Reese Kaplan -- Finding What We Have in Nimmo

It’s January 6^th and thus far I’ve maintained my glass half-full approach to considering what the Mets have.  While most of us would do cartwheels if the team actually acquired some major league hitting talent (not to mention healthy starting pitching and another veteran relief arm), let’s deal with the reality of what there is.  Towards that end, let’s consider what we have in former first round pick Brandon Nimmo.

I will tell you that his beaming smile and infectious enthusiasm about being in the majors contrasts sharply with the sour-faced, non-communicative person I met in El Paso when he was visiting the hometown Chihuahuas.  He was almost a pariah, not interacting with any of the other players, warming up on his own, staying off by himself during the pre-game rituals.  It was therefore surprising to see the positivity he seemed to bring when he got to Queens.

As a minor leaguer he didn’t really seem to put it all together until an extended run in AAA in 2016 when he finished with a .352/11/62 output with an impressive .423 OBP and an OPS of .964 in just under 400 ABs.  If you factor in the PCL effect on hitters and pitchers then you have to scale back those expectations a bit.

Fast forward to 2017 in the majors and he held his own.  He had a multi-homer game (which was surprising since power is not one of his great attributes), and continued to get on base at an impressive clip.  What is concerning, however, is a dramatic jump in strikeouts – 60 in just 177 ABs.  That’s a Nieuwenhuisian pace. 

So what do the Mets really have here with Nimmo?  Assuming he relaxes a bit and plays to his selectivity a bit better, what can they realistically expect?  Remember that he did not play organized high school baseball in Wyoming, so his development is a bit delayed.  Consequently, it’s possible he will become something of a late bloomer.

If you extrapolate the numbers he should be on pace (with some slight improvement) towards .280/15/70.  Another young outfielder whose parallel I drew a year or so ago started off his first full time season with a .280/9/54 and followed that up with a sophomore campaign of .300/7/44.   In his third season he made a quantum leap to deliver .298/21/98 which resulted in a buyout of his next few years.  He rewarded his team with a fourth full year of .282/18/81, down a bit but still showing that the 3^rd year was far from a fluke.  So is Brandon Nimmo a Christian Yelich type or is he merely going to be a 4^th outfielder/fringe starter? 

Some early scouting reports were guardedly optimistic. SBnation said:

“Those long limbs and the prospect of filling out that frame could mean that power is on its way. He should be able to leverage the ball for power to all fields, and when he extends completely, he has substantial power to the opposite field. This will especially be true once he gets his swing working well. Right now, Nimmo has the skeleton of a very good swing. He has tremendous hand-eye coordination that allows him to square up well on the ball, and the barrel of his bat spends a long time in the strike zone. He's very short to the ball and has a high finish, but he's overly reliant on his hands—which are very strong—to push the ball where he wants it to go. He'll usually rotate his hips, but he has a tendency to do so too early, before he's even balanced his weight properly. A strong rotational swing will have the arms, hips, and legs all working in concert. Nimmo has the parts working, for the most part, but it will take time to get them to work together. Until that happens, and until he actually adds the muscle we anticipate, the power will remain a projection and nothing more.”

Baseball Digest was similarly cautious in praising the young outfielder:

“Nimmo has plus hitting potential, but being as his experience is limited, as is the video, it’s difficult, if not impossible to label him. Pro scouts are positive about his hit tool, with some saying his “polish with the bat” to be almost as impressive as his speed. During his MVP performance last summer in the Under Armour game, he doubled down the left field line and singled through shortstop for his two hits, so he’s not afraid to use the opposite field and is comfortable with his hitting style and approach.

While not quite as difficult to project as the overall hit tool because not everyone HAS power, it still can be a tricky one to figure out at times. It is also the one tool which causes the most disagreement among scouts...Where does Nimmo profile power wise? It’s impossible to say, although no one thought Ike Davis would be a 20 homer guy when he was drafted either, and that’s including playing half the time in Citi Field.”

The good news with the Mets collective inertia based upon philosophy, payroll and injuries is that all signs point toward Nimmo having the opportunity to play every day and let the Mets know what they really have.