One of the recent trends for playoff bound teams has been to
create a shutdown bullpen where you have any number of weapons as your disposal
when it gets to crunch time once the starting pitcher comes out of the
game. We saw the Yankees and other teams
employ his approach.
According to Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland, the new
pitching braintrust, the possibility exists that the Mets may not employ the
traditional fixed roles for the 7th, 8th and 9th
innings. Whether this conjecture comes
to fruition or not, the fact remains that there are people who question the
depth and quality of the players the Mets currently have at their disposal for
the bullpen.
If the season started this week and nothing changed in the
manner in which relief pitchers are used, then you would most certainly expect
Jeurys Familia to be the closer. While
he was prone to the occasional antacid moments during his two years in that
role, it’s hard to argue with success.
In 2015 he led the World Series bound team with 43 saves and a 1.85 ERA,
then followed it up with a record setting 51 saves and 2.55 ERA in 2016. Last
year’s off-the-field problem that led to a suspension in the beginning of the
year and then the subsequent arterial blood clot that cost him most of the rest
of the lost 2017 season.
The person most likely to challenge Familia should health
issues deter him from reclaiming his role as closer is AJ Ramos who served as a
closer for the Miami Marlins for several years.
He has a 40-save season on his resume as well and for his career trails
Familia 106-99 in saves. His lackluster
debut with the Mets last season notwithstanding, he still owns a career ERA of
2.88 which compares favorably to Familia’s mark of 2.99. Ramos’ problem has always been control. He’s a high strikeout guy with as many as
12.5 per 9 IP, but he’s also unfortunately walked as many as 6 per 9 IP over
the course of a full season. Still, his
career record is pretty impressive despite putting issuing a large number of
free passes.
Your primary left handed setup guy is once again Jerry Blevins who has been pretty automatic since putting on a Mets uniform. Since coming to the club in 2015 he has appeared in 155 games, struck out over 11 per 9 IP, sports a record of 11-2 and an ERA of 2.72. He’s been rock steady and hopefully won’t suffer from overuse.
The wildcard in the bunch is the gamble Sandy Alderson made based upon one dramatically better year by Anthony Swarzak. For his career, he sports a rather pedestrian 4.22 ERA with just over 6 Ks per 9 IP. However, last year was either a breakthrough or an outlier. In 2017 for both the White Sox and Brewers he went a combined 6-4 with a 2.33 ERA, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP and a WHIP around 1.000. The Mets are hoping something “clicked” and he can repeat that success for them in Queens.
After that the bullpen picture gets a bit murkier. Frontrunners Paul Sewald, Hansel Robles and
Josh Smoker finished the year with ERAs that ranged from 4.55 to 5.11. Given how badly Sewald was overused and the
arm woes of Smoker, there’s some hope for improvement. In Robles’ case, they’re banking on him
recapturing his form from his first two years where he was 10-7 with a 3.55 ERA
and 10 Ks per 9 IP.
After that come guys with very limited track records in the
bullpen. You have newcomers Jacob Rhame
and Jamie Callahan, both hard throwers, but there’s potential there. Callahan’s numbers in the minors at first
glance are pretty mediocre – 4.71 career ERA and a 1.464 WHIP. However, since being converted from starter
to reliever everything improved – his strikeouts, his control and his ERA. Rhame was always a reliever and his 10-19
career minor league record doesn’t stand out, but his resume shows an ERA over
5 years in professional ball of just 3.07 (which included stints for the
Dodgers and Mets in the notoriously pitching hostile environment of the Pacific
Coast League).
Then you have the emergency starters who may get shuffled to
the pen – Rafael Montero, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman fall into this category. Since both Lugo and Gsellman have options
they may be sent to AAA to continue to work as starters in case the need arises
due to injuries on the big club. As bad
as he’s been, Rafael Montero may have the inside track to a spot in the pen
simply because he is out of options and the Mets have allowed many other
pitchers go while still holding onto the enigmatic righthander.
Now on the surface the bullpen starts out strongly with the
first three pitchers, then you have the Swarzak wildcard, but then it starts to
seem a little shaky based upon recent history.
Some would say the Mets erred in not pursuing Addison Reed or another
similar experience pitcher (Tony Watson, for example) to help fortify the pen. That may or may not be true, but you can take
some solace in the fact that a great many pitchers who wore a Mets uniform in
2017 will not be doing so again this year, including Fernando Salas, Adam Wilk,
Tommy Milone, Neil Ramirez, Tyler Pill, Erik Goeddel, Sean Gilmartin, Chasen
Bradford and Josh Edgin. Chris Flexen
will likely be starting in Las Vegas and Kevin McGowan will be in the pen down
there, too.
Then again, when all else fails, Kevin Plawecki is
available. His season ERA of 12.00
actually bests Gilmartin and Wilk. J
9 comments:
We are now Smoker-free. Somewhere, Renault and Common are smiling.
Sewald is better than his ERA, which went from high 3s to mid 4s over the last 4-5 weeks.
One more top flight pen arm would lead to mess Pepto Bismol usage, but more likely, they will want to promote from within.
Conlon, not Common...hopefully Conlon will be uncommon.
Whatever happened to the infatuation with "live arms"? Wasn't that the rationale for picking up the relief pitchers they did despite less than eye-popping numbers?
On the other hand, with Jose Reyes back wouldn't it have been more prudent to have cut ties with Matt Reynolds (or even Gavin Cecchini)?
Cecchini gets one more chance in the minors, I'd say. Reynolds, yeah, I'd have kept Smoker instead. My guess is, even if Ricco is calling the shots, he conferred with Calloway and probably the pitching coach on this one (I sure hope he did). After watching John Franco for years, velocity isn't everything - maybe they see more quality in Regnault and Conlon.
Common is a great actor.
And singer.
Does he play second?
I want another lefty option, at a minimum. There has to be another move coming because the roster, including the pen, is out of balance right now.
Regnault was 7-0 last year, pitching very well for a terrible Vegas pitching squad. Why not him?
Smoker mostly stunk in AAA stints.
I have a feeling that Alderson thinks he has enough talent to fill out the pen internally. After the four stalwarts, we have Sewald, Robles, Montero, Conlon, Regnault, Callahan, Rhame, & Drew Smith. If 3 good arms don't emerge during spring training from among those 8 guys, I'll eat my hat. (It's hard to pick. They are all pretty talented.)
Herb. I agree...hopefully enough talent in those 8 to come up with 3 good ones
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