Reese Kaplan -- Syracuse's Roster Gets Weak in a Big Hurry

While recently we looked at the difficult decision making the front office must undertake regarding extending free agent contracts vs. letting folks sell their services to a competitor and use the contractual salary obligation to pay for someone else.  Truly Billy Eppler and company will earn their significant salaries figuring out which players are critical to winning and should not walk away while also concluding who is not worth the dollars or health risk to place money at risk with a long term commitment.  Remember, they're still paying Bobby Bonilla to this day!

Looking down at AAA to see who might be ready to take that next step, the poster child is most certainly Mark Vientos.  While he's been shuffled around the field a bit trying to figure out his best path to the majors (while hiding a less than stellar defensive game), there's no question the bat is banging loudly and suggesting his time has come.  

In 277 ABs (about a half season's worth of effort), Vientos has clubbed 19 HRs and driven in 54 while hitting a respectable .267.  He is striking out a bit too much and not drawing enough walks, but it would appear that the 6'4" right handed slugger who turns 23 in December is ready to see how he fares against the next level pitching.  

As much as people are advocating that the Mets solve two problems by promoting catcher Francisco Alvarez to address the weak effort the club has gotten from the trio of James McCann, Tomas Nido and Patrick Mazeika, the fact is that his defensive game has not caught up to how well he swings the bat.  

His early AAA returns are certainly exciting.  In 68 ABs he already has hit 5 HRs and driven in 16.  Extrapolate those numbers over a 550 AB season and you're looking at 40 HRs and 128 RBIs.  That part of the very young hitter's game is without question.  However, despite some nice comments from rehabbing star pitchers who had him receive for them in Syracuse the fact is that he's not yet ready to be a major league catcher.  

That aspect of the game requires framing, calling the game, reinforcing pitchers who are shaky and throwing out potential base stealers. Remember how no matter what Mike Piazza did with his bat people would harp on his un-Bench-like defensive game?  

The Mets would be wise to allow Alvarez a winter and at least half of next year to work specifically on becoming a better catcher before they see how he handles major league pitches thrown to him as a batter.

Other hitters on the Syracuse roster seem perhaps to top out as bench or utility players rather than future regulars.  You're not always right in that assessment.  Witness what Brandon Drury did this year first with Cincinnati and then with San Diego.  

He is hitting north of .270 with 21 HRs in little more than a half season's worth of ABs.  You can't always guess correctly as the Mets erred in letting him walk away from the organization.  

Players in this next tier include the occasionally promoted Travis Blankenhorn.  He is just a .255 career hitter in the minors and now at age 26 his prospect status is aged veteran.  Still, he's hitting over .280 this season for Syracuse with 13 HRs and 48 RBIs, so those numbers would probably play well in a backup role for an infielder.  

Even less promising is former first round pick from St. Louis, Nick Plummer.  The man has fought through various injuries until he was finally cut loose by the Redbirds.  The Mets gave him a major league contract and he's responded by hitting rather poorly, showing neither the batting average nor power that would suggest he's over the hump physically or he simply isn't as good as his draft position would suggest.  

Lower down that tier would be Kahlil Lee, a speedy outfielder who once stole 53 bases in the Texas League, but he's not seemingly been able to address the higher level of pitching in AAA and very briefly in the majors.  This year for Syracuse he's hitting just .197 and not really running as they would have expected.  He's probably on the fringe of being released.

One name not too familiar to all but the most ardent farm team geeks is Daniel Palka.  The lefty hitting outfielder and first baseman has clubbed over 20 HRs on four occasions in the minors while maintaining an aggregate .268 batting average.  

At age 31 his prospect days are long gone but he could prove to be a spare part when injuries occur and an extra bench player might be needed.  However, he's not on the 40-man roster and making the changes necessary to get him to Citifield may not be worth the effort.  At age 26 he made a nice rookie start with the White Sox, hitting 27 HRs, driving in 67 but only hitting .240.  He never built upon that early major league success.

I'm not going to delve into the pitching side of things as it gets mighty ugly rather quickly.  Despite Tom Brennan's advocacy of promoting strikeout whiz Bryce Montes de Oca who has 35 Ks in just 22 IP, he also has given up 14 BBs over that same stretch which helps contribute to an ERA north of 4.00.  

The names you know already from various stints in the majors and minors -- David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Stephen Nogosek and Yoan Lopez are what they are.  The first two could prove to be capable middle-of-the-rotation starters.  Nogosek might prove pen-worthy.  Lopez is at best an unknown variable.  

One unknown name is Locke St. John who came up through the Detroit Tigers organization before he transitioned to the Rangers, the Cubs and then over to the Mets team structure.  He has always struck out close to 1 batter per IP and his career ERA is 3.44 (with a 2022 number of 3.24 in Syracuse).  

Given the Mets' lack of lefties in the pen, I wouldn't bet the house on the man, but I wouldn't write him off as just filler either.  

It would seem that any future transactions the Mets front office make involving bringing back prospects had better look long and hard about improving the next generation of pitching.  

Thomas Szapucki, warts and all, was the best of what was in AAA and he's no longer part of the Mets.  After that it's a close-your-eyes and throw a dart manner of choosing who to entrust on the mound.  

It would seem that Eppler and company have their work cut out for them.