OK, so I am not above admitting that I have been wrong before. Perhaps my lovely wife would be surprised to hear this confession, but it happens with as much regularity as anyone else, I am sure. With that being said, my opinions on most things are generated from my observations and from things that I read from others who are much more qualified then I am (depending upon the topic).
In this case, it is a topic that concerns our favorite baseball team and a portion of their roster that may or may not be in “good hands” for the 2018 season.
In true “Let’s Make A Deal” fashion, I will list three alternatives below and I want each of you to select the player that you would prefer, based upon their past production. For the statistics, the numbers will represent the “career averages” for the player in question. Any of the percentage statistics will be listed as such, while the “counting statistics” will be divided by the number of “full” seasons played. This figure is total at bats divided by 600, which is roughly a full season, give or take a few. Doing it in this fashion helps to round out players who may have missed time due to injury or other roster related issue.
Later in the article, I will reveal who the three players are and add my two cents (of course). So, let’s get on with it with Player A, Player B and Player C;
Player A Player B Player C
Career 11 YRS (8.56 Seasons) 7 YRS (5.58 Seasons) 7 YRS (5.53 Seasons)
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS .270/.331/.420 (.752) .245/.321/.459 (.779) .251/.305/.425 (.730)
HR/RBI/SB/RS 16.2/73.6/10.1/80.8 31.3/89.2/11.1/83.9 21.5/68.5/1.6/61.8
WAR (AVG) 3.02 3.94 2.06
FL%/Er/dWAR .978/14.3/0.25 .972/13.9/0.61 .960/15.7/0.51
***Sorry for the font size, but it would not format correctly any other way.
So, any early guesses on who Players A, B and C may be? A quick hint would be that they all are expected to play third base (primarily) for the 2018 season, despite where they may have played in their past years in MLB.
Which one would you be most interested in for the coming season? On first blush, you may be interested in Player B, followed by Player A and then Player C. There is a lack of quality third basemen in baseball these days, so any of the three would be sufficient for a team with aspirations on making the playoffs.
Since I am pretty poor at keeping a secret, you may be surprised to learn that Player A is Asdrubal Cabrera, Player B is Todd Frazier and Player C is Mike Moustakas!
If you simply follow the talking heads when they discuss the free agent market, Mike Moustakas is usually viewed as one of the "best remaining players on the free agent market", with Todd Frazier a distant second. As far as Asdrubal Cabrera is concerned, most feel like he “will be OK” at third base, but that he would be better served elsewhere on the diamond, or even on the bench.
***Also remember that AC played a majority of his games at a more demanding position (SS) through the years, so his defensive statistics should be viewed accordingly (although they have been a bit rough as he has aged).
The listed statistics are one thing, but what about costs? This is the Mets we are talking about and that always matters on some level.
Well, AC is already secured for 2018 with a 8.5 million dollar deal and he has shown that he can handle NY for the most part (outside of his "pout-fest" last year when he was asked to move to a different position). Plus, he can also fill in at several other positions if needed, so that’s a plus.
TF is a free agent and has also shown that he can play well in the NY market, not to mention that he has played a majority of his career in the NL. That and he also has some positional versatility, with a bulk of his appearances at 3B (followed by 1B and some OF). I am not sure what he is looking for at this point in the off season, but I can’t see his demands being too large with Spring Training right around the corner. Total guesswork here, but maybe a two or three year deal at approximately 8 to 10 million dollars per year?
Lastly we come to MM, who as stated above, is the marquee free agent third baseman for this off season. He is a very good player who had an excellent season in 2017 (good timing). Overall, his career statistics are actually less impressive, or even pedestrian, to include his defensive prowess. Plus, he has been a member of just one organization his entire career and he has played just one position during that time. Could he survive the “cauldron" that is NY? Would he come close to justifying the monster contract that he is potentially waiting for? Some have speculated that he wants in excess of 20 million per year over five years, or a nine figure contract when all is said and done, which is insane in my humble opinion.
Considering past performance, financial cost and the general “fit” for each of the players, I would rule out MM right off the bat. I think that contract would have DISASTER written all over it and the relationship between the player and the team would end poorly. Definitely NOT what the Mets need when they are already paying another third baseman a ton of money, but getting very little production from him due to catastrophic injuries.
AC is already in the fold, so that one is easy. What isn’t quite as easy is trying to figure out if he is best served at third base, second base or as a “super utility player”. I think Sandy’s remaining personnel decisions will dictate where AC eventually plays this season, which is still to be determined. At this point, he is penciled in at third base, but I stress the “penciled” part (which can easily be changed).
IF I were tasked with this decision, I would bring Todd Frazier aboard so long as his contract doesn’t get “out of hand”. His batting average gets some negative press, but the rest of his statistical output more then makes up for that. He is also solid with the glove and third base is HIS POSITION, so he would likely be more comfortable then AC, who hasn’t spent much time there. This would free up AC to either play second base, or serve as a utility player who will help the ball club in a number of ways, while strengthening the bench at the same time.
In short, I think the Mets are a stronger team with TF on the roster, playing third base. But, if that doesn’t happen, then they will likely be in pretty good shape with AC, which is not what I thought prior to looking at the statistics.
10 comments:
Can we get Frazier for 2/$20MM? That would be good IMO, and tide us over to the arrival of Giminez.
Agreed.....that is another plus in TF'a column.....he won't need a long term deal, unlike MM.
Side note, I guess Reese and I are on a similar wavelength with our contributions this AM!
Plus no draft compensation pick for TF.
How would you feel about handing 2B to Wilmer Flores, 3B to Asdrubal Cabrera and using the money saved to go after more pitching in the rotation and/or the pen?
There are many different ways to "skin a cat", so to speak. I worry a bit about Wilmer and Asdrubal's defense and if you could upgrade both, then they would form a heck of a bench tandem.
But, if there is only so much money to go around, then I think that they could manage at 2B and 3B respectively.
Another starter would be nice.....it would also help the bullpen by pushing one of our existing starters into it.
Michael, I was not surprised by the revelation of Players A, B & C, since I had already done the same analysis - and reached the same conclusion, as I stated in the Todd v. Moose piece by Reese this morning. The problem is that it still leaves us without a leadoff hitter. I have a sneaky suspicion that Alderson may choose to make an offer to Nunez rather than Frazier.
If it is to be Frazier, I said this morning "Frazier wants to stay in NY. The Yankees would like him, but only on a 1 year deal, because they are going to make a big play for Machado next year. If Alderson offered Frazier 3 years/$30 million, with $8 mil payable in '18, you would see Todd in a Mets jersey at a Citifield press conference the next day." Nunez would be an even cheaper alternative. He would probably sign for 2 years/$15 million or so. His market seems to be heating up, so he might wind up costing a bit more.
Intriguing alternative......isn't he a bit shaky with the glove, especially when you compare him to TF? I want a leadoff hitter as well, but I don't know who that will be. A second baseman from outside the organization?
Mike, I prefer Frazier to Nunez too. The glove is the big difference, but offense is as well. Nunez hits better for average, but that doesn't translate to a better OBP, and he hits for less power, so all in all, Frazier is the better signing. But that leaves us with no good leadoff alternative.
I don't see anyone from outside the organization, except for Josh Harrison, and a trade with Pittsburgh seems less and less likely. To quote an old commercial, "What's a mother to do?"
Response to Reese Kaplan regarding Wilmer Flores on second base and A. Cabrera on third base and going after more starting pitching...The problems I see with this 2018 NYM current roster are the same exact ones as they had last season. Some of the utility role players cannot handle a full time position all season long, and it has been proven time and time again. They are not consistent nor good enough over a long stretch of time.
To expect a change with this status of some of these utility role players is not good thinking. Cabrera on the other hand is absolutely fine on third base as an everyday player. He lead the team in BA in 2017 and had 23 HR's in 2016. You can project him out for probably 22 HR/68 RBI/.282 BA in 2018 and that should be ample production from the 3B position. On the other hand, Todd Frazier is a waste of money, look at his stats the last two seasons to understand this. Plus, he's what 31/32 this season?
The position to add HR power to is actually the catcher spot. This is where a true HR hitting catcher added in with Plawecki would be ideal. D'arnaud is another of these backup role players now. It has been proven. I would not count on him for too much.
At starting pitching, same problem as positional players really. NYM expecting a different outcome then last two seasons with same exact injury prone starters. Perhaps a better idea would be trying to trade both Harvey and Matz. NYM have enough good right handed starting pitching for their 2018 rotation, but need at least one more from the left side especially with Matz moving on theoretically in this example only. Again, it is history that dictates the outcome here. How many times can a team go with the same plan.
My recent Red Sox trade idea makes some sense here. Something like maybe Matz, Smith, D'arnaud, and Gimenez for lefty starter Jalen Beeks, catcher Blake Swihart, lefty starter project Henry Owens, and 3B Michael Chavis (2019). Boston "might bite" because they know that David Price is injury prone now, and if Price were to go down early on 2018, they have virtually little chance of competing with the NYY. Matz gives them some coverage top-end left handed, at least for awhile.
Maybe move Harvey for something to re-stock the MiLB NYM with. Something like that. MiLB could use a HR outfield kid more, and lefty pitchers.
Anonymous, interesting perspectives. Whether some of our players remain too injury-prone or inadequate for daily play is something we are likely to find out - I do not expect radical trading from the Mets.
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