Tom Brennan - Megill by the Stats, and by Logic; Early Hitting Concerns

 

Numbers can tell you a lot about a player.

While some seem almost inclined to assign Tylor Megill to the trash bin,  they numbers for that same Tylor Megill are enlightening.

In comfy, cozy Citifield, in his career, he is a dandy 11-6, 3.88. On the road, though, a saggy 6-10, 5.73. 

Certainly, in part, that is due to Citi being a protective-to-pitchers park. 

Part of the Megill road blues might be nerves. As a veteran now, though, Tylor should feel more at home everywhere. But he needs to close that home-road performance gap.

Also, how a guy does in his wins might indicate his upside potential. Megill’s 17 career wins have come with a dazzling 1.88 ERA.  He can be really, really good when he is on.

When he has lost in his 16 losses, it hasn’t been pretty. No, sir. As in a 9.21 ERA. He has to toughen up and keep tough games closer.  Perhaps a good part of that is his runners surrendered by relievers.

In games where they scored 3 or more runs? He is 16-7 career. 

Score more, he’ll win more.  That is what that tells me.

In 25% of his starts, they’ve scored two or fewer runs. Good luck there. 

Also, my recollection is that in quite a few games where they scored 3 or more runs, a lot of those Mets runs came after he had been pulled, so he’d miss the decision.

In his 25 games pitched with no decision, he has been solid…a 4.21 ERA. 

A better offense could turn no-decisions into Ws. 

In part, though, some of those NDs were early in his career, when he got pulled a lot after 4 innings, or in the 5th, when he was pitching well. 

No 5 innings completed in your start, no W.

He also pitched poorly as a rookie down the stretch, when his innings load greatly jumped from the prior year in the minors and he got gassed. His 71 innings jumped to 140 innings in his Mets rookie campaign. He had a sizzling 1.04 ERA in 5 July starts in 2021, but had a fizzling 6.00 ERA the rest of the way. Fatigue sucks.

He got rushed, too, with just 40% of the AA/AAA innings prior to call up than Jake, Zack, and Thor had compiled pre-call up. That was (by comparison) a really rapid jump when theMets had a dire need.

Last year, he was injured 8 weeks in, pitched poorly, went on the IL, and returned vs. two lethal 2023 teams - the Braves and the Os. In the first 8 weeks of the season, and in his last 6 starts, though, he pitched very well. 

He also has had to face dangerous Atlanta rather than, say, pitching FOR Atlanta and pitching against the weaker Mets. 

Relative team strength matters. Roger Craig was 15-46 in 2 years as an original Met, with a decent 4.14 ERA. Had he pitched for an above .500 team and got to pitch against the putrid Mets those 2 seasons, might he have been 36-25, 3.60 instead?

Against the lethal hitting Braves, Megill has a decent career 4.79 ERA in 41 innings.

Tom Seaver was 12-20 vs. the Big Red Machine, just as a point of comparative reference here. Tough hitting teams can be quite a handful.

Lastly, Megill’s batting average allowed against in his first 50 pitches of games is .246. Thereafter, it jumps dramatically to .297. Overall career, .268.  

Perhaps sharper control and his new splitter can economize his pitches per inning and bring that BAA down to .250 or less in 2024, and result in a lot more success and getting an inning per start deeper into games.

OUTLOOK:

His new splitter gives him another significant weapon. It could be a real difference maker.

Consider all of the above, please, when anticipating what Megill will do in 2024.

Also, while doing so, please keep this in mind about two other current MLB players:

Player #1: age 25, 201 innings, 11-17, 4.88/1.40

Player #2: age 24, 170 innings, 9-11, 4.12/1.35.

#1 is Verlander, #2 is Scherzer. Mets fans probably would have run both out of town on a rail.

They both obviously got a lot better. So, I believe, can Megill.

METS ARE SNORING WHEN IT COMES TO SPRING SCORING

Lots of kiddies getting ST ABs, that’s the truth. 

But just 28 runs in 8 games (3.5 runs per game) is not heart warming. 

Braves? 5 runs per game, naturally.

Of course, Mets bats could tear things up when the regular season starts.

You see, in 2022, Kansas City’s hitters totally crushed spring training, like no Mets team ever has. 

In 637 spring training at bats, KCR rocked it at .319/.377/.554, with 123 runs scored in 17 games. 

If an individual hitter put up numbers like those in his regular season, MVP bells would be ringing. 

That explosive offense did NOT carry over for KCR to the regular season that year, though, when they ended 2022 at just 24th in runs scored. 

The Mets in 2022 were 29th in scoring in spring training, but a much higher 6th in the regular season en route to 101 wins.

Message to offense...score 800 regular season runs and make us happy.

800 runs won't make our writer SAVAGE happy.  He projects 820 Mets runs.

Talk is cheap, but a high number of actual runs scored?  Golden.