More or Less? (Conclusion)

If you read all six of the previous installments of this series, you should be aware by now that the inspiration for this series of articles came from watching the game show "The Price is Right".  While that may seem a bit strange, a couple of the games within the show ("Now or Then" and "More or Less") made the contestants guess whether a displayed price was above or below the actual value of the same.

Translating that to a baseball team, you can use the "average" statistics for a given player as your "displayed price" and then guess if their production for the coming season will be above that threshold, or below the listed standard.

Hopefully with a few exceptions between now and the middle of February, the Mets overall roster is largely complete.  It also contains certain players who will be much more influential (positive or negative) on the team’s performance then other members of the roster.  In a previous article, I used the term “foundation pieces” to describe these players as they will likely be the reason that the team wins or fails to do so.  

We can argue about who the "foundation pieces" are, but in my opinion there are six that were selected for the series;  Yoenis Cespedes, Jacob DeGrom, Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard, Jay Bruce and Jeurys Familia.  Yes, there are other players on the roster who will have an impact and some may even develop in a future "foundation piece" (like Amed Rosario).  However, if any of the six listed players goes down for an extended period, or they fail to produce as expected then our chances for the 2018 campaign would be severely compromised.

So, for a final tally on our votes, here is the list for your reference;

***Yoenis Cespedes - MORE

Jacob DeGrom - MORE

***Michael Conforto - LESS

***Noah Syndergaard - MORE

Jay Bruce - MORE

***Jeurys Familia - MORE

Interestingly enough, five of the six players were voted to exceed their career statistical averages during the 2018 season.  Granted, four of the six players (designated by asterisks) missed a substantial amount of time last year, so a simple return to health ought to result in better performance.  Another way of looking at this phenomenon is to view the four players as ADDITIONS to the roster when compared to the 2017 version that only won 70 games.  

If you take a random 70 win team and add a healthy and productive Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard and Jeurys Familia to the roster, your fan base would be ecstatic.   Hell, your GM would be lauded as a genius and your outlook would include a return to relevance and a possible trip to the playoffs.  I know we had the players on our roster already, but getting them back for a full season will have a HUGE impact on the team.  

I actually considered putting a seventh "position" within this series but changed my mind because it would have been hard to develop a "baseline performance" for comparison purposes.  The switch from Terry Collins to Mickey Callaway has the potential to impact the roster in a similar fashion as any of the aforementioned "foundation pieces".  Granted, Terry has a "not so stellar" track record (hello Reese), but Mickey does not have anything to draw upon as the guy in charge.   So, our guesses on whether the manager's position will have MORE or LESS impact then last year is based purely on personal opinion.   In my case, I would vote MORE, since one of the main issues last year (before and after the spate of injuries) was with the day to day management of the roster, to include the bullpen. 

Having an analytical, pitching centric manager (aka "The Pitching Whisperer") that specializes in taking care of his pitchers will have a positive impact on the Mets' roster.  I view that change as the most influential "factor" for the upcoming season.

In conclusion, the Mets' chances in 2018 are largely tied to the health and performance of their "foundation pieces".  If the voters on this blog are an accurate barometer of what will occur, then I think the Mets are in line for a rebound season and they should be in contention for a wild card berth when all is said and done.