Tom Brennan:
THOUGHTS - KEITH LAW METS PROSPECT RANKINGS
Minor league
guru Keith Law just came out with his list of the top 23 minor leaguers in the
Mets system.
I got antsy and did my list back in October and November.
On many of his
rankings, he and I were quite close.
Here’s
his Mets list, with my thoughts alongside:
KEITH LAW
RANKING
|
TB #
|
COMMENTS
|
1.
LHP David
Peterson
|
# 3
|
Hard for me to make him # 1 with just 3 innings of pro pitching,
but his ceiling is very high.
|
2.
SS Andres Gimenez
|
# 2
|
Great minds think alike!
|
3.
RHP Justin Dunn
|
# 14
|
I hope he deserves Keith's # 3; I was disappointed that after a
bad season start, Dunn got better, but then struggled again. I hope for a big 2018 here, though.
|
4.
1B Peter Alonso
|
# 1
|
His high-powered bat has me overweighting him as my #
1. He is Amazon, and folks will see it
in 2018.
|
5.
SS Mark Vientos
|
# 7
|
I think he could be a top 5 prospect this time next year. Showed real promise in 2017.
|
6.
LHP Anthony Kay
|
# 19
|
No pro innings pitched yet, and TJS, so I started him lower ranked. Hopefully a top 5 this time next year.
|
7.
LHP Thomas Szapucki
|
# 4
|
Great arm if he fully heals from TJS and returns like an ace in 2019.
|
8.
OF Desmond Lindsay
|
# 11
|
I am still highly confident in him IF AND ONLY IF he finally can stay
healthy. A starting Mets OF by 2020 if he does.
|
9.
SS Ronny Mauricio
|
NR
|
Just me, but until a guy gets in a pro game, I prefer to
only rank guys above age 16 who have played. Next year, Ronny!
|
10.
RHP Jordan Humphreys
|
# 20
|
Great 2017 season in A ball, but TJS which will
cost him all of 2018 pushed him, for me, out of the top 10.
|
11.
RHP Chris Flexen
|
MLB
|
Technically still rookie-eligible, but he was on the Mets
more than a third of last season, and only came under in innings due to
getting shelled. I consider him a major
leaguer, though, who may still need some time in the minors, so I promoted
him.
|
12.
SS Gavin Cecchini
|
# 15
|
May he hit like 2016 and field like 2017 in 2018.
|
13.
SS Luis Guillorme
|
# 10
|
Great field, but his bat as MLB caliber is still a question mark. My rank is close to Mr. Law’s.
|
14.
RHP Marcos Molina
|
# 8
|
Last year was his post-TJS readjustment year, and
we see the real, better Molina in 2018, so I had him ranked higher.
|
15.
RHP Tyler Bashlor
|
# 6
|
I don’t discount relievers as much as most prospect rankers do, since
guys like Jantsen, Familia, Miller, etc. are MLB relievers with huge team
impacts, and I think Tyler is going to be REAL good in the pen.
|
16.
C Tomas Nido
|
# 17
|
We’d both have him higher if this catcher hit better.
|
17.
3B Jhoan Urena
|
# 13
|
Keith is probably right here. I gave Urena the benefit of the doubt at #
13, perhaps too much.
|
18.
C Patrick Mazeika
|
# 16
|
We’d both have this catcher higher if he was better
defensively. Some wonder if he will
show power, too.
|
19.
OF Quinn Brodey
|
NR
|
Disappointed me last year on a hitting-starved Cyclones
team, but hope he’s in my top 10 this fall.
63 Ks in 63 games without power made me not want to shoehorn him into
my top 25 last fall.
|
20.
3B David Thompson
|
# 22
|
Being ranked that (relatively) low by both of us certainly acknowledges
he has talent, but I am unclear (speaking for myself) if there is enough total talent to
be an impact major league starting 3B.
|
21.
RHP Corey Oswalt
|
# 5
|
I understand Keith’s lower ranking; my gut says that
Oswalt surprises us again in 2018 so I had him higher.
|
22.
RHP Gerson Bautista
|
# 21
|
We were close on ranking this high velocity arm. Let's see if he can harness that 100 MPH
stuff better in 2018 and, if so, rush to the big leagues.
|
23.
SS Gregory Guerrero
|
NR
|
Talent is most likely there, and he had injuries that messed up his 2017,
but I want to see him actually hit like cousin Vlad Jr. before I put him in
my top 25.
|
NR – was not ranked in my Top 25
MLB – I consider him a major leaguer already, even if
technically still ROY-eligible.
12 comments:
the 2018 MLB draft better produce 2 top 100 Prospect for this team... Period
When ship is "tender" in has low stability and tends to make long, slow rolls back & forth (Ancient Mariner speaking here). The Mets Farm is tender.
A starting rotation of Peterson, Dunn, Kay & Szapuki could swing anywhere between the '71 Orioles & the '17 Mets. Very tender. Add DeGrom & Thor and put, say, Dunn in the pen with Molina, Bashlor, Bautista and the NR'd Adonis Uceta and the potential ceiling/floor roll becomes enormous.
Guillorme could surprise (& I'm rooting for him, as well as Quinn Brody), but I have much more confidence in Gimnez & Alonso making an impact the Show (along with the NR'd Kacz). 2 centavos.
I have some faith in the draft improving with the return of Omar Minaya.
Hobie, I have Kaczmarski at # 9 - I am banking on him adding 50-100 pounds of muscle in the offeason, of course.
Alonso was taking batting practice in Florida just now, and hit one that just missed my desk on Long Island. Kong II?
The Mets pitching, just with what it has in Queens and on the farm currently, could be strong for years if health becomes much less of an issue, IMO.
I think the floor for dunn is a lot higher then we tend to think. worst case scenario he should be a high quality reliever. Maybe not a number 3, but an 7th/8th inning guy. Thats the floor. think about Familia, who went from a top prospect to a guy who wasnt showing enough as a starter to a closer who will make 12-18 mm next year as a free agent. Not saying he's familia but guys who might be starters that could end up being top quality relivers if starting doesnt pan out are some of the worse valued prospects in baseball.
I still think dunn could be a starter.
Also Peterson should be a top 50 prospect in mlb by mid season lists, bc he's profile is a 2/3 lefty (b+/A-) with durability and that guy usually dominates minor league hitters.
Robb, from your lips to God's ears on Dunn and Peterson.
Perhaps a little too soon to be making judgement on vast majority of prospects on the list. Until a player has obvious success at the AA Level, I don't get excited because there is little reason to. The three players I am watching from this list though, are SS Gimenez and Vientos, and then my hope because he has a very impressive HR swing Peter Alonso.
I find it interesting here that within a couple of seasons of each other we are loaded with good young shortstop prospects (Rosario, Gimenez, and Vientos) Maybe two stick and the other fetches the Mets something they do not have within their own organization. This is how it works.
Reviewing 2017 NY Mets Pitching...
This was a ghastly effort at best in 2017. How a team drops that far, that fast, I have no clue on. Injuries I guess.
NYM came in No.28 out of 30 MLB teams. Preseason, many experts had the NYM winning their division. I think that it's possible the 1964 NYM fared better in team pitching, but will have to go check.
Just six pitchers had under 4.00 ERA's. Bradford 3.74, Edgin (ex-Met) 3.65, deGrom 3.53, Syndergaard 2.97, Blevins 2.94, Reed (ex-Met) 2.57. And what makes it even worse is that Kevin Plawecki had a better ERA (12.00) than Adam Wilk 12.27, and Sean Gilmartian 13.50. Go Kevin!
Was just reading up on the theorization of "why all the TJS on younger pitchers just entering MLB." Interesting. Experts used to say that it was kids using the curveball pitch way too much because the pros were. But today, it is the overuse of not the curveball but actually the fastball pitch. Need evidence > NYM last four seasons. Add in here too...the nutrition of food being eaten.
One pitcher I have mentioned here prior is little noticed Kyle Regnault. He is a lefty, age 29, within system, has four pitches and is a crafty-minded pitcher. Pitches his fastball 89-93. Used mostly out of relief but in my opinion could start lower end of rotation. We need a more finesse style pitcher within the 2018 rotation, just to add a different style to it and balance.
I like the idea of getting away from having all fastball demons on this team. Regnault just needs to sharpen his curve some, add a little more bite to his slider and then right there you have another lefty on your pitching staff that could help.
Please give Kyle an invite to ST and have the new pitching coach work with him so he can be MLB sharp.
On the question of MORE or LESS optimistic in 2018...
Historically the NYM team building philosophy has not changed very much in some while. The Mets basically make similar types of player personnel decisions season to season, leading to fairly similar result.
If injuries are the most pointed at reason for a team having a subpar season, then something should eventually be done to prevent that from happening in the very next season, again.
So as a result of this, I too remain neither optimistic nor pessimistic on this team and will await being hopefully surprised in 2018. Still, it is really the only professional sports team that I follow now, having long ago given totally up on the Knicks and Football Giants who are hapless and hopeless beyond human description.
I have changed my mind and have decided to be optimistic about the 2018 season right from the get-go, and not neutral in the "wait and see mode" I had mentioned here just yesterday. What really convinced me was after reading Kevin Kernan's NY Post article today on Manager Mickey Callaway and how he plans to revitalize and keep healthy the Mets rotation. I am really liking the way Manager Mickey Callaway thinks, I am not kidding. This was huge for me to get pumped up on 2018!
Mickey Callaway is even seriously thinking about going to the much debated (but seriously needed for the last seven seasons) six-man rotation to rest and keep well his starter's arms. Finally, someone this wise. I must be dreaming. And he has a brand new training workout regiment for starters prior to even taking the field to warm up and short toss.
I am totally sold on this new Manager Callaway after reading this article today. Mickey Callaway and new Mets Pitching Coach Dave Eiland sound like the real deal to me. A thinking fan's manager and coach for once. Maybe now, no more seven relievers in every single Mets game fans, throwing three pitches each? Maybe no more calling up minor league pitchers of little ability later season after the whole starting rotation goes out hurt with serious arm injuries and the season tanks right before our eyes.
If Manager Callaway and Dave Eiland can keep our starting rotation healthy all or most of this 2018 season through ingenuity and proper preparation (and in good shape especially going into mid-September) then I think that we will see a marvelous opportunity present itself to this 2018 NY Mets team to make the playoffs. I really do.
Thank you NY Post and Kevin Kernan!
Intriguing perhaps question that I would like to pose here, since I recently read that Miami Marlin catcher JT Realmuto is still asking to be traded.
Q: What do you think it would take for the NY Mets to acquire JT Realmuto from Miami? Be realistic here.
Reasoning: I just think that because there are so exceedingly few really good power hitting catchers in MLB (or close to MLB) that acquiring someone for these 2018 NYM with Realmuto's capabilities could put this team offensively into a more attack minded position heading into 2018.
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