliever.
Overall, I do think my package stacks up very well against what the M's gave up for Gordon. Both Molina and Guillorme are closer to MLB ready than the two prospects Seattle traded away.
Herb,
Solid proposal but I'd rather have the three instead of Gordon and hit contract.
I'd do that deal in a heartbeat, but I don't think Seattle would. They decided they prefer Gordon to prospects.
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