Reese Kaplan -- Occasionally Players Improve Late in Their Careers

Take a look at the history of reliever Brooks Raley and you have to wonder what was wrong earlier in his nondescript career before he had one stellar season with the Rays and became a free agent that the Mets secured for 2023.  He was just as good in New York and you are left scratching your head trying to figure out how and why the now 35 year old put it all together fairly late in his career.  

Prior to that first good season in Tampa he had been in 93 games starting at the age of 24 and delivered just a 3-6 record with a 5.62 ERA with the only good things showing was a strikeout rate of 10.2 per 9 IP.  Whatever clicked, we don't know but we're benefiting from his southpaw skills.

He's, of course, not the only one to have had this type of performance turnaround late in baseball life.  Sometimes it is an injury that forces a player into working differently and discovering a way of getting batters out that he previously did not enjoy.  

R.A. Dickey is a classic example of this narrative, having begun his major league baseball career at the relatively late age of 26.  During his first several mediocre seasons he compiled a 22-28 record with a 5.43 ERA and an eye popping (in a bad way) low strikeout rate which helped contribute to his 1.572 WHIP and his 10.6 hits per 9 IP surely didn't help.  

Then came the arm issues which could have stopped him completely, but the Mets took a chance on the now new knuckleballer and during his rookie effort in orange and blue he delivered an 11-9 record with a dazzling 2.84 ERA, getting that WHIP down under 1.200.  

We all know about the Cy Young Award that followed and the trade to Toronto that netted the Mets Travis d'Arnaud and then highly effective Noah Syndergaard.  There were other warm bodies that went back and forth, but the Mets came out on top given Dickey's performance with the Blue Jays was nowhere near what he did in New York.

So these history lessons are highlighted as the Mets may or may not be on the course to find another late bloomer given the long term injury to projected number one starter Kodai Senga.  To hear everyone tell it, the new pitch developed by heretofore AAAA pitcher Tylor Megill makes him the defacto replacement for Senga for as long as it's going to take for the righthander's shoulder to heal after PRP injection and recovery time.  

He's strung together some pretty impressive spring outings highlighted by a 1.13 ERA which not only has turned the fans' heads, but apparently the media and front office as well.

Don't misunderstand.  There is likely a desire to inquire about strong free agent options still available like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery but that would make an already hellacious tax burden even worse.  Controlling the financial fire from burning out of control is also a big part of David Stearns' responsibility as he heads up baseball operations.  

Consequently while it's possible that they might inquire who could be had in a trade or after another club cuts someone loose in a roster crunch.  However, if that hypothetical pitcher was not good enough to land on another club's 26 going into the start of the 2024 season, would he be any better than what the Mets already have in-house?

To reinforce the point about Megill's career thus far he does have a winning record of 17-16 with a meh ERA of 4.72.  His control is average and his strikeout arsenal is as well  The WHIP number is 1.416.  In general, it's not the resume of someone you want taking the ball every fifth day except as a doubleheader starter or 5th starter on a mediocre staff.  

Consequently, you have to shake your head a bit about a hot few outings in Florida miraculously transforming him at age 28 from what he has been into a number one starter replacement.  Reports coming out suggest mid May as the earliest to see a Senga return with the end of May a distinct possibility.  

That means you're looking at 10-11 starts if indeed the recovery process takes a more gradual pace.  Right now that's a heavy weight to put on Megill's thus far unproven shoulders.

Of course, there are other options such as Jose Butto who is younger and while not a hard thrower, managed to put together a strong string of games last season.  Joey Lucchesi is an MLB veteran who pitched to a sub 3.00 ERA in 2023 but he's been MIA due to an assumed injury.  So at this point it would seem Megill's only competition for this role is Butto.  

Right now the club is pretty thin in the starting pitching department should another injury or repeated poor work necessitate a change, but they say 2024 is a transition year to evaluate the talent already in the Mets system.  

Here's hoping the magic beans Megill got during this off season sprout majestically.  Unfortunately, hope is not a strategy.  It is faith based upon emotion more than metrics.  It's possible Megill has turned himself into a solid performer as he approaches age 29.  It's also possible he hasn't.  However, given the club's judicious spending for this season be prepared to see a lot of Megill for better or worse.