I was casually perusing the internet and I came across an article about the Mets’ roster and an interesting name was brought up as a possible addition; Jonathan Lucroy. JL is a catcher as most of you know and you likely remember his name mentioned as a possible trade target during the two year playoff run the Mets made in 2015 and 2016. At the time, he was a valuable asset for the Milwaukee Brewers and the cost to obtain his services was considered “too high” for the Mets front office (a common theme).
Eventually, JL was traded away, but the transaction did not occur until the following year (08-01-16) when he was dealt to the Texas Rangers. He was subsequently flipped to the Colorado a year later (07-30-17) where he completed the last year of his contract as a member of the Rockies. JL subsequently became a free agent at the end of the 2017 season. Fast forward to today and JL is patiently waiting for an acceptable offer, much like 90% of the free agent market.
Backing up a step, I think it is a fair statement that the catcher’s position for the Mets has been a "black hole", ever since Mike Piazza left as a free agent at the end of the 2005 season. Without listing all of the different players that the Mets have employed since then, I think it is useful to focus on the current tandem that will be tasked with filling the position in 2018. Short of an unexpected transaction, Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki appear to be partners in a pseudo-platoon (which is odd since both are right handed).
TDA will be 29 years old during the upcoming season and KP will be 27 years old, so neither of them should be looked at as “prospects” anymore. Plus, at that age, they are likely as “developed” as they are going to get, despite catchers having a reputation for being “late bloomers”. Looking further, here are their respective statistical breakdowns;
TDA KP
5 seasons (1453 PA) 3 seasons (527 PA)
.245/.306/.406 (.712 OPS) .222/.304/.310 (.614 OPS)
***If you use 450 plate appearances as a “full time season” for a catcher, then TDA has approximately 3.23 seasons under his belt and KP has approximately 1.17 seasons under his. I used these numbers to divide the “counting stats” into the following “averages”;
14 HR/49 RBI/0 SB/46 R 6 HR/38 RBI/0 SB/30 R
0.62 WAR 1.18 WAR
0.995 FLD% with 5 errors 0.996 FLD% with 4 errors
22% caught stealing rate 23% caught stealing rate
$3,450,000 salary for 2018 $550,000 salary for 2018 (estimated)
The first thing that caught my eye was how much time TDA has missed due to injury. He has averaged 290 plate appearances over his five years in MLB, which is approximately 65% of our previously listed benchmark of 450 plate appearances for a “full season”. That, plus his erratic production makes him a permanent question mark moving forward, despite his late season surge in 2017. He is also becoming a high priced asset when you consider his production and the fact that he is on a team that is budget conscious.
KP has taken a while to get to the major leagues, but he did show some promise towards the end of last season. It may be a similar mirage when compared to TDA’s season, but at least KP is a couple years younger and a whole lot cheaper. I would be okay with him as our backup catcher moving forward, especially at his current price tag.
Circling back to Jonathan Lucroy, here are his statistics for an “apples to apples” comparison;
JL
8 seasons (3786 PA)
.281/.343/.433 (.776 OPS)
***Since he has averaged 473 plate appearances per season, we can use 8 for computing his “averages"
12 HR/38 RBI/3 SB/51 R
2.53 WAR
0.993 FLD% with 6 errors
28% caught stealing rate
Free Agent (made $5,250,000 in 2017)
The first thing I noticed about JL is that he is the opposite of TDA when it comes to reliability. He has averaged a full season of playing time over the course of his entire career. He was actually “ridden like a mule” by the Brewers in the 2013, 2014 and 2016 seasons when he averaged 147 games played for the three listed years and 593 plate appearances! I suppose Milwaukee was making sure that they got their money’s worth.
In addition to having some mileage on his body, JL will also play the 2018 season as a 32 year old. Wearing the “tools of ignorance” is tough enough, never mind doing so as you wander into your 30’s. However, during the 2017 season, JL appeared in 123 games and 483 plate appearances for the Rangers and Rockies, so it’s not like he is ready for a retirement home. Hell, he is an "iron man" compared to the fragile TDA and his spotty record up to this point.
All of these statistics bring me to my point about the catching position. IF we could secure JL’s services over the course of two or three seasons, would he be worth the investment? Would bringing JL on board in place of TDA be enough of an upgrade to justify the move?
I know it comes down to money, but you have to wonder if he is still waiting for an offer in a few weeks, would he take something close to, or less then what TDA is supposed to earn this year ($3,450,000)? If so, you could possibly sign him for roughly 3 years at 3 million dollars per year (9 million dollars total) and secure a significant upgrade behind the plate both offensively and defensively.
If Sandy was shrewd enough, maybe he could even deal TDA in conjunction with another valuable piece in a trade for a different position and let someone else wait for him to “finally” blossom into an All Star.
I think JL would be a lock to make at least as many appearances as he did last season, which would leave roughly 40 games for KP to serve as his back up and to continue to learn on the job from a savvy veteran.
I know the Mets are on a budget or sorts, but I think JL is an intriguing option and one that may be hard to pass up.
9 comments:
Unfortunately for the very same reasons you suggest parting ways with TDA the other GMs would likely react that way. $3.45 million is a lot of cabbage for someone who has not yet realized his full potential and is closing in on 30 next year.
The second issue I have is the hypothetical value of Lucroy. Granted, he's coming off his worst year ever and with the seeming collusion not to offer FA contracts, his price might come down but I don't think quite that far. You might nab him for $9 million for 2 years at $4.5 per year.
Frankly, TDA had his best offensive showing in some time last year and after coming back from his early season injury was pretty steady. Catchers who hit 14/59 in less than full time duty are few and far between.
Given the limited dollars available to spend I'm willing to gamble on the two options in-house. Of course, that presumes those dollars would be put into the roster and not towards the private jet or yacht of the Wilpon family. How silly I am!
I agree with you on the price......I was hoping for a net "wash" if we obtain JL and somehow deal TDA (which will admittedly be tough, hence the package strategy).
I am NOT confident that TDA will produce in 2018, but I hope that I am wrong.
I am with Reese on this one. Our catchers last year (d'Arnaud, Rivera, Plawecki and Nido) combined to hit Average .258, Homeruns 29, and RBI's 101. Hard to get much better production that that. Lucroy is project to hit .268 14 56 this year, d'Arnaud .249 15 52, not much difference. Plus at this stage of their careers, Travis plays better defense and is three years younger. Lucroy looks like this years Matt Wieters, as catchers usually age quicker. Just my two cents.
would be interesting what the salaries for the starting catchers in the ML would be...
I think Lucroy at about 7 Mil a year would be a steal... But I think he thinks of himself as a 10 mil plus player...
Travis surged in late 2017, and some of the career injuries were weird/fluky, so while I am not thrilled with the tandem of Travis and K Plaw, we probably could do a lot worse. Maybe Travis takes it to another level in 2018, and Plawecki, too. In 2019, maybe Nido and Mazeika, or both, will be ready - and far cheaper than d'Arnaud.
Regardless of their individual numbers, once Travis and KP became a tandem we got very good production from them. Maybe more rest for each lifted the results.
Though they are considered a "platoon", despite both hitting righty, I consider it more of a tandem, as well as a friendly competition for playing time.
With Nido possibly a year away, and Mazeika right behind him, let the current pair co-exist unless it becomes clear that it's not working. Giving 3 years to a 32 y.o. is not a wise way to use the budget.
I'm not going to waste a rare opportunity to agree with Reese, either. 😈
Are we taking a vote here?
If so, stick with the 2-headed monster and light a candle that Mazeika is for real.
Fair enough.......JL will end up signing for less then he probably wants, but it would only be worthwhile if they could deal TDA in the process. I would take a full season of our current tandem IF they stay healthy and come close to producing like they did at the end of 2017.
Lots of ifs........fingers crossed for better luck in 2018.
On the NYM catcher position conversation...
It is almost a "Catch-22" type situation in that a few things are in the way of getting another Piazza or Carter type star catcher in here that we got so spoiled by.
With the potential of having four or even five rookie positional players in the 2018 lineup, the NYM need the rest of their lineup to be veteran tested and battle ready. This would be the balance for the 2018 season offensively. At current, only Cespedes and Cabrera are onboard for such a starting role. Certainly a good veteran catcher addition would make a lot of sense here, even if only to team up in a platoon with Plawecki. But outside of JT Realmuto (who may not be on Miami's trade block at current) there really isn't anyone available veteran-wise in this MLB's catcher position draught decade. The correct answer here is there are no Gary Carter or Mike Piazza's out there to get. So Go Fish!
Some will want Jonathan LuCroy and maybe another thirty-year-old catcher flavor of the week, but clearly most have turned the corner on their respective careers, are overpriced at this juncture of their careers.
TDA and his brother Chase (for that matter here too) do not seem able to achieve their maximum batting ability on any consistent level. Sometimes TDA looks tremendous batting, but usually that does not last very long. I do not know why.
The only thing that I could come up with really, is a trade involving TDA for another team's young lefty or switch hitting catcher to team up with Plawecki in a 2018 platoon. MY idea was Boston's Blake Swihart, a switch hitting catcher with decent MiLB stats behind him displaying some power stroke game. Blake is interesting, is 25 years old, and being discussed by Boston for making the 25-man as a backup catcher. His ability to hit well has not been fully realized yet with Boston. But I like this idea, he and Kevin in a platoon.
Now if only this was 2005 again (Ground Hogs Day/Bill Murray style) because Mike Jacobs in this platoon role with Kevin would be awesome. Say, where is Mike these days?
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