1/17/18

Michael Friere - Who is Josh Harrison?



After reading a couple of different articles on this blog of late, not to mention a few comments, I started thinking about a player that has been mentioned quite a bit by the name of Josh Harrison.  A lot of names get bandied about during the “hot stove” season and his has been a popular one.  It is easy to say “trade Player X and Player Y for Josh Harrison”, but what would that acquisition do for the Mets?

Taking a step backward, it is my personal belief that the biggest void on the Mets’ roster this year is at second base and an accompanying void is at the top of the batting order.  With a limited bench due to a possible eight man bullpen, it makes sense to try and fill a void with a player that can “kill two birds with one stone” so to speak.  Some folks here would prefer that Wilmer Flores get a shot at second base, or even Asdrubal Cabrera (if the Mets solve their third base issue with a different player).  I like both players well enough, but neither of them are lead off hitters and they would be adequate at best with the glove.   In 2018, I want my second baseman to be above average defensively and I also want him to be an effective leadoff hitter, which brings us back around to the original question.    Who the heck is Josh Harrison?

Josh is currently a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, where he fills an important “utility type” role for the ball club.  He is listed as a second baseman, third baseman and an outfielder, which makes him quite versatile.  Looking a bit deeper, he has played in 722 games over seven seasons for the Pirates.  Of those games, here is his positional breakdown;  2B - 310 games, 3B - 264 games, OF - 110 games, SS - 37 games, DH - 2 games and Pitcher - 1 game (interesting).  I am statistically inclined, so using percentages, Josh has played roughly 84% of his games somewhere in the infield, with 2B (43%) and 3B (37%) being the most common.

There is more, but so far, this seems to fit in very well with our current roster issues, right?

Looking at his defense, it won’t necessarily blow your socks off when compared to someone like Omar Vizquel.  However, he has more then held his own, especially when you consider he was bounced around the diamond.  All of the positive value that his versatility brings also has a negative affect on his defense, since you cannot get settled at one spot on a daily basis.  With that said, he still has a respectable 4.7 dWAR over his career and as a bonus, his best fielding position has been 2B, where he has a .985 fielding percentage and he has only committed 20 errors in 310 games (average of 10 errors per season).   I would wager that if you put him at 2B for a full season, his fielding rates would stabilize and he would be more then adequate.

So far so good, he is versatile and he fills a need on the current roster.   But wait, there’s more!

Over the course of seven seasons, he has appeared in 722 games, largely due to his first couple of seasons in the league where he was a part time player at best.  If you divide 722 games played by 150 games (an average season for most players), you get just under five full seasons (4.8) for statistical purposes.

With that said, his average offensive line looks like this;

.281/.321/.414 (AVG/OBP/SLG) and .735 OPS

9 HR - 48 RBI - 15 SB - 67 R

2.85 WAR

His 2017 season was actually above those numbers, so he is trending in the right direction and he is capable of leading off for most teams in the league, in my humble opinion.  So, he fits a need on the roster and in the lineup, by all accounts.

Hold on!  Fred is on the phone and he wants to know what Josh's contract looks like.

Josh is signed for the 2018 season at $10,250,000 before entering two additional option years, valued at $10,500,000 (2019) and $11,500,000 (2020).  They are team options that also have a buyout of $1,000,000 (2019) and $500,000 (2020), so if he was acquired and things didn’t work out, you could conceivably get out from under his contract at a fairly cheap rate.   In short, his contract is basically three years at $32,250,000 with very little downside when you factor in the option years.   That’s pretty good value for a player of his ilk and he is only available because the Pirates seem to be going “full Marlins” for the coming season.

Lastly, what will be the cost of obtaining him in a trade?   That is something I am less confident about, but if the Pirates are looking to slash salary and to add some talent to their minor leagues, then I am sure there is a match somewhere.  Brandon Nimmo’s name was mentioned in one of the articles that I saw and he would be a nice start for the Pirates.  With Cespedes, Conforto (eventually), Bruce and Lagares on the roster, Nimmo is expendable for the right player.  Yes, it would leave the roster a bit short if Conforto is delayed to start the year, but that could be addressed with a veteran stop gap type player and it shouldn’t be for long.

We also have a surplus of pitching, especially minor league bullpen arms.  So, maybe Nimmo and a couple of relievers for Harrison?  If he Mets take most of the money in the deal, I think the Pirates would be happy to move on from Josh’s contract.

In closing, I think Josh Harrison is a perfect fit for the roster and at the top of the lineup where we currently don’t have anyone capable of leading off.  He will mostly play 2B, but he is also capable of playing 3B which would come in handy in 2019 or 2020 if another prospect makes it to Flushing and takes over 2B, like Luis Guillorme.  Additionally, his contract is manageable and it also has an escape clause in the form of option years, if he doesn’t work out.

That’s who Josh Harrison is and I think Sandy needs to get on the phone with the Pirates!





14 comments:

Mack Ade said...

I don't know Michael...

He has good numbers but his defense is not what I want in the mi9dle of the infield,

I really my heart set on Guillorme in 2019.

Reese Kaplan said...

So, in other words Mack, you're looking for a one-year Jose Reyes stopgap at 2B?

At this point in their careers, who's the better fit at 2B -- Reyes or Brandon Phillips?

Mack Ade said...

I can live with FLores in 2018

Mike Freire said...

I think Josh would be a great "get".......he would play 2B for now, but he has value in 2019 and 2020 because if he gets bumped from 2B by a better player, at worst he is a guy who will get 600 AB's by playing in other spots.

The pipeline at third base is a bit barren, short of moving someone from a different position (Gimenez??), so Josh would be around to man the position in the short term.

Depends on the cost in trade, but I think he would be worth it.

Tom Brennan said...

Josh Harrison in a trade, or Nunez or Frazier as non-trade free agents. Which of the three Reyes makes 4) make the most sense? Tough question.

Robb said...

Pirate seem to be targeting pre-arb playerst. I would say Plawecki & nimmo would be the centerpiece of any deal, plus a bullpen arm. Maybe both.

Mack, you can shift harrison over to 3rd base in 2019 if the Mets dont pony up for machado as cabrera will be out. and then you can get Guillome.

Unknown said...

Guillorme is a 700 ops guy in as and may never hit mlb pitching I prefer Harrison.

Unknown said...

Way too much I rather keep both guys I think they'll break out this year.

TexasGusCC said...

Nimmo and Flores for Harrison and a prospect. That's what I'd do if I were the Pirates. Flores will be a beast, but it won't be here. It's hard to find more heart than him. Nimmo is serviceable until Austin Meadows is ready. Flores will be our next Daniel Murphy/Justin Turner. Alderson is a smug moron.

Unknown said...

Not everyone can be a genuis like Omar Minaya, you know what I'm saying?

TexasGusCC said...

I'm not comparing GM's. What I'm comparing is Alderson's lack of understanding that OPS isn't the end of the world and seeing what a player can be with regular time. Many solid players struggle at first in an area through inconsistent playing time. Flores may have his flaws, but his heart will make him work harder and controllable power hitting second basemen don't just grow on trees. Flores was pissed on by Bozo the Manager; I hope the new guy gives him a look.

Mike Freire said...

On my optimal team, Flores is a Ben Zobrist clone.......he can get 450-500 at bats by filling in at 1B, 2B and 3B throughout the year. Plus, he is a top notch pinch hitter against left handed pitching on days he isn't in the lineup.

Sadly, we don't have a regular DH spot, because that would be another avenue to get him some at bats.

I just don't see him as a 150 game starter.

Herb G said...

I'm all in on Harrison. In November I said that Todd Frazier should be Sandy's #1 target in free agency. Now that Harrison has reared his head, I can see that all Michael's points make sense. In fact, they make such good sense, that I made the same points in an email to Alderson yesterday comparing Harrison with Frazier and Nunez. (Not that he listens to anything I say. I just like spouting off.)

Mack- I'm not sure why you think his fielding is wanting. Last year he had a UZR/150 just even at 0 at 2B, but it was 3.0 at 3rd. His DRS was 6 at 2nd and 2 at 3rd (in half as many innings) Career wise, he is a 1.5 UZR/150 at 2nd and a 7.6 at 3rd. He is clearly a + fielder. Far superior to Nunez, although not as good as Frazier.

But Frazier would be limited primarily to 3B, while Harrison has more versatility. Interesting that Harrison profiles better at 3rd while Cabrera profiles better at 2nd. But Alderson seems to prioritize defense up the middle ofer defense down the 3B line. So Harrison would likely play 2nd. As Robb said, in '19 you can move Harrison to 3B if Guillorme looks like he can hit at the MLB level.

The rub is that Sandy said yesterday that he would prefer signing a FA over making a trade, in order to keep his prospects. That said, I would revert back to my original choice of Frazier if we can't have Harrison.

Mike Freire said...

Thanks, Herb.......I think we are a better team with Josh Harrison on the roster, compared to the current edition. I guess it comes down to the final cost in trade.

I think Sandy may be playing mind games in the media, regarding trades? (or I hope so).