Mike Friere asks –
Assuming the Mets'
frugal ways continue, they will not be able to afford a long term contract for
both Noah Syndergaard and Jacob DeGrom.
If you were forced to choose, which one would you sign to a long term
deal and why?
Chris Soto says -
If i have to pick between the two. I have to go with Thor due
to his age.
We have to remember that deGrom started his MLB career very
late at age 26. Because of the way the arbitration works, he is already stuck
being Mets property through his age 32 season.
There is no question in my mind that degrom will continue to
pitch well after that. But the odds of him maintaining velocity at age 33, 34,
35, etc. decreasing with each passing year. In addition, as we've have seen
this offseason, teams are just not selling out to sign older players to long
expensive contracts.
In comparison, Syndergaard can potentially reach free at age
29 and would most certainly be able to maintain his stuff for an additional 3-4
years before we start seeing a potential decline.
Tom Brennan says –
I would choose Thor, assuming he would be more durable than
Jake, but honestly, I'd have to flip a coin.
Whichever we would not keep, we'd have to get killer prospects in return
Eddie Corona says –
Great question
There is an argument for both... Thor is younger, Jake is
more proven...
Here's how I would handle it and it's based on how I believe
the Mets operate... Whoever I believe I
could get the most return for, I would sign the other guy. So in essence I am
saying I would keep the lesser of the 2. Now in this argument that is not a bad
thing. They are both Ace Worthy and excellent pitchers.
Under these guidelines I would sign DeGrom. Jake seem to
remind me of the pitching version of David Wright.
Someone who could be an ambassador going forward. Thor being younger and a
harder thrower, I believe would have a higher return in prospects.
Now my ideal situation is sign both and compliment them with
the large number of arms on the way but that's not the question is it...
Mack says –
I happen to think that Syndergaard has more talent, but
deGrom has his head screwed on tighter.
We all know pitching is 50% or more mental and my guess is
that Syndergaard still has some growing up to do, which means he would have a
higher propensity to make a career ending mistake.
He also would currently bring the team the larger return on a
trade.
So… I keep Mr. deGrom, and go get myself two top 50
prospects, one an SP and the other either a catcher, second baseman, or third
baseman.
Reese Kaplan says –
There are both on-the-field reasons and off-the-field reasons
to make this type of decision. Noah Syndergaard and his "Thor" persona are
easy to market to the fans and age stands in his favor. He has had his own health problem this past
year but it appears to be a one-off thing.
He has not had the seemingly mandatory TJS yet and that may factor into
fears of a long term deal.
Jacob deGrom has far exceeded expectations, particularly when you consider
he was a converted infielder. His long
hair and his workmanlike demeanor have made him a fan favorite. The fact that both he and the Mets have
deferred a contract extension AND that he's shorn his famous locks, I'm
thinking there's a divorce in their future.
Personally I think deGrom is the better bet but I think
they'll more likely look at the age difference and the huge social media
following Syndergaard has already earned and I think they will go for the
blond.
Mike Friere says –
This is sort of like comparing different flavors of ice cream. Maybe you prefer one over the other, but
having ice cream is still a pretty good deal regardless of the flavor.
In the case of Noah v. Jake, you have two excellent pitchers
to choose from. Ideally, the Mets figure
out a way to keep both of them and this question becomes a moot point.
However, something tells me that one of them may end up on
the move in the not so distant future, in a "get something for one of them
before you lose them" type of trade.
Not what you want to hear, but it would keep salaries manageable while
potentially adding talent to the minor league pipeline.
The first two things that jump off the page are their
respective ages (Noah will be 25 this year and Jake will be 30) and their sizes
(Noah is a beast and Jake has more of a classic pitcher's build), which
indirectly relates to the third issue.....HEALTH! Noah has basically pitched the equivalent of
two full seasons out of a possible three due to his injuries last year. Jake has been a bit more reliable, pitching
close to four seasons while only missing a handful of starts in two of them.
As far as performance, over the course of a full season Jake
has averaged roughly 4.61 WAR, while Noah has averaged 4.15 WAR.
Contract status is the final factor, with Jake hitting free
agency in 2021, while Noah will not be eligible until 2022.
If you promised me that Noah would stay reasonably healthy,
you have to pick him simply due to his age and the bulk of his prime in front
of him. That would make Jake a prime
trade target
during the 2019 or 2020 season, depending on the status of
the team and what was being offered, etc.
Hopefully, Sandy an figure out a way to keep both of them so
we don't have to answer questions like this.
5 comments:
My heart says deGrom because at this point, he is a better pitcher, able to win even when his stuff is not at 100%, better arsenal, a leader who leads by example and someone who does all the right things and stays out of controversies.
My brain says Syndergaard because he has better power pitches, is younger, durable but not yet a true pitcher like deGrom. Has a little Harvey on him which I don't like but if had to choose, I would pick Syndergaard.
I picked Thor over Jake - but that does not mean I don't think BOTH have a chance to be in the Hall of Fame some day if all goes right.
When do the years of team control end for each? I'm not sure, but I I think has 2 or 3 years more than Jake. If so, sign Jake now and see how Thor fares in tje upcoming seasons.
I think JD is a year earlier then NS......2021 and 2022, I believe.
YOure really talking about 2 different types of contracts. Degrom is more a Kluber type bc of the age and their late starts. While Thor is a felix Hernandez type contract.
I know this is stupid bc the mets, but they could do and should do both.
Give JD, his 4 year deal with 2 options that take him till he's 36/37 (75mm+)
and give thor the one that buys out a year of free agency. Thor will get really expensive if he has a great year both were super 2 giving them 4 arbs and 20+ mm last year of arb projections.
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