Tom Brennan: 1968 Deja Vu? And Projecting a Player’s Stats; Prospect Game Thoughts

Eddie (here in 1962) drove in just 20 runs in the Year of the Pitcher in 1968

The Mets over the course of their franchise have been a pitching-first organization.

Never more than in 1968.

Maybe it’s 1968 again this year.

Mets and Cardinals both managed 3 hits in a 0-0 tie on Thursday.

The Mets through that game have scored 59 runs in 18 games, 3.3 runs per game, and are hitting .222.

Mets pitchers have allowed 51 runs in those 18 games, or 2.8 runs per game. BAA .220.

In 1968, 473 Mets runs scored: 2.9 runs per game, and they hit .228.

That year, 499 Mets runs allowed: 3.1 runs per game.

I know, spring training doesn’t count. 

It’s meaningless. Everyone says so. Must be true. Right?

PROJECTING A PLAYER’S OUTPUT:

What if a certain player (between September 2023 and this spring training) had 9 HRs in his last 118 at bats?

What if you multiplied those figures by 5?

It would give you 45 projected HRs in 590 projected at bats.

That player?  

MARK VIENTOS. 

You know, the guy most of you (not you, Ray) have doubts about.

Of course, “past performance is not an indicator of future results.”

And no one thought Pete Alonso would hit 53 HRs in 2019, either.

 I thought he’d hit 40 perhaps as a rookie, but for that, others thought I was Coo Coo for Cocoa Puffs. I was…I was too conservative by 13 homers that year.

YOHAN RAMIREZ:

He was BRINGING IT on Thursday in relief, 96 MPH, and has thrown 6 shutout innings this spring, with 6 Ks. How do they sort out the bullpen brilliance into a squad to bring north?

LOOK WHAT THE TOP 43 HAVE DONE THROUGH THURSDAY:

Thru Thursday, 5 Mets pitchers had allowed 22 earned runs in 10 innings. The other 43 pitchers used had allowed 22 earned runs also, but in 144 innings (1.38 ERA). Remarkable.

PROSPECT GAME METS VICTORY, 4-2:

Me? I was very impressed by the high heat that Brandon Sproat and Dom Hamel and Tidwell and Ziegler were throwing. Sproat, pitching his first pro innings, looked a lot like a veteran, like…oh, I dunno, early Matt Harvey. 99 MPH? Blew through his first pro inning like…a pro.

Ripped double by Ryan Clifford. Sweet. Many kids looked promising. 

Me, personally? I’d trade a few of our prospect pitchers for hulking Nats righty reliever Jarlin Susana, who in his one inning hit 102 several times and also hit 103. He could be a beast.

 Rhylan Thomas singled off of him. Rodriguez, Vargas, and Hernandez looked good in their at bats. Everyone looked good in the field.  Baez hit a rope to center that was caught, looking athletic. C Vincent Perozo has a real major league body…he wants to do damage in 2024…he picked up a bloop hit off Susana, too. Colin Houck looked like a young, healthy Jason Bay at the plate. You sense he will be very good. Vargas, Gilbert, and Acuna nearly hit shots out.

I think this single game will help jettison the younger guys forward. They ought to do several of these games each spring, in addition to regular spring training.

 Happy Saturday, and may you all score bigly today.