Reese Kaplan -- Giving Sandy Benefit of Doubt

Yesterday I gave Sandy Alderson a deserved hard time regarding his holistically poor approach to building a competitive ballclub.  Today I’d like to take the glass half-full position and look at what may be behind the strategy he’s taken to assembling the 2018 team that hopes to dethrone the Washington Nationals from atop the NL East.  If the familiar path is chosen once again, he will either add or subtract players in July.

First Base

Dom Smith certainly looked a bit overmatched in his extended first trial in the majors, finishing with a .198 batting average.  Ironically, that same struggle didn’t seem to mean anything when it was Jose Reyes and Curtis Granderson who had horrific long stretches to begin a season, but he felt it might be prudent to give Smith more time to hone his craft in the minors.  That’s not necessarily a bad thing for a 22 year old.  This time around he has backup solutions in Jay Bruce and Wilmer Flores should scrap heap pick Adrian Gonzalez suffer from ill health or diminished abilities.  It may also well be that after a few months in AAA Smith proves he’s ready to handle the rigors of day-to-day duty.

Second Base

Right now this position is a great unknown.  Allegedly both Jose Reyes and Wilmer Flores are slated to be utility players and not starters, so there may be another move up Sandy’s sleeve.  Also waiting in the wings is T.J. Rivera who has demonstrated a solid bat and room will have to be made for him to be a part of the 25 man roster once his arm is sufficiently healed to handle the rigors of major league play. 

Shortstop

While Amed Rosario did not make anyone forget Corey Seager or Carlos Correa, his performance in the minors and his raw athleticism make people more lenient and hopeful about him than they were about his AAA teammate who was promoted last year.  The club does have some depth here with Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera and even Wilmer Flores available to fill in should injury or sophomore slump demand a change at the position. 

Third Base

Very few people argued about Asdrubal Cabrera’s offensive potential, and the ongoing uncertainty about David Wright made picking up his option a relatively sure thing.  Cabrera’s defense is not what it once was, and he’s missed quite a few games with assorted minor injuries since coming to the Mets.   While he’s not likely to provide David Wright level of production with his bat, he’s above league average.  Lately Cabrera has voiced the opinion he’d now actually prefer playing second base which could be a good thing if it means one of the free agent third baseman is preferable to the free agent second basemen still on the market, or it could be a distraction if the club truly wants to improve its defense up the middle. 

Catcher

I’m one of the very few who is taking a “leave well enough alone” stance regarding the catching position.  The aggregate numbers from the four-headed catching last year were in the top five in the game.  Yes, Travis d’Arnaud could be a better defensive catcher with a better throwing arm and Kevin Plawecki could ideally generate more power.  However, the tandem should be fine. 

Outfield

If Yoenis Cespedes is healthy, everyone knows what he is capable of doing.  The return of Jay Bruce ensures another solid middle-of-the-order bat to help score some runs.  Centerfield is a bit of a challenge until Michael Conforto returns to play out of position.  Now he didn’t embarrass himself in Todd Hundley fashion playing the outfield, but he’s no Juan Lagares out there either.  Unfortunately Juan Lagares has not yet established a consistent offensive side to his game to accompany his awesome arm and golden glove.  Brandon Nimmo is the interesting wildcard in this equation.  A lot has been written about his patience at the plate and apparently other clubs have noticed his potential.  It should shape up to be an interesting battle in spring training to see which of the two healthy options gets the lion’s share of play in centerfield until Conforto can swing the bat again. 

Starting Pitching

It’s no accident that the man hired to replace Terry Collins was known as a pitching whisperer.  Alderson knows that the Mets need to score enough runs to win games if their staff can perform to their potential and hold the opponents to 4 or fewer runs per game.   Even more than the injuries to Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto, it was the failures of the pitching staff due to injuries that led to the dismal record in 2017.  Here, however, it’s a little more difficult to cut Alderson some slack because his plan is to rub a lucky rabbit’s foot that Jacob deGrom will remain healthy, and Steve Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler will somehow manage to stay healthy all year.  Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman both had some injury issues as well, and Rafael Montero was simply ineffective.  Most fans would be much happier if Sandy can land a bonafide and healthy starting pitcher to join the Fab Five who have yet to make a full turn through the rotation.  Yes, it would be a great things for all of the planned starters to be both healthy and effective, but having the foresight to anticipate injuries and perhaps render one of the five starters available in high leverage relief situations would help win ballgames.

Bullpen

According to reports Mickey Callaway is considering a different approach to the back end of ballgames by not designating a traditional closer and instead using the most effective arm in any given situation.  Towards that end the top four relievers – Jeurys Familia, AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins and Anthony Swarzak – are a very good start.  The remaining 4 slots (assuming an 8-man bullpen) will be decided in spring training. 

Important Dates

When the season starts, the club as it’s currently constituted will only have four traditional outfielders.  Michael Conforto will likely be on the disabled list which means a versatile player like Jose Reyes will be the emergency fifth outfielder.  When Michael Conforto returns, an important roster decision will have to be made.  Do they go with the traditional five-outfielder roster configuration?  If so, who gets dropped?  Will it be the 8^th reliever?  Will it be someone on a short leash like Adrian Gonzalez who gets a month or so to show what he’s still capable of doing?

The next major decision will come when T.J. Rivera is again ready to join the team.  Who would go in that case?  Assuming there is one more infielder to come, it’s not likely going to be Reyes, Flores, Cabrera or that hypothetical ballplayer.

The third player to watch is Dom Smith.  If, through the first month or so of the AAA season, he’s tearing the cover off the ball, what do they do?  The investment in Adrian Gonzalez is minimal and he represents a bridge to the future which may occur sooner than anticipated.  (What that would mean for Pete Alonso is another matter entirely). 

For all of the frustration (and outright hostility) fans feel about how little Alderson has done to improve the club, he still has the chance to change people’s minds between now and opening day by addressing the need for another infielder, perhaps another veteran bullpen arm like Tony Watson, and perhaps a solid starter.  All we can do is wait and see.