12/16/12

'The War Room' - Enter Sandman - DEAL IS DONE

45 comments
Trade Updates:



i will always remember this year as a year where WE ( my family, my teammates, and you guys) won 20 games. glad to celebrate it with you.




Tell you in three years if I like this deal for Mets. Tell you right now it's perfect for Jays. Right time to go all in, deal prospects





Josh Thole: .584 OPS, 3rd-worst in MLB in 2012 (min. 300 PA) Only ones worse- Brendan Ryan (.555) + Dee Gordon (.561)


John Buck: Had lowest batting average (.192) in MLB last season (min. 300 PA)



Everyone worry about Travis d'Arnaud's knee: Don't. Club source says Mets looked at his medicals and they were just fine.



execs love d'arnaud/syndergaard tandem for , assuming deal gets done. AA probably not loving the publicness of this.


MLBTR - 





  • Evaluators around baseball are beyond shocked that Toronto is talking about trading d'Arnaud for a player with one year on his contract in Dickey, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Twitter links). The broad perception in the industry is that if the Mets pull off the deal, it's an incredible trade for them.
  • The combination of Syndergaard and d'Arnaud seems like an overpay by the Blue Jays unless they can get Dickey to sign an extension and also land a quality prospect in the deal, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. Rosenthal adds that he wants to see the full deal before making a judgement on it, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported yesterday that neither prospect in the deal will be an elite one.
  • The trade may not be popular amongst fans of either team, but its a smart move for both clubs, Sherman opines. Sherman writes that Dickey's stock is at its peak and d'Arnaud and Syndergaard are the right kind of return on investment.
  • One scout says the Mets should at have some concern about the posterior collateral ligament injury that sidelined d’Arnaud for much of last season, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post. “It’s not great for catchers, but nowadays they do a super job rehabbing these injuries and he’s young,” the scout said. “I like the bat along with the defense. I could see him as maybe a catcher and first-base combo.

  • Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/mets-notes-dickey-blue-jays-darnaud-syndergaard.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#iQdGIF6q18jz8vBK.99

    I imagine elsewhere, trades aren't out in media until ready to be announced, or shortly beforehand. This back-and-forth probably happens in other trades, but it's not public at that point.



    key ?: how much greater is dickey’s chance to be All-Star caliber next 3 yrs vs. d’arnaud’s ability next 6 yrs? 2-3 times?



    As many have pointed out, the Mets could delay d'Arnaud's arrival to MLB by at least 3 weeks to delay his free agency eligibility (like Ike) It may not be pretty to go with Buck/Recker, but, as I said last night, it's about 2014. No reason to rush anything

    Also keep hearing from other places that will "patch up" OF with lower-level FAs.








    Sandy Alderson said recently:

                      "Again, it's hard for me to predict what exactly will happen," Alderson said. "But we're not going to spend the money in mid-December just because we have it. We may spend it in January. We may spend it at some other time. We may not spend it. But the important thing is we have the flexibility to make a baseball decision about that rather than be constrained by sort of an artificial financial limitation." 

    As of this moment, Sandy Alderson hasn't made a bad deal. But, he also hasn't made one since the Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler trade.


    Will the addition of Travis d'Arnaud change the perception of Sandy overnight?

    We have a good idea what might come down today... d'Arnaud, Syndergaard, Buck for Dickey and Thole... obbiously, this would be a win/win deal for two teams with two completely different objectives. Toronto wants to win now while the Mets need to build a future.

    But, the deal isn't done yet so we're still at one great deal (Wheeler) no bad deals, and no other deals...

    Is not making a bad deal good enough?

    Can we honestly judge him at this point in the off-season?

    And how has his brain trust handled the international FA/draft situation (I can answer that today)... 

    It should be a fun day to be a Mets fan. Let's get going.

    45 comments:

    Mack Ade said...

    Let me begin that history has proven that we are remembered more for what we do worng, rather than the good things that we accomplish.

    In my world, Sandy Alderson is 2-1.

    He gets a big win on how he handled the Carlos Beltran and David Wright situation (insiders have told me that the long Wright delay was mostly due to Wright's agents, the Levinson Brothers).

    But he also gets a big loss on how he handled the Jose Reyes mess. Reyes could have a similar back ended deal and still be the Mets shortstop, while Ruben Tejada could be the 2B for years to come.

    2-1 so far, beginning today.

    Mack Ade said...

    also...

    would all of you 'anonymous' posters please join... make up a name if you have to... just so we know who is who

    thanks

    TP said...

    Mack,
    DJ Carassco, Frank Francisco, and the Pagan trade were losses as well. But, anyone will have some losses. It looks like this deal will go through, which will be graded as a win. I would love Gose as well, perhaps they could include Flores or another prospect.

    Craig Brown said...

    It was always my opinion that he intended to trade Reyes during the season. When Reyes was injured again he was left with 2 comp picks, which turned into 1 when the Marlins signed him. The big mistake was the horrible waste of that pick. I don't think he ever had an interest in keeping him.

    Mack Ade said...

    Craig:

    Neither do I.

    I never understood the Reyes situation.

    Mack Ade said...

    TP:

    You are right... forgot those pesky relievers...

    Swimmer000 said...

    Overall I think Alderson has done a fine job. Mets fans have been impatient. We are building a team that will be financially sound and competitive for years to come. He did awesome with the wheeler trade and if he pulls this trade off, it will be an even better trade than wheeler. I feel he has put us in a position where eventually we can begin to trade top talent to gain top talent and our offensive players will come from those trades eventually. However, He screwed up royally with the not trading reyes and he has failed with making the bullpen ( the latter not being a totally easy job. Pagan absolutely netted us zero, considering he is one of the top centerfielders in the game. I feel like his regime has messed up the draft as well. He has signed some intriguing players but most of the people in our top 10 prospect list has been from the Omar era. With two picks in the top 15 we should have been players than Nimmo and Cecchini, good players but not sexy players that are worthy of an 11;13 pick respectively. We have pick 11 this year, lets see how this goes.

    The idea that our farm system will produce Wheeler, Montero, Mazzoni and Syndergaard along with a bunch of others over the next 2 years is outstanding though. What team cna say they are adding a top of the rotation pitcher 3 staight years.

    Lets get some long term offense now (Ross is not a long term solution) Niese to be traded next offseason or Santana to fetch us a young outfielder.

    Justin M. said...

    I think we will be able to fairly judge Sandy by Spring 2014. Going into our first year where we're supposed to contend under his leadership, we can look at Wheeler and TDA's first major league seasons and see what Sandy has done with the payroll flexibility he will have next offseason.

    To be in a situation where they won't have to spend big $ on starting pitching for years puts them in a very good position moving forward. Hopefully they keep a $100M+ payroll and can re-invest in their position players. In fact, their infield will probably be set also. So they'll have $50 Million to spend on outfielders next year!

    Anonymous said...

    If or when the deal is done Sandy has justified his exsistance in the mets front office, at least from a fans perspective.

    Some fans will still complain because they simply are blind or unwilling to see the mets are still at a hardship financially. I stated a week ago here once Myers was traded that Sandy probably had a handshake de in his back pocket that depended on other pitchers being taken out of the equation on the market.

    Others just kept screaming that Sandy couldn't keep up with younger more progressive Gm's. it's obvious that every once in a while, the lion shows who the king of the jungle. Sandy perfectly played this situation and many mets fans have egg on their face today.

    This gives the mets a chance which is something they didn't have once the market developed and they were going to be left standing without any upgrades due to their lack of financial might. Now, this year and next, this team is locked up at starting pitcher, catcher, first, third, SS, second, and most of their bullpen.

    It just got a lot easier to compete. They just need two outfielders.

    Mack Ade said...

    Swimmer:

    I'm going to target into the draft here today.

    First 2011 - frankly, I will probably never get over the Nimmo pick, even if he becomes a great player. You just don't let an employee (Chad McDonald) take this kind of risk with 13th overall pick in the draft. There was so much left on the table (Jose Fernandez,Jed Bradley, Jackie Bradley Jr. , Mikie Mahtook, Bkale Swihart, Alex Meyer)...

    SP Michael Fulmer (1st round) and Jack Leathersich (5th round) look like good picks, and both Logan Verrett (3rd) and Tyler Pill (4th)have showed promise, but the rest of the draft is still up in the air.

    The late drafting/over-slotting of Phillip Evans (15th) is proving out to be no more than a projected UT infielder.

    Mack Ade said...

    Sandy's 2012 draft:

    Again, like Nimmo, I hope Cecchini is a wonderful addition to this team, but how do you pass on Courtney Hawkins, James Ramsey, or Victor Roach, three outfielders that were still on the board?

    This is a classic Sandy-DePo-JP draft... lots of high school kids we know very little about... there is absolutely no way we can know what we have here for 2 more years...

    the mistake was all the dicking around with the underslotting. It cost them one of their top picks and a couple of other high schoolers i was in contact with that turned down the concept and were never picked by the Mets.

    Swimmer000 said...

    Honestly, if we do grab TDA and Syndergaard and they do not make it, i still would have made that trade a million times over.

    We are better today than we were last year or two years ago.

    Mack Ade said...

    Swimmer:

    This trade potentially gives you the best young catcher in the business... and one of the top potential SP3 candidates for your 2015 team.

    Overnight, TDA slots in as the #1 Mets prospect, followed by Wheeler and then, at #3, Syndergaard. Neither of these additions come at the expenese of any of the Mets top prospects.

    Swimmer000 said...

    Mack, I agree,

    I read recently that the mets have gotten back to getting good talent from the international free agent realm. What standout prospects did we sign, that seem to be studs like lupo

    Justin M. said...

    I especially am excited about Syndergaard after reading this:
    http://jaysprospects.com/2012/12/12/after-a-successful-2012-noah-syndergaard-focuses-on-getting-better-for-2013/

    Looks like he dominated after they let him start in the second half of the season. In the first half he was coming out of the pen in a piggyback system and had mixed results.

    "In the second half of the season, he started 12 of his 13 games and went 5-3 with a 1.65 ERA with 65 strikeouts and 16 walks"

    Mack Ade said...

    Now, let's look internationally...

    Omar Minaya was famous for his Latin signings and much of what is currently the Mets came out of his people, but Sandy and Company has signed a couple worth noting:

    Sandy's big sign this past off season was SS Ahmed Rosario. An early scouting report:

    "Rosario, 16, was one of the top performers at the MLB showcase in February in the Dominican Republic, where he went 4-for-7 with a double and a walk. He has grown in recent months and is now around 6-foot-3, 170 pounds with long limbs and a lanky build. Rosario is an average runner and some scouts think he may end up at third base, but right now scouts have said he shows terrific instincts at shortstop, with good hands, a strong arm and the ability to make the barehanded play.

    He has good bat speed and flashes promising raw power in batting practice that should continue to develop. He may have to make some adjustments at the plate. He has a leg kick that gets him out on his front foot against off-speed stuff, and some scouts think his stroke tends to get too uphill at times. Scouts praise Rosario for his makeup and background. His father is a lawyer who is expected to be influential in the signing, and Rosario is scheduled to graduate from high school shortly before July 2."

    He and Vincente Lupo are two prime international prospects

    Swimmer000 said...

    Justin that was an awesome read, Another Wheeler in the making.

    2012 - Harvey
    2013 - Wheeler
    2014 - Syndergaard

    Not many teams can do that....Thats not even mentioning our other top pitching prospects. Can we get some hittng please!!!!!!!! lmao love it.

    Anonymous said...

    We all were excited just having Fulmer and Montero ready by 2015 and now there won't be a slot for one of them if you keep Jon Niese. Also, Dillion Gee is becoming a solid number 4 or even a number 3. He's going to be expendable at some point.

    Listen, look at the Shields trade. It sound bad now, but in two years when all these kids are knocking at the door, the mets will have a big decision to make. Maybe you dangle Matt Harvey out there and the next Wil Myers is now headed towards queens. This deal opened up so many possibilities.

    Say Matt pitches excellently and yet by 2015 all three of the power right handers are showing the Mets they are all ready and project as number 2 or 3 starters. Who gets traded? The guy who'll get you an unbelievable package or these other guys who are cheaper, younger, and under control for longer? Getting Sydegaard really puts their future rotational plans over the top with power pitching.

    They're prospects and anything can happen, but wow. How could you not love this deal?

    Mack Ade said...

    a Jul. 2, 2011 signing:

    Venezuelan catcher Jose Garcia.

    A 16-year-old from San Felipe, Garcia was considered one of the top catchers this year. He's a 5-foot-11, 180-pound switch-hitter with a line-drive swing and good catch-and-throw skills.

    2012: 199-AB... .216/.283/.268/.551

    Swimmer000 said...

    I love the problems this trade has caused. Lets hurry up and get it done.

    Kevin Anderson said...

    I think one of the interesting things about this year was the lack of injuries to our current crop of pitching. Is that luck or organizational pitching philosophy? Also isn't Frank Viola heading to St. Lucie this year? How awesome is it going to be if he gets to work with Snydergaard and Fulmer again?

    Mack Ade said...

    Kevin:

    I can't get any confirmation on Viola going to St. Lucie but it would make sense.

    All his Savannah kiddies are there and he can join the home office brain trust in extended camp

    Michael Loos said...

    I just want this deal done!! Cant wait anymore!

    Greg b said...

    Does anyone hear who the prospect we give Toronto?

    Mack Ade said...

    Greg B:

    I assume that it will be an intermediate prospect pitcher, like Fulmer, Pill, or Verrett

    Anonymous said...

    Mack, this is Mike F., by the way.

    OK, so let's say Dickey signs his extension before the deadline (shouldn't take long since he already gave the Mets an idea of what he wanted.....Toronto wouldn't go through all this and balk at his demands) and we get our catcher of the future and a nice arm in the process.

    What about the OF? Do you think that crafty Sandy could swoop in and grab Bourn to play CF??? He is pricey, but he would fit into Sandy's plans....i.e. he would help now AND in the future. It would solve CF and the leadoff spot for the foreseeable future and we know the Mets still have some $$ for this year.

    I say go for it! Would be better then someone like Nyjer Morgan or even Cody Ross, right?

    David Rubin said...

    The funny thing is that when, those many months ago, I posted here about possible trades for Dickey with the Jays and said perhaps a deal of Syndergaard and d'Arnaud and Gose for Dickey and Thole and a top quality Met pitching prospect, I got ripped to shreds. Now it's happening, minus Gose but with Buck, and hopefully Sandy will get the credit for making a great deal and holding out to make it!!
    I have also heard that there was a potential 2nd deal for Gose, but that it's not on the frontburner anymore. So who knows what other "tricks" Sandy is getting ready to spring on us?! Happy Holidays to Mets fans everywhere!

    Nick M. said...

    Where you guys projecting d'Arnaud and Syndergaard start the season? Maybe let d'Arnaud stay in AAA for the first month or two since he went down early last year with that injury. Syndergaard going to St. Lucie or somewhere else?

    Anonymous said...

    St. Lucie is extremely crowded and syndergaard dominated single A last year. I'd push him to Binghamton

    Mack Ade said...

    Mike:

    Signing Bourne would cost the Mets a first round pick and I can't see Sandy doing this.

    No, walk away with baseball's best young catcher, a possible SP3, and an overpaid one-year backup catcher.

    Isn't there still around 10mil in the till?

    Mack Ade said...

    Nick:

    D''A will play AAA for the first month so his arbitration years don't kick in early

    St. Lucie is full up and someone needs to be bumped to Binghamton

    Mack Ade said...
    This comment has been removed by the author.
    Anonymous said...

    I can't see trading Fulmer in this deal. It's like trading the same player for one another. I could see a Mazzoni, Gorski, Verret, Pill, or one of the Cyclone Pitchers. Lara, Gnoa, Mateo.

    Fulmer to me just don't make sense. I was hoping they'd be able to throw in Valdespine just to wash their hands of him. There's so many possibilities when it's non elite prospect, because whose elite? Wheeler, maybe Flores. They have a ton of great prospects, but most won't be considered elite until they develop more and people see the results.

    Tapia, Arod, Fulmer, Montero, Nimmo, Checchini... They are good, but not elite. Other then Checchini who can't be traded, all are possibilities, but I think it's Gorski.

    Mack Ade said...

    Anonymous:

    The key word here is 'non-prospect'.

    Most of the Mets 'prospects' have already graduated... I can't see Flores being a throw-in.

    You also don't want to lose Mateo. He and Montero could be the top pitchers in the system past Wheeler and Synder...

    I have no idea who it will be but, since the team lost a pitcher, you assume they will want one back

    Charles said...

    Okay, but how does that makes sense for the Mets?

    "Okay, Alex, give me the big righty and ill throw in...hmm, let me see, uh...my big righty?"

    "Non prospect" wasn't the phrase. It was "non elite prospect". To me, your best minor league hitter would count as elite for the Mets. I could see throwing in Gorski to sweeten the pot, but Flores would hurt. I still would do it in a second for what's coming back.

    Anonymous said...

    Pelf just signed with twins...will probably win Cy young next yr

    Mack Ade said...

    Charles:

    what makes sense is you wait to find out who the person traded is before commenting on "him"

    Charles said...

    Haven't we all commented on possible trade candidates all off season? Kind of what has been going on for two months now and what you've done as well. Always good to talk with you;)

    Justin M. said...

    I'd much rather Gorski than any of the lower level guys. Losing a Fulmer/Montero/Mateo would sting a tiny bit. Looking forward to what these guys will do in the higher levels.

    What I'm curious about now is whether we will see TDA and Wheeler up in the majors on April 21st, or will they wait out the Super 2 period and hold them till June? I suspect Wheeler will be up before June only if the rotation is desperate. I think TDA gets the call at the end of April because the catching situation is guaranteed to be desperate.

    Mack Ade said...

    Charles:

    Taking things too personal gain.

    Just making statement.

    I'm going to wait out the process

    Mack Ade said...

    Justin: Wheeler will no be up early and justify Super 2... this trade put 2013 on the shelf.

    And Montero,and Tapia are considered "top" prospcts

    Justin M. said...

    OK, so Wheeler up in June.

    TDA up April 21st or June?

    Justin M. said...

    I read an article today from when Strasburg was about to get called up. Mentioned that the team could save $18 million dollars by not letting him become Super 2 eligible. I know neither of our guys are likely to be "Strasburg-good", but it's something to think about. Two months. $18 million.

    Mack Ade said...

    Right now, if deal does through:

    Mets gain: Buck: $6.5.mil
    D'A: arounf $450K
    Synder: around $450K

    total: #7.4mil

    Toronoto gains: Dickey: $5mil
    Thole: $3mil

    total: $8.0mil

    Anonymous said...

    Damn, all that mystery prospect talk and it's Nickeaus!!! Holy crap did Sandy rob the Jays!

    I've read so much crap about Alderson over the past year about how horrible a GM he is...

    How he's constantly misjudging the market.

    How he can't keep up with younger more progressive Gm's that today's game is turning to

    How he refuses to pick a plan and go with it.

    All I can say is that this man might just have taught a few lessons with this deal. Not only does he get the prospects, but in openly saying he wants to sign RA, he is able to drag out negotiations and get his star player to drop his asking price so much that another team took notice and understood the extreme value RA had in today's market; enabling Alderson to get that much more in a deal.

    I've read a lot of crap that Sandy would never get that top prospect and he was so blind to reality and it really pissed me off. Just look at what was accomplished here...amazin'!

    Mack's Mets © 2012