8/25/22

Tom Brennan - Baseball is a Series of Course Adjustments and Tweaks


Joe Pepitone is not available, so what other tweaks can the Mets make?  

I've got an idea...

I am writing this Tuesday AM for a Thursday AM article, as I may be out of pocket for a few days.  I know a lot can change in two days.

The Mets' roster is tweaked almost daily, and with the roster expansion to 28 on nearby Sept. 1, more tweaks lie ahead. 

Brett Baty gave us a “WHAT THE…” moment in his first MLB at bat, A HR IN ATLANTA AGAINST THE RED-HOT ATLANTA BRATS.

But he is 2 for 23 since.

Eduardo Escobar? .254, with a .508 slug % as  a righty hitter (fine) vs lefties. Just a paltry .199 against righties (for which he should be fined).

Can a roster tweak be made there? I say TWEAK LOGIC is needed, as follows:

1) Where would a team be benefited by a tweak?  Ans. When a tweak could improve the team.

2) When should a tweak be made? Ans. When it would benefit the team.

So…Escobar is a 3rd baseman who hits lefties well, but not righties.

So...of course, Baty normally hits righties very well, but he's never faced MLB pitching before. He barely faced AAA pitching before.  So, he struggles.

Me?  I'd consider another tweak.  Send Baty down, give Mark Vientos a shot.

Yep, like Escobar, he hits lefties better.  Not great, in terms of tweak logic, there.

But, through Sunday, he hit .404 in 12 August AAA games. .404 is FUEGO.  

"Tweak Logic" people can't look at his season stats to get a true picture.  Why?  

Because in April, in the barely thawing tundra of Syracuse, he hit a frozen .164 with 1 HR and 8 RBIs.  Looking at full season stats, then, is misleading, if you are interested in how good a AAA hitter he is over an extended period of time.

Since May 1, which still constitutes an extended period of time. he has crushed at .331 with 21 HRs and 58 RBIs in 68 games.  Not shabby. 

And all against AAA.  Baty's gaudy stats were almost all against weaker AA pitching.  AA and AAA pitchers are different. Ask Franke Alvarez...AAA is tougher.

My roster "tweak" (as I write this) would be to give Vientos a shot for a week in Baty's place.  He might hit, he might not. Then decide if either player is on the roster come Sept. 1.

Another reason I'd like to see Vientos called up now is, oblique injuries are tricky suckers.  What if Escobar goes down again with a relapse?  Then you've got Baty in the frying pan again.  If Vientos is hotter, he could have already had his toes dipped in major league waters, and get past the adjustment phase a bit.

I see that the Mets called up righty Connor Grey after calling up, and DFAing, the Banker.  The Mets, including Connor Grey (a not-so-fine 5-5, 5.52, 1.61 WHIP), have used 31 guys to pitch in 2022.  That's a lot of pitcher tweaks. 

Hey, if your mother-in-law wants to pitch in a game, have her give Billy Eppler a call.  He'll give her an inning, without a doubt.

I'm a screwball, so that alone should be enough to get me an inning at Citifield.

Anyway, I suggest one more tweak (if it hasn't happened already) - call up:

MARK VIENTOS, WHO EATS TWEAKS FOR BREAKFAST!

After all, my chief scout, Ralph Kramden, says Vientos hits 'em "to da moon!"

METS MINORS MISHEGOSH

MIGHTY MARK VIENTOS HAD 2 HITS AND AN RBI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

 - What part of "he's red hot" do you not understand?

Dom Smith 2 for 4.  Daniel Palka hits HR # 24.

Ronny Mauricio has plateaued at a very high error rate at SS:

2019, 106 games at SS, 23 errors.

2021, 95 games at SS, 22 errors.

2022, 93 games at SS, 24 errors.

Francisco Lindor? 122 games at SS, just 9 errors.

It seems clear - Ronny Mauricio is not a true SS when compared to a true SS.

Jake Mangum recently began rehab games, and in his last 4 games has 7 hits and 2 walks.

BROOKLYN:

Jose Peroza is scalding in August. .391 with a .500 on base % in 20 games.  Excellent fielding in 2022, also.  Promote him!

Stanley Consuegra and Sherveyn Newton both went 2 for 4 with a HR and 2 RBIs in Brooklyn's 5-4 win. 

Daison Acosta was 0-6.  Now, he's 5-6 after his win tonight.


19 comments:

Mack Ade said...

A couple of things.

1. Tweaks are for twoeks. Or is that Kix is for Kids?

2. Vientos' immediate imput is dependent on what Ruf does going forward.

3. I see Vientos and Baty platooning at DH next season and Guillorme the 3B starter.

4. I'm being told that the Mets payroll could come close to 400K next season. If true, and since the FA market is weak, look for deGrom and Diaz to be removed.

Mack Ade said...

*renewed

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, I think you are right on the DH vs. 3B scenario, except I'd be reluctant to use Luis for more than 120 games for durability reasons. For some reason, he is retaining weight he didn't have when he was durable in the minors. I think it can lead to running injuries like he currently has.

The Mets only face lefties about 30%, so performance would dictate a time split, but I'd (as of now) want to go in thinking that Vientos and Baty would get 350 at bats apiece.

Escobar? Question is, is he in decline or is he experiencing "Lindor 2020"? I think "decline". He will be 34 next year, that age where many of them just go downhill (Bruce, Frazier, Reyes).

Of course, one thing I do not know is how many hits Escobar lost to the shift, which is being undone in 2023, another tremendous move by baseball besides fixing the absurd imbalanced 2022 schedule.

Paul Articulates said...

The Vientos story is interesting. All of us on the outside looking in see that he is continuing to pound the ball in AAA. Meanwhile, those on the inside making the decisions are passing him over for call-ups. There is a reason they have waited. Let's see if he is on the September expansion (though it is much smaller than the September expansions you are used to).

Tom Brennan said...

If Jake is healthy, re-sign him. Edwin is a must, Mack, or Bryce Montes de Oca will be your closer.

bill metsiac said...

I like Mack's #3 myself, though I also like Vogie. If Vientos is as good as his AAA #s say he is, it seems wasteful to only use him vs LHPs, unless his splits are Esco-like. In any case, barring huge Sep/Oct/Nov #s, I expect Esco to be traded.

Also, I have a question for those more savvy than I: When do each of our system's teams' seasons end?

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, Brooklyn ends on Sept 11, then the playoffs. I imagine Syracuse, Binghamton, and St Lucie end around the same time. It ends, it seems, later than it used to, probably because of MLB limiting roster expansions to 28. I like it - why end earlier while the weather is still great? Probably they ended it earlier also because of kids going back to school, hurting their attendance.

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, I do not know how Vientos has hit righties lately - my guess is very well. But he absolutely crushes lefties. Other than playing fewer games than Alonso did in 2018, suppressing his HR and RBI totals, which are directly correlated to how many games you play, Vientos has hit better in 2022 at age 22 than Alonso did in 2018 at age 23.

Their slash lines are very similar, but 1) Alonso was in AA for more than half of 2018, while Vientos was in AAA all of this season, and 2) Vientos had a very bad April, but has been red hot ever since, hitting over .330.

HR rate? Well, following his slow first 25 games in 2021 (understandable - he missed 2020 and they skipped him from Low A to AA), he has since played 147 games and hit 47 HRs and driven in 120. If you ask me, those are Alonso numbers. And he did that at age 21-22.

Most of all, he is .325, 22 HR, 61 RBIs in just 270 at bats after April this year. I cannot see how that won't translate into .250 or better with power for the Mets in 2023.

bill metsiac said...

The minors used to end around Labor Day, with some on the 1st. I'm glad they go longer now. I guess we can still call up players in mid-Sept, but if we option someone to make room, are both ineligible for the playoffs?

Remember1969 said...

I have to disagree with you about Baty being the strong half of the DH platoon. I think they will put Baty on third and let him grow there for the next few years

Remember1969 said...

As for Vientos, it seems as if they don't trust his defense anywhere on the field more than they think they can get from his bat at the MLB level. They don't want to box themselves in with another player they can't hide with the DH role only. I'm betting that they'll use him in n a trade for controllable pitching this winter

Tom Brennan said...

Maybe they will trade Vientos - but if it is to a hitter-friendly park, the Mets may be trading away a future HR title guy.

Just keep in mind one thing. Pete's defense was always a big question mark. He's improved to adequate.

Pete's defense was awful when he was Vientos' age.

Vientos' prospect page on the Mets' site has his ceiling as a 60 arm (excellent) and 45 field (average). That ain't bad. He's 22. He has his homework assignment for this winter. Get his game throwing/fielding to 60/45 by spring training. How to get there? Be super-diligent, like Pete.

He is slow, that he can't change much, but he can work on running quickness. Pete isn't a track star, either.

I'd be loathe to trade away a guy I think will hit 40 HRs more than once in his MLB career if given the opportunity to play enough games.

I am puzzled that most lists have Mauricio ranked ahead of Vientos. Only one hits for high average (Vientos) and only one has a poor OBP (Mauricio). If someone forced me to keep one and trade one, I'd trade Mauricio.

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, that I do not know off-hand, but it is a good question.

Woodrow said...

Mauricio is a SS who can easily move down the defensive spectrum. Mauricio is still filling out. Mauricio has as many HRs as Vientos. I’m taking Mauricio

Mack Ade said...

Woodrow

Mauricio is a disaster defensively at short.

2 errors last night

23 for the season

Remember1969 said...

The way I always understood the playoff eligibility rule was that a player had to be on the active 25 man roster as of midnight August 31, except in case of injury. If an already injured player is eligible to come off the IL between 9/1 and the end of the regular season and he was on the 25 man roster when he went on the IL, then he can be reinstated and be eligible. The player he replaced on the roster is now ineligible. I don't think he can replace a player that was called up as a result of the expanded rosters. Analogous to the swizzle required for 40 man roster slots.

I am not 100% sure all that is correct, but...

Example..if Tylor Megill is activated on Sept 10, he could be playoff eligible, but would have to replace somebody that was otherwise eligible because they were on the active roster on September 1..that would be Connor Gray if today were Sept 1

If anyone knows differently, please enlighten!

Tom Brennan said...

I am busy, but wanted to add that the FCL playoffs are underway. Mets won their division. 4 teams involved. I think DSL season is over.

Woodrow said...

Mack

Mauricio will be a middle of the order OFer who can steal some bases. Shortstops can move to other positions.

Mack Ade said...

Woody

And when will this conversion start??