If you read the first two installments of this series, I mentioned my preoccupation with the game show "The Price is Right" and how a couple of the games reminded me of the Mets roster and their chances in 2018.
For example, do you remember the game “Now or Then” where the contestants had to guess if a random grocery item’s displayed price was current or from the past? Or, the game “More or Less” where the players were shown an item and a corresponding price that may or may not be correct. The player had to guess if the displayed price was more or less then the real price that was concealed behind the visible price. These two games gave me an idea for a series of articles about our favorite team as we clear the holidays and head towards Spring Training.
The
overall roster is largely complete, whether we like it or not. It also
contains certain players who will be much more influential (positive or
negative) on the team’s performance then other members of the roster.
In a previous article, I used the term “foundation pieces” to describe
these players as they will likely be the reason that the team wins or
fails to do so. I will select a different player for each article and
it will include their “career” statistical average(s).
Once
we have an average performance documented, we will play “more or less”
using their career baseline as the "displayed price" (keep in mind that
some players have more statistical data then others, so in cases where
the major league data is lacking, I used their minor league numbers to
produce a baseline). In short, if our key players mostly produce “more”
then expected, it will likely manifest itself into a successful season
and possibly a return to the playoffs.
The first two articles covered Yoenis Cespedes (voted MORE) and Jacob DeGrom (voted MORE). The third player we will look at is arguably our best all around hitter, when healthy; Michael Conforto
In addition to a really cool first name, MC
has a ton of potential that was on full display for a portion of last
year, prior to his shoulder injury putting an end to things. So far, MC
has been on the Mets' roster for parts of three
seasons (2015, 2016 and 2017), playing in a total of 274 out of a
possible 486 games. For those of you that are not math wizards, that
works out to roughly 56%, which is a bit below what you would want and/or expect from one of your best players.
Granted,
he was a rookie in 2015, so his player time that year was
understandable. Plus, he also had to deal with "Grumpy" as his former
manager who seemed to prefer other players, not to
mention the aforementioned shoulder injury. Add that up and you start
to understand why his "games played percentage" is so low. However,
when you are projecting a lineup for the upcoming season, MC simply HAS to be more dependable if the team is to be successful.
***I
am aware of the fact that is his still rehabilitating from his shoulder
surgery. There are conflicting reports on exactly how he is doing and
when he will be available for the coming season.
Some reports indicate that MC should be good to go for Spring Training,
while others are less optimistic, using May or June as a more realistic
start date (I am hopeful that he will be ready to play RF and bat third in the lineup from the get go).
For example, here is his 162 game average so far (small sample size alert);
.256/.348/.495 (BA/OBP/SLG) or an OPS of .843
48 HR - 136 RBI - 4 SB - 140 R
6.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement Level)
Clearly,
those are eye popping statistics that are MVP type numbers. I don't
see MC producing at this level over the course of a full season since
the stats are inflated by his excellent productivity in a relatively small sample size. However, it does show that he is capable of producing at an elite level when he does play.
OK, so how do we estimate a realistic statistical production?
Much
like our previous entrant, Yoenis Cespedes, I would be happy if we
could get MC up to an appearance rate of 87% or approximately 142 games
started over the course of a full season. If you use that figure and adjust his aforementioned averages, you would arrive at a statistical line of;
41 HR - 118 RBI - 3 SB - 121 R
.256/.348/.495 (BA/OBP/SLG) or an OPS of .826
5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement Level)
So, do you think MC produces more or less then the listed offensive statistics and why?
8 comments:
Maybw a little less but still well worth the draft pick.
Sadly....I will say less due to the fact that this shoulder surgery will likely sap some of his power.
I do still believe that
.260 AVG/.340 OBP/.450 SLG, 30 HR, 90 RBI, 90 Runs is attainable.
I agree with both of you.......IF his shoulder is sound and IF he gets enough at bats, he will be our best player. He was a monster last year before the injury!
Chris is probably on the mark about his power, but I don't feel it will negatively impact his batting average and expect him to approach .280 in that regard.
Not sure where you got those per 162 stats.
His 48 HR are over 274G (28 per 162) and ditto the 136 RBI (80 per 162)
I think he'll be right around that target...heck I'll give him a 30/90 and an over.
I am with Hobie on it looking like Conforto is over-projected - this site projects much lower #'s:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/confomi01.shtml
Of course, they show career average projections - if he ended last year healthy, he might get close to those #s, but coming off his shoulder thingy, he'd make almost everyone really happy if he hit 30 homers in 2018.
I hope for 140 starts, .275/30/85
The 162 average is based on his numbers to date (a rate per game if you will) , then it is extrapolated across 162 games, which few players actually reach. It is definitely inflated due to the sample size.
I like Chris’ numbers as a good average season.......if so, I’d vote MORE
that injury was a real shame but a typical Mets result... At the time of the injury it was arguable who was having a better season, Judge or Conforto... that comparison alone tell you how good conforto was... We NEED him back and healthy... we have no one that can replace him...
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