It's getting to be that time of the year for yet another roster prediction for the New York Mets. Some of the folks coming north are no-brainers like Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez and four of the five known starting pitchers as well as about four of what will likely be an eight-man bullpen. After that it gets a bit murkier.
Despite all of the feel good talk about third base belonging to Brett Baty, the fact remains that he has an option remaining which would allow the team to send him to Syracuse if they were more doubtful than many of us are about Baty turning into a BATTY type of player given his rather dismal showing offensively thus far.
Similarly, the DH-in-Waiting, Mark Vientos, has got to show the powers that be the consistent power and batting average he produced in the minors. After a 4K game in which everyone was calling for his head, he followed it up the next day with a double and a home run. He now has four for the Spring season and it would seem that 20 HRs is a minimal reasonable expectation for him wedged around his too frequent strikeouts. He probably has 30 HR power but it might take a commitment for more than a few weeks to demonstrate it and develop the skill to show it at the big league level.
Last season's surprising slugger, DJ Stewart, has not followed it up with a solid Spring. He surprisingly still has a minor league option left and if for some reason the Mets felt it would be better for him to play every day to refine the good things in his offensive game, then the Mets would need to bring in an external resource as they aren't exactly spilling over with outfield prospects.
Not for the first time, but again folks need to realize that major league contract or not, Shintaro Fujinami is not showing the control necessary to succeed in the big leagues. He has an option available and he could even be slated as a closer in Syracuse to allow him to pitch regularly and in high pressure situations. Right now he's not showing enough to warrant a seat on the plane flying to LaGuardia.
In the starting pitching side of things, interestingly Tylor Megill still has an option available. Is he a reinvented hurler who approaching 30 has finally added the pitch he lacked to become more formidable out there, or was his last start reminiscent of what he's done in his major league career the real deal. Most folks dismiss giving up a single run and then a worse start as "just Spring Training" but others are starting to wonder if Megill makes sense to cover for Kodai Senga temporarily.
Pitching even better than Megill is heretofore mostly non-descript Jose Butto. Towards the end of the season as a starter he had a very nice 3.29 ERA and this Spring suggests it was not an illusion. He doesn't have the 100 MPH heater that makes scouts drool but then neither did Tom Glavine nor Greg Maddux. He'll not be in that level of skill but he is starting to make a case for himself over Megill or in the bullpen in case the 2023 and prior Megill resurfaces regularly.
Reed Garrett has an option so his fate is pretty much sealed, much like Joey Lucchesi. Grant Hartwig also has an option so his future starting the 2024 season is in Syracuse. Ditto Josh Walker who is still recovering from injury.
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With the inability to send a player to the minors, it makes folks whose options have all been used up already the primary candidates to make the early season bullpen. Phil Bickford after a poor first outing has been very good. He is a veteran from the Dodgers prior to the Mets, so his pedigree bodes well for him.
Jorge Lopez has gone from stellar to stinker in his major league career. Given his past success most are writing his name in ink for the pen, but if they chose not to keep him on the big club they would likely lose him.
Much as been written about the work Yohan Ramirez has done with the Martinez brothers in South America. He is another arm who is interesting but doesn't have the solid resume of high level stats to guarantee anything.
Sean Reid-Foley was temporarily shut down with "arm fatigue" but he has shown flashes of multi inning competency. Not promoting him means likely he finds work elsewhere, but the injury bug is going to work against him.
Ex Atlanta Brave Michael Tonkin is also out of options and his most recent work for the first place Braves suggests he is not averse to pressure situations nor preserving leads. He's pretty certain to get the ticket to Queens.
Infielder Zack Short is pretty short on his odds of making the team. Joey Wendle is hitting and has a higher level contract. The Mets cannot afford the luxury of two spare middle infielders without injuries forcing the issue. It's highly unlikely what little we've seen of Short is all we'll see of him associated with the Mets in 2024.
6 comments:
Everything changed last night about Matk Vientos
We will talk about this at 9am
JD Martinez, at a discount? Too good to pass up.
To me, Choi and Stewart must go.
I’ll leave any Vientos thoughts to 9AM.
I have not looked (nor will I) to see how many bullpen and starter player options there are among the top 20 pitchers, but it is a lot fewer than this time last year. Fewer yo-yo moves this year then. Even in a trade , a guy with opinions is in most cases more valuable than a guy without any, so it could affect trade value a bit if they unnecessarily burn thru options like they seemed to oftentimes last season.
Any way you look at it, the Mets appear to have the makings of a strong pen.
Short will get the short end of the stick and that's too bad. He played admirably in spring training, but as you said, Wendle is hitting and has the higher contract. The play of Ty Taylor has made it less likely that McNeil will have to play much outfield this year, so that means you don't need multiple utility infielders. Short will start in AAA, and if Vientos gets traded and Baty doesn't live up to expectations, then Wendle can become the regular 3B and Short will have his shot to come up and play utility IF.
This is roster building equation. Jeff McNeil provides a huge advantage to the team in his ability to play the outfield. With that ace in the hole, there is less need to carry a true 5th outfielder.
I don't know for sure, but I would look at the 4 non-starting positions going to:
Narvaez - unfortunately, they need a back up catcher
Taylor - and they need a 4th outfielder
Wendle - a given
Short - can play multiple positions and has some speed and a decent enough bat.
Unfortunately, there is not another spot. Stewart and Vientos are the unfortunate victims here.
I agree with your choices, 1969. But I only consider Vientos a "victim" if he's glued to the bench here. He'd be better off playing every day upstate, in the field as well as at the plate.
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