Tom Brennan: Opening Day, and The School of Hard Knocks

OPENING DAY, AND LEARNING FROM BAD OUTINGS

OPENING DAY TODAY?

(NOPE - THE WEATHER IS “NOT PERMITTING”)

We all know that the Mets always win on opening day, when it doesn’t rain…it’s just the other 161 games we worry about.  

So, Friday is the new opening day.

Jose Quintana will start today, and he is 9-16 previously, with “previously” being the last 4 seasons (2020-23). Remarkable stat. 

That averages out to 2.25 wins a season for the O.D. starter.

In his final two spring outings, 7.1 IP, 11 runs. Yep, he’s ready. 100%.

Anyway, let’s get this season underway. 

ME? I won’t settle for less than 162-0.

SCHOOL OF HARD KNOCKS:

If you are an aspiring minor leaguer, you probably hope, particularly if you’re a pitcher, that you make a televised, spring training, game debut, go 2 innings and strike out all six batters on 18 pitches. 

Then send the ball to Cooperstown.

Well, it sadly doesn’t work that way in real life. 

Sometimes, it’s the “school of hard knocks”. 

Dominic Hamel, the other day, gave up 4 HRs in his brief 3.1 inning stint. 

Then, Trey McLoughlin gave up 3 HRs in an inning a few days later against the Astros. Both pitchers to this point haven’t pitched higher than AA. They both faced significantly tougher hitters and found out the hard way that what works in AA may not work with major league caliber hitters.

Hamel has very good breaking stuff, and he was occasionally hitting 97 on the gun. But to me, his offerings look straight. 97 MPH straight to major league caliber hitters can be dangerous if the location and mix of pitches is not optimal. Dom, if he was taking school notes, realizes he has to make some adjustments. I am pleased to note that in the minors, though, he has allowed just 17 homers in 246 career innings. They do say that trying too hard can straighten fastballs.

I did not watch all of McLoughlin‘s pitches, but he seemed to be throwing 91, which is low velocity against voracious major league hitters. The pitches on which he surrendered the 3 home runs were not (to my eye) well located and did not show much movement. Hopefully, he was also taking school notes, and realizes he has to make some adjustments. 

My thought (FWIW) was that he needs to have movement and change of location on his fastball like 40+ Bartolo Colon did so successfully. In the minors to date, McLoughlin has allowed 21 HRs in 123 innings, frankly too high a tater rate.

It might be a bit comforting for that pitching duo, though, to realize that Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito allowed a remarkable 82 HRs in 375 innings in 2023, so homers in the big leagues are inescapable.

The reality is, for these Mets minors pitchers, major league hitters are vastly better than AA hitters and the strategy for both in 2024 should be to pitch to minor-league hitters as if they were major league hitters, and seek to throw the stuff that would get major hitters out. Of course, that’s easier said than done. 

SCOTT DID WHAT??

On the other hand, it appears that dazzling Christian Scott has been taking plenty of notes and acting upon them. I saw the highlights of his seven strikeout, four inning game, the other day, and those strike outs showed great variety, location, and movement. It really almost felt like watching Greg Maddux pitch. 

To my four eyes, Scott is ready right now - he just needs to keep working on becoming tougher and tougher. The pitches I saw look like number one starting pitcher caliber stuff.  How did they look to you, folks?

And so it goes. 

It simply comes down to this: minor-league pitchers need to get to the point where they can effectively shut down major league hitters. Sometimes, lots of schoolwork be required. Pardon the grammer.

Vientos, too. I think of the movie Warrior, where teacher turned fighter Brendan Connolly is about to lose his home due to huge medical bills for his child. He gets back into the ring to raise some dough, and miraculously gets added into a $5 million winner take-all fight tournament. 

His coach confronts him in between rounds in one round against an unbeaten killer fighter, and tells him bluntly, that he either wins that fight, or he loses his home. Well, he didn’t lose his home. He won that fight and won the purse. 

Mark needs to be that relentless. They sent him down, they’re trying to “steal his home”, and he’s got to dig in, get the heck up off the mat, and not let them. Go through AAA pitching like a knife through butter.