Tom Brennan - HEY, CAN I PITCH TOO?
Mack posted on December 31 that there are a slew of bullpen candidates for the 2018 Mets - and that is so true.
Will many get a chance to pitch in Queens? If it was 2017 all over again, they sure would.
Why? In 2017, the Mets were forced to use 28 pitchers, and 29 if you add Kevin Plawecki and his emergency innings.
No wonder the US unemployment figures have plunged!
2017 was a fluky (and pukey) Mets pitching year indeed.
In the 3 prior seasons, by comparison, the Mets used just 22 pitchers in 2 of the 3, and 26 in the other, season (2015).
A stark contrast to 1969, where the Championship Mets used just FIFTEEN pitchers, and in 1985, as the Mets fought the Cardinals tooth and nail right to the bitter end, with no time for scrubs to pitch, where they used just 17 pitchers.
My guess is with greater pitcher health in 2018, we may see about 25 pitchers used, give or take.
But, Heavens to Murgatroid, who will they be?
First, some WON'T be. Pitchers from the "Fantastic 28 of 2017" that won't pitch for the Mets in 2018 include Adam Wilk, Fernando Salas, Tommy Milone, Tyler Pill, Josh Edgin, Neil Ramirez, Eric Goeddel, and Sean Gilmartin. Buh bye, fellas. That gets us down to 20. And now that Addison Reed is a Twinkie, count him out, getting us to 19.
Obviously, in those remaining 19, there are five guys (Callahan, Rhame, Bradford, McGowan, and Flexen) who were mostly minor leaguers called up towards season's end - but they each did get their toes in the water. Nice to have that sort of a head start on others yet to see the big leagues light of day. Especially Mr. Bradford, who done real good.
Other than those 5 newbies, there were 14 other guys who were more of the 2017 core, however injured they may have been: Jake, Thor, Matt, Steve, Zach, Lugo, Gsellman, Rafael, Jeurys, Jerry, Hansel, Ramos, Sewald, and Smoker. Add in Anthony Swarzak and you have fifteen.
Thirteen of those fifteen are likely to go north either on opening day or get called up and pitch within the first week.
Obviously, in those remaining 19, there are five guys (Callahan, Rhame, Bradford, McGowan, and Flexen) who were mostly minor leaguers called up towards season's end - but they each did get their toes in the water. Nice to have that sort of a head start on others yet to see the big leagues light of day. Especially Mr. Bradford, who done real good.
Other than those 5 newbies, there were 14 other guys who were more of the 2017 core, however injured they may have been: Jake, Thor, Matt, Steve, Zach, Lugo, Gsellman, Rafael, Jeurys, Jerry, Hansel, Ramos, Sewald, and Smoker. Add in Anthony Swarzak and you have fifteen.
Thirteen of those fifteen are likely to go north either on opening day or get called up and pitch within the first week.
In April of 2018, the Mets (with good health) likely would like to use no more than 15 or 16 pitchers. And maybe Mickey Callaway will want to use more guys for less innings, which could bring April's tally to 17.
If the Mets do use my projected 25 pitchers in 2018, the aforementioned 20 core, and toes-already-in-the-water, guys are most likely to get first dibs, absent trades or spring training injuries.
Who amongst the minor leaguers who've not yet made the big leagues are most likely to be in the final five that brings us to my expected target of 25 pitchers in 2018?
Tyler Bashlor: his high heat gets him to Queens by Sept.
Corey Oswalt: could be mid- or late-season starter call up.
Kyle Regnault: great 2017 in high minors. Give Kyle a shot.
Drew Smith: young quality pen arm that came is a trade - I see a September call up for him.
Tim Peterson: great in AA, but the inn in Queens is packed.
Marcos Molina: trailing Oswalt as a starter call up option.
Gerson Bautista: see Bashlor; further behind. 2019 ETA.
Kelly Secrest: lefties are valuable if one goes down.
Ben Griset: see Secrest.
Dave Roseboom: see Secrest. Needs 2018 to show health.
Matt Purke: some MLB experience, but not great IMO.
Logan Taylor, Josh Prevost, Ricky Knapp:
* Trio of decent high minors arms facing tons of competition.
Matt Blackham: great in Full A; High A, AA, and AAA still to go - too many levels to cover, so see ya in Queens in 2019.
Mickey Jannis: ya never know..he improved & is a wild card.
Former 44th rounder and knuckle baller is an odds-beater.
Justin Dunn: poor 2017 makes 2019 look like his ETA. Lots of ground to cover in 2018/
Who amongst the minor leaguers who've not yet made the big leagues are most likely to be in the final five that brings us to my expected target of 25 pitchers in 2018?
My list, in probability order:
Likely at some point in 2018:
Tyler Bashlor: his high heat gets him to Queens by Sept.
Corey Oswalt: could be mid- or late-season starter call up.
Kyle Regnault: great 2017 in high minors. Give Kyle a shot.
Less likely in 2018:
Drew Smith: young quality pen arm that came is a trade - I see a September call up for him.
Tim Peterson: great in AA, but the inn in Queens is packed.
Marcos Molina: trailing Oswalt as a starter call up option.
Gerson Bautista: see Bashlor; further behind. 2019 ETA.
Kelly Secrest: lefties are valuable if one goes down.
Ben Griset: see Secrest.
Dave Roseboom: see Secrest. Needs 2018 to show health.
Matt Purke: some MLB experience, but not great IMO.
Very long shot in 2018:
Logan Taylor, Josh Prevost, Ricky Knapp:
* Trio of decent high minors arms facing tons of competition.
Matt Blackham: great in Full A; High A, AA, and AAA still to go - too many levels to cover, so see ya in Queens in 2019.
Mickey Jannis: ya never know..he improved & is a wild card.
Former 44th rounder and knuckle baller is an odds-beater.
Justin Dunn: poor 2017 makes 2019 look like his ETA. Lots of ground to cover in 2018/
Hope I did not overlook anyone obvious.
I am pretty nearsighted, you know.
I am pretty nearsighted, you know.
These fellas better not relax one iota in their pursuit -
there are, after all, tons of other minors arms behind them hoping to break through in 2019 thru 2021.
Which is my next article's topic, naturally.
Which is my next article's topic, naturally.
15 comments:
Even teams that are relatively healthy know they'll use more than 15-16 pitchers given that they're already carrying 13 pitchers.
Tom -
your ;ist looks like the same as mine.
Great minds...
Drew Smith likely is in Vegas to start the year while Rhame, Callahan, and Bradford compete for a spot or two, so I can see him coming up before September.
Next -- how many lineup combinations were used? :)
How about Conlon as the second lefty bullpen arm?
PJ (Conlon) is the TJ of pitchers.
20-12 in 295 IP, 2.35 and 1.07 WHIP in MiL career. Hope he gets a shot.
@ David Klein - my 15 to 16 pitchers used only referred to April - I think they will need about 25 pitchers over the course of this season.
Conlon will have the luck of the Irish and break thru in 2018 or 2019.
I think pitching-wise in the minors, the Mets are at least a middle of the field team going into 2018, and more likely a top half team pitching-prospect-wise. Time, of course, will tell.
Where were all these guys when Shaun Marcum went 1-10?
Reese, there were 162 games in 2017, so by my adroit calculations, Terry Collins used 163 different line ups.
Hobie got here before me, but I am 100% with him on P.J. Conlon. His MILB stats are great, as Hobie pointed out . . but his splits as a reliever are other worldly. (admittedly a small sample of 27.1 IP and 97 batters faced)
ERA- 0.33, WHIP- 0.768, K/9- 11.5, BB/9- 1.6, and OBA .165
He definitely has a shot in 2018, and could even break camp as part of the pen if given the chance in spring training.
Herb, nice case for the defense of one PJ Conlon!
Herb,
Hadn't realized PJ's relief dominance. Had in mind PJ as SP5 (& #2 LHP) with Wheeler as Addison Reed.
OK, January fantasy.
Hey, I forgot to ask: how the heck is everyone today anyway?
Personally, in the immortal words of James Brown, "I feel good!"
Everybody is feeling better than that N.O. Saints safety... I imagine.
Hobie, ouch!
Hey Hobie,
I don't think any of the Mets youngsters will break into the rotation this year, unless Gsellman has figured it out over the winter and dazzles in spring.
I still have hope that Alderson is waiting in the weeds for some bargain arms to come to him as February rolls around. I don't think Cashner or Vargas will still be around then, but I would not be surprised to see a Dickey reunion or a Chris Tillman reclamation project in March. If someone emerges to claim that spot #5, Zack moves to the pen.
Meanwhile, I am rootin' for P.J. in the pen.
Post a Comment