3/10/24

Mack's Weekly Draft Outlook

 


Well, we've eaten the last drumstick, put away the Christmas decorations, and popped the champagne that particular night at midnight.


Low and behold, both the high school and college baseball teams are playing critical games that could lead to a lucrative way of strengthening a budding legacy, or, at worse, offer a young kid of poverty going nowhere into a chance at a higher education.


Sports mold the youth and no better example of this is baseball. I dedicate this series to two groups. One, the players that didn't make it all the way in baseball but went on to apply themselves to forge out a successful life without a bat or ball in their hands, or the ones that easily would have made their home team if they didn't have to go to work after school so their was food on the family table. Both are equally as important as guys named Trout or Alonso or Ohtani. 


So... here goes with this week's highlights that I have gathered from many of the members of the professional scouting community. 


Tyler Jennings @TylerJennings24 Mar 09, 2024: 

Looks like Chase Burns' day is done here at the Couch and what an outing it was. 

6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 14 K (65 strikes on 99 pitches, 24 whiffs) 

He sat 96-100 most of the night, even touching 101 on pitch #98. Showed SL/CB/CH. Film will come later tonight. 

 

MLB Pipeline @MLBPipeline Sat, Mar 09, 2024: 

Gage Jump threw five scoreless innings and struck out 10, setting a career high. 

Scouting grades & more on the No. 46 Draft prospect: 

https://t.co/28fNjxyKF5  

 

Aaron Fitt  @aaronfitt  Sat, Mar 09, 2024: 

Shaky start for Duke lefty Andrew Healy, who walks the bases loaded then allows a 2-run double to Jack Winnay, giving Wake Forest a 2-0 lead in the first. But Healy does minimize the damage by fanning Austin Hawke on a 93 mph heater to strand men at 2nd & 3rd.


Hey Tom! Want speed? 

Projected first round pick, OFRHP Konnor Griffin, broke the single season stolen base record on Saturday, at his Jackson Prep school. 41 steals. In 14 games. The school plays a 37 game schedule. I had to check go back and check my math on this one.


Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) Mar 08, 2024: 

I had the pleasure of sitting down with LHP Cam Caminiti this week to discuss what drives him to be great. Already touching 98 as a 17-year-old southpaw, Caminiti's draft stock is soaring. It's the best operation in the class and an 80-grade mindset toward life. 

https://t.co/QKoTcTME3e  

 

Friday Starters (@fridaystarters) postedon Fri, Mar 08, 2024: 

.@BaseballUGA Charlie Condon hit two HRs today, bringing his total to nation-best 11. Slashing .549/.652/1.333. 

Distances & exit velos for 10/11 HR:

364 ft, 387, 429, 417, 373, 437, 418, 454, 406, 388

102 mph, 112, 110, 109, 100, 112, 111, 112, 103, 112 

https://t.co/g9kxfh4IQY  

 

Tyler Jennings  (@TylerJennings24) Mar 07, 2024: 

Finally put together Trey Yesavage  @treyyesavage's March 1st start. Some takeaways: 

- 95 MPH on pitch #92

- 26 whiffs (5 FB, 12 SL, 9 CH)

- 75/103 strikes (72.8%)

- Fun pitchability/sequencing 

Here's the full start on film, including slo-mo open-side: 

https://t.co/RnQwKgW2Rz 


There was considerable pre-season discussion on what position Georgia infielder Charlie Condon would play this season. Well, this seems to have been settled early since, as of the end of Saturday's dame, he already has played 47 innings at third. Arm strength fits right in. Decent lateral movement for an average athlete.


As of Saturday, Greysen Carter/Vandy, Chase Burns/WF, Chase Allsup/Auburn, Bradley Wilson/App. St., Pierce George/Alabama, and Brody Brecht/Iowa are the first pitchers to throw at least one 100 mph toss.


Joe Doyle - @JoeDoyleMiLB 

LHP Cam Caminiti is wired different. Keeps his head down, stays off social media and works. No frills, just sweat equity. Walked away from this interview extremely impressed by this kid. He strikes me as a very early pick in the Draft.


Joe Doyle  (@JoeDoyleMiLB)

Mar 05, 2024: 

Tennessee OF Dylan Dreiling continuing to hit LHP is a development this spring. 

.364/.417/.455 v. LHP entering the day. 

 

Prospects Live  (@ProspectsLive)

Mar 05, 2024: 

Braden Montgomery was slashing .410/.540/.897 with 5 HRs and 21 RBI. Safe to say he’s lava hot! He keeps it going tonight with another 

 

Brian Recca  (@brian_recca) Mar 06, 2024: 

Alex Ramos | RHP | '24 Elig.

Goshen Central, NY 

@FIUBaseball commit 

First look at under-the-radar righty Alex Ramos. Lean, proj. frame. Loose/quick arm from high arm slot. Lots to work with here. Looking forward to seeing Ramos again this spring.

FB: 93-95

CB: 74-76

CH: mid-80s  https://t.co/wTB0IMnZcV  

 

 

D1Baseball (@d1baseball)  Mar 06, 2024: 

Two-way star Ethan Bates  @ethan_bates3 has unsurprisingly been in the middle of the action for undefeated @LATechBSB, hitting .408/.492/.694 with a team-best 17 RBIs and 34 total bases. 

He's also notched three saves on the mound 

 

MLB Pipeline  (@MLBPipeline) Mar 06, 2024: 

Cam Smith's third homer of the season is a no-doubter to dead-center, raising his average to .500 through 50 at-bats. 

Check out the scouting report on the No. 25 Draft prospect: 

https://t.co/5msviPBSnW  

 

Bless You Boys  

LHP Gage Jump, LSU

Current draft stock: Second round 

It's been a tough road for Jump, who was a famous player on the showcase circuit but fell to the 18th round in 2021 and wound up in college instead of signing in that late stage of the draft. As a freshman at UCLA, he pitched primarily out of the bullpen before blowing out his elbow after only seven appearances. Rehab following Tommy John surgery kept him off the field for the entire 2023 season, meaning there's been very little new data since Jump's teenage days. 

The intrigue with Jump springs from his fastball, which plays way up from its low-to-mid 90s velocity. The pitch is friendly to Stuff+ models because of its high spin and tremendous IVB, reportedly measured at over 20 inches during a fall 2023 scrimmage. Every scouting report you'll see on Jump points out how much trouble hitter have picking up the fastball because it has an uncommon spin and movement profile. He uses that ability to steal strikes in the zone. 

The lefty is a self-described four pitch guy, with the standard mix of slider, curveball, and changeup to back the fastball. He's toyed with the shape of that slider, showing cutterish looks at times. However, evaluators consistently prefer his curveball and it gets plus grades. It's a bit on the slow side and has big, late downward movement. It looks a lot like the fastball coming out of the hand and he pulls hitters off balance with it. The other two pitches need refinement, and serve mostly to keep hitters honest, especially the changeup. 

Now at LSU and fully healthy again, Jump will have to build on his good reputation from years ago to maintain value as a top 50 pick. For now, there appears to be a great deal of relief risk here, but a strong campaign in the bayou would go a long way to assuaging those concerns. It would be nice to see him throw a pitch with consistent fading action to deploy when his fastball isn't getting the job done. Under Ryan Garko, Detroit has gotten very good at teaching the split change, which would do wonders for drawing more soft contact and ugly swings in Jump's pitch mix. You'd like him to stick in the rotation, but of he can't, the foundation is here for a lefty setup man, especially if he gains a few ticks in relief. 

Simply because of time lost to injury, the path to big league action is probably longer for Jump than it would be for similarly aged and talented players. I'd love to see what Detroit's development staff could do with a pitcher who has natural feel for spin and an effective fastball to anchor his pitch mix.

 

 










4 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Gage Jump is a great name for an athlete.

And Mack, I love speedy Konner, but I mostly want pitching. Maybe when I get overwhelmed by our minors starting top 6 between now and June, I will think differently and be more open to a first round non-pitcher..

Tom Brennan said...

Interesting race shaping up between 5 guys this spring: Choi has been on 9 of 18 times, while Voit and Stewart are 3 singles in 35 at bats with 2 walks.

Gamel 3 for 12 and a walk. Choi is in the lead but is really an 1B/DH, but not an OF. Only DJ and Gamel play OF, and only Gamel is an average fielder.

Trayce Thompson? Great start, but in his last game was 0 for 4 with 2 Ks. Which is the real Trayce?

Mack Ade said...

This is an outstanding bat draft meaning they will ho first.

My guess is two pitchers picked before the Mets turn

Big opportunity here for a potential SP1

Tom Brennan said...

I admit, I do love monster bats, but being 19th instead of 9th is a big penalty. It could be the difference between drafting a future all star and an average player.