Reese Kaplan -- Late Blooming Success for Pitchers Can Happen

If you want to start a charged debate among Mets fans, toss out the name Tylor Megill and watch the fireworks ignite.  For the 2024 preseason there's no question that Megill has been dominant.  Coming off his most recent 4 inning stint in which he gave up a run it "raised" his Mets ERA to a still eye popping 1.50.  

For a team in need of an emergency starter given the injuries to Kodai Senga, Max Kranick and the late start by Joey Lucchesi you couldn't really ask for much more than that.  Jose Butto probably has a Megill voodoo doll that's apparently not doing what he was promised it was when he obtained it.  Yes, unless something truly bizarre occurs, he's earned himself those Kodai Senga starts until the man from Japan demonstrates he's healthy and ready to resume his role at the top of the rotation.

While we've touched a little bit on late bloomers on the mound, the topic becomes more relevant when you try to extrapolate what the Mets have in Tylor Megill.  Up until this spring he's not exactly been a man of iron, steel or even aluminum foil.  His big league career up until now is certainly undistinguished.  

Over parts of three seasons he's 17-16 with a 4.72 ERA and an ugly WHIP of 1.416.  His numbers are not even as good as disabled teammate David Peterson who has a losing record but a superior 4.51 career ERA and a slightly better WHIP of 1.405 and nearly 10 Ks per 9 IP.

The Mets fan boys (and girls) are quick to point out the new pitch Megill has added which has turned his career around.  That may indeed be true or it could be that he's facing AA/AAA/AAAA hitters and having his way with them.  Or it could be that the starting caliber hitters are struggling against this now 28 year old Megill who might be ready to turn the page on what's been done in the past and ready to embrace a new era of pitching superiority.  After all, it's been done before by others.

You don't have to look very deep into baseball history to find a guy who until he turned age 28 was not the star he became.  Max Scherzer who is still getting compensated by the Mets was a somewhat ordinary pitcher up until this threshold.  From 2008 to 2012 between the Diamondbacks and Tigers Sherzer had a winning record of 52-42 with a 3.88 ERA but not yet had he become the multiple Cy Young Award winning pitcher that pushed him into the upper most echelon of pitching success.

Another late bloomer who went on to become a solid winner was the Big Unit, Randy Johnson.  What, he wasn't always the killer strikeout ace?  Ummm...no.  He began his career in 1988 and for the first several seasons he was just a single game over .500 with a 49-48 record compiled for the Expos and Mariners with a 3.95 ERA.  His WHIP was over 1.400 as well.  Then when he turned 29 he put it all together with a 19-8 record and 3.24 ERA with a league leading 308 strikeouts.  

A little known starting pitcher who spread his 13 years across four teams was named Curt Davis.  He didn't begin in the majors until age 30 and somehow for the San Francisco Seals got that dominant combination of pitches at age 29.  For his career Davis finished with a winning record of 158-131 with a 3.42 ERA and also racked up 33 saves as a reliever.  Yes, he is the textbook definition of a late bloomer.

Dominant closer Joe Nathan wasn't always the top tier fireman we think about now.  He was a failed starting pitcher for the San Francisco Giants with a record of 12-6.  That's the good news.  His 4.61 ERA was not spectacular and his WHIP of 1.511 was downright awful.  He was walking as many as he was striking out.  In 2003 he went 12-4 and the ERA dropped to just 2.96 but was not entrusted with closing duties.  He moved to the Twins who did just that in his age 29 season and the rest is history.

In the past we touched on R.A. Dickey who grasped the knuckleball out of necessity due to arm troubles.  He's obviously not the only one who used this erratically moving pitch to achieve dominance.  

Reliever Hoyt Wilhelm was regarded by many as an always dominant arm but he didn't even crack the majors until age 29.  He went on to have a phenomonal rookie campaign in 1952 with a 15-3 record and a 2.43 ERA over 71 games with 11 saves and a 1.155 WHIP.  He finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting and 4th in the MVP voting.  

When he hung them up for good he had saved 228 games, was 21 games over .500 and even somehow managed to start 52 of the 1070 games in which he appeared.  

Finally, there is Hall of Famer Dazzy Vance who won 197 games in his big league career but didn't even get that first one until age 31.  No one could have envisioned a 3.24 career ERA and his other pitching metrics starting so late but it indeed happened.

Now no one is expecting Tylor Megill to have this type of late success to his career in his age 28 and later years but it has been demonstrated that he wouldn't be the first who ever did it.