8/24/22

Reese Kaplan -- 2023 Free Agents Potentially Leaving the Mets


Thinking ahead to roster decisions for 2023, the Mets are going to have to do a lot of major analysis, rub every rabbit's foot they can find and dig deep into Steve Cohen's pockets.  

When you start to examine who can choose to leave the team after this season's conclusion, there are likely going to be quite a few new faces wearing orange and blue for the upcoming year.

For purposes of this exercise, let's only consider the ones who are on the major league team (or should be if health permitted).  

That list is pretty impressive and a bit scary when it comes to picking the right ones and casting off the less desirable players who will earn their future paychecks elsewhere.  Included are their ages, current salaries and any option that exists for the Mets (or the player) to ensure continued employment in New York.

Chris Bassitt -- Age 33 -- $8.65 million -- $19.5 million mutual option

Carlos Carrasco -- Age 35 -- $12 million -- $14 million option or $3 million buyout

Jacob deGrom -- Age 34 -- $32.5 million -- opt out clause

Edwin Diaz -- Age 28 -- $10.25 million -- standard FA opportunity

Mychal Givens -- Age 33 -- $3.5 million -- $1.5 million mutual option

Seth Lugo -- Age 32 -- $2.925 million -- standard FA opportunity

Trevor May -- Age 32 -- $7.75 million -- standard FA opportunity

Tyler Naquin -- Age 31 -- $4.025 million -- standard FA opportunity

Brandon Nimmo -- Age 29 -- $7 million -- standard FA opportunity

Adam Ottavino -- Age 36 -- $4 million -- standard FA opportunity

Daniel Vogelbach -- Age 30 -- $1.5 million -- $1.5 million mutual option

Taijuan Walker -- Age 29 -- $7 million -- $6 million player option

Trevor Williams -- Age 30 -- $3.9 million -- standard FA opportunity

Yikes!  On a 26 man roster that's half of it.  Then throw in the players who you might want out of here like Eduardo Escobar and a handful of others.  The team you've appreciated being in first place through most of this season is likely going to look quite different In Port St. Lucie in February.  


The questions, of course, are who should stay and who should go?  Obviously every Met fan worth his or her salt would lead off with retaining Jacob deGrom and Edwin Diaz.  

When you're dealing with arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball and the best relief pitcher in baseball you really need to pull out all stops and make it happen.  The Wilpons are not in charge anymore.  The Cohen organization realizes that you must invest in your primary assets in order to turn a profit.  

After those two, however, the decisions get tougher to make.  Chris Bassitt at times showed he was on teams who don't already have deGrom and Max Scherzer in the rotation that he was as good as other club's best starter.  

Then there were times when his health faltered a bit and he was not the stud he'd appeared to be.  Right now he's pitching to a record of 11-7 with a 3.26 ERA.  That's top notch stuff and if what it's going to take to keep him here is the $19.5 million he'd get if the club only made a gesture to extend him a qualifying offer.  

For comparison's sake, Zack Wheeler signed with the Phillies for about $24 million per season for career numbers about the same as Bassitt.  $19.5 would be a bargain price.

Taijuan Walker has at times looked like the All Star he was in the first half of 2021 and other times his health won't let him execute to his fullest potential.  At $7 million he's a bargain and his $6 million option for 2023 will likely be declined so he can pursue a much more lucrative deal elsewhere.  

Giving long term money to health risks is usually not a good decision but there's no denying the man's talent.  If he came in somewhere in the Carlos Carrasco range of pay -- $12 million per year -- $12 to $14 million per season -- you'd have to consider it unless you really think Peterson or Megill will provide close to equal output at a bargain basement price.  


Speaking of Carrasco, he's someone who the Mets need to think long and hard about retaining or waving goodbye.  Yes, the man has withstood illness and injury in his career.  When he's on his game, he's quite good and for his professional life in the majors he has a 4.06 ERA.  

That's not bad for the back of the rotation, but is it worth exercising his $14 million option to keep him here for his age 35 season?  Or would it make more sense to pay out the $3 million buyout and hope for the best from Peterson or Megill? 

Bullpen options are going to be very difficult to decide.  Seth Lugo has some ill will about being taken out of the rotation and although he's earned his keep in the big leagues as a reliever he has not been shy about voicing his desire to become a starter.  

Trevor Williams has been way better than anyone could have predicted, but he's likely looking for a regular rotation spot rather than a lost cause long reliever/spot starter role.  Adam Ottavino has been both good and bad at times this year.  He's not cheap and he's turning 37.  My guess is he will try to find a bigger payday elsewhere.  


The surprising "keep" here in the group may be Mychal Givens.  He has a history of working with Buck Showalter in the past and for his career he is a 3.45 ERA pitcher for his career.  That's actually equal to Seth Lugo and slightly better than Adam Ottavino.  

He currently earns less money than Lugo will get and way less than Ottavino receives.  Let his less-than-stellar start in NY fall by the wayside and look at history.  He's a quality pitcher and the Mets are going to be VERY short in the pen in 2023 as of right now.  

On the position players, there are really only two to consider.  Brandon Nimmo has turned himself into a better-than-average centerfielder and still gets on base at an enviable rate.  he's quite popular with the fans and they would be very upset to see him go.  It won't break the bank to retain him long term, but do understand it comes with his historic health risks.

The other one worth keeping is the king sized latecomer, Daniel Vogelbach.  He and Darin Ruf are turning out to be the DH the Mets hoped to have but Vogelbach may still be deluded that he's a full time 162-game-per-season player rather than a platoon lefty slugger.  

For that reason his ego may encourage him to test the waters of free agency, but he's almost instantaneously ingratiated himself to the team and the fans.  He's worth exploring to keep as well.  

Who's on your keeper list?

7 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Morning.

My hopes:

1. Jake

2. Diaz

3. Bassett

4. Ottavino

5. Nimmo

Tom Brennan said...

A very fine 2022 staff has barely survivied with all the lost pitcher games due to injury.

Jake should stay if no health issues emerge - if we can win the bidding. Edwin MUST stay. The team would be 10 back otherwise. Bassitt is a no doubter, as is Walker. Like Mack, I'd keep Ottavino. Nimmo too, if he is not outlandish.

Cookie? We'll see how he finishes and who else is out there.

Vogelbach? Depends on what he wants $$-wise. I think I'd prefer to have Baty and Vientos and go younger, unless Daniel goes cheaply, which he might. He can hit righties and DH. If I were the Yanks, I'd grab him if the Mets don't.

I'd probably keep the "invaluable in 2022" Trevor WIlliams if reasonable.

Other than Bryce Montes de Oca, Eric Orze, and possibly Butto, the pen is thinny thin thin in the minors and no starters are ready. None.

Is Joey Lucchesi under contract for 2023?

I truly think Cohen will break the bank in 2023, to transition to 2024, when the likes of Wyatt Young (laugh, but he was on base 2 more times last night), Baty, Vientos, Alvarez, and Mauricio arrive to lighten the 2024 payroll. Unless a few of them are traded. Only keep playoff-caliber prospects.

Matt Allan in 2024, Hamel in 2024, Askew in 2024. Maybe Daniel Juarez, who was just promoted to Brooklyn after an outstanding Lucie campaign. I think 2025 is the year the pitching from the minors becomes more of a wave. We have to bridge the next two seasons. Max the Immortal is getting old. Megill must step up and stay healthy.

Mack Ade said...

You just can't do it.

de Oca and Young in one comment

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, I keep looking at little Wyatt's picture and thinking, "nah!" Then I realize he's had 32 hits and 22 walks (54 times on) in his last 26 AA games, and "nah" turns to "wow" - again, this is his first full pro season. He sure seems like Luis G, and possibly an upgraded version.

Montes- anyone who seems to be getting it all together in his 2nd pro season, as a AAA closer, and throws 100-102 is on my Like List.

Paul Articulates said...

Nice summary. Very scary to see that long to-do list.
I agree 100% that Jake and Sugar are priorities to re-sign.
Next tier are Nimmo and Bassitt.
Cookie and Vogey are going to have to wait with several players coming up through the system that could fill their roles at a much cheaper price.
Relief pitchers are up and down. The Mets gambled by letting Loup go and it turned out that he had his best season with the Mets and has been less valuable this year. A similar story could be considered for May, Lugo, and others. I have always been a Lugo fan, but this year has been a struggle with consistency which is exactly why teams are always playing musical relievers.

Gary Seagren said...

SC has to be looking at the model to follow which is the Atlanta Steamrollers who are young, SIGNED and ALWAYS have the right guy at the right time to bring up. I foolishly thought the loss of Freddy would hurt ....it didn't as they didn't skip a beat and in my mind that's the FO we should pilfer. Lets face it were OLD and need to retool but of course that's hard to do while trying to compete but I'm sure SC will try. I think we need to be ready to handle the extra games that come with not winning the division as much as I hate to say it. Paul I agree with Jake Sugar Nimmo and Bassitt and if they go that route it will tell us their still in it to win it.

Tom Brennan said...

Gary, Mack told me Heis signing you long term. FYI.