Let me take you all the way back to August 4th of this season. At the time the Mets were sporting a record of 66-38, good for a .635 winning percentage and 3.5 games ahead of the pesky Atlanta Braves. Then came the 5 game series against them when the Mets went on to win 4 of the 5 games played. In between was a Cincinnati Reds series the Mets swept and a 2 out of 3 margin against the Philadelphia Phillies. Not bad, huh?
Then on August 15th the series that just concluded in Atlanta began. At the time going into the series the Mets were up to a record of 75-40 with a .652 winning percentage and a 5.5 game lead over the Braves. Looking good, huh?
Well, we all saw what happened in Truist Park. The Mets went into a 4-game series against their second place rivals and promptly dropped 3 out of those 4 games. From the 16th through the 19th it was the polar opposite of what happened at Citifield with the Braves thrashing the Mets 15-1 in the opening game (in which Darren Ruf was called upon to throw 2 innings of scoreless relief and Carlos Carrasco exited early in pain landing him on the IL).
Now look at the standings. It's earth shattering. The Mets now stand at a feeble 76-43, a mere .639 winning percentage and the last time I looked they were 3.5 games ahead of the Braves. Now go back and read paragraph number one again. At that time the Mets held a .635 winning percentage and a 3.5 lead over the Braves.
Guess what? The sky is not falling. We're exactly where we were before these two big series happened. We're no further ahead and the Braves made up zero ground in their pursuit of first place.
Would it have been nice to go and win 3 out of 4 in their home ballpark to extend the gap in the standings even further? Yes, of course it would. However, the season isn't the size of a series unless it's a one-game playoff at year's end. Bear in mind that the Mets in the past week have lost two starting pitchers and two infielders to injury. Having not lost any ground is more than a moral victory. It is a good thing.
So let me offer some sound words of advice. Climb back in off the ledge. Remove the noose you flung over your highest beam. Unload and holster all your weapons. When it comes to the Mets and drinking heavily, I advocate doing so in celebration, not commiseration. Though normally a devout pessimist, I already have a favorite bottle of Armagnac prepared to be opened in October (unless the pennant happens sooner!)
10 comments:
Trust me readers. Reese is right here.
Fandom is not life.
And life is too short.
Trust what I sat here.
Reese, I am off the ledge and plan to stay there. My formula? They play poorly, I change the channel and check back in. Some would say that's disloyal. Nope, that's just me. I don't like watching something that makes me unhappy. So, those 2 games that the Mets lost to the Mets 18-1? I looked at the score on line occasionally and did something else.
Yankee fans, though, must be on the ledge. For about 90 games, they seemed like they'd break the all time win record. Now they are in full blown collapse. And, no rest for the weary. They face Scherzer and deGrom in the 2 game series early next week, at a time their hitting went from Thunder to Whimper.
To me, two losses that combine to 18-1are a softer blow than two that would combine to 2-0.
More pain -
Both runs scored in the bottom of 10th by that designated hater.
Don't mention thunder. That's the forecast for Monday/Tuesday. 🥶
I don't have Twitter -- so I'm not informed by that small sub-culture of fan, which I do not believe is representative of the whole.
I mean to say: Amidst what I read, and the people I know, I am not seeing people freaking out. Near a ledge. Any of that.
Maybe it's happening. But that would be a pretty dumb reaction to the situation.
Very glad for Friday night's win. Hoping that today goes well.
Jimmy
You don't need Twitter to see all that. Check any of the Mets fans sites at Facebook and elsewhere.
Jimmy, on the Facebook fan sites, there is a lot of panic. The Mets will undoubtedly make the playoffs, and if the Braves are not a .720 team over the last 100 games of the season, the Mets should win the division. All good.
Should we start calling our injured 3B EscoPipp?
Got to say Baty looks like the real thing. If not for injuries, he would still be toiling in the minors. Sometimes good things happen when you least expect it.
I go back to what I saw once and believe is true:
Break the 162 game season into 3 equal parts of 54. Every team will win 54 games and lose 54 games. It's how well the other 54 games are played which makes the final difference in the standings.
And in the 54 games that every team will lose, break them down into three equal parts of 18 games. They'll get their ass kicked in 18 of them (lose by at least 5 runs), 18 of them will be 'normal' 6-4 or 4-1 type games, and the other 18 will be the one run types of Thursday.
Of that middle block of 54 games that are up for grabs, the very good teams will win between 46 and 54 of them: 46 will get them a 100-62 record.
So with their current 43 losses, they still have 11 games to lose out of their last 42, and to have a very good year (get to that 100 win season), they can play almost .500 ball and go 23-19. Here's saying that I don't see that happening. I am guessing they will end up with 104 or 105 wins. 108 would be going 31-11 the rest of the way in. That may actually be doable with their soft September schedule.
This is a very good team, even if our centerfielder doesn't have a cannon for an arm. (FB complaint reference)
Nice come back last night after what had to be a long flight home from Atlanta but we have the General in the dugout and he keeps them on an even keel and every man has totally bought into the system. I know I have to remain calm when it comes to Baty but call me impressed with the young man all around and how refreshing for the club in general to get a boost like he's given them. Now I don't do twitter or facebook and record all the games so I simply fast forward through breaks and bad games as to me FF is the greatest thing since sliced bread it's also great given that I'm also a Jet AND Giant fan so fast forward on the remote has saved me from being institutionalized (hey do I get points for the big word?) given there collective performances the last 5 years. Mack and Tom it's been VERY quiet on the Alvarez front lately do you guys have any updates on him?
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