12/23/12

'The War Room' - OF

42 comments


Is there any other subject out there than the outfield?

I don't see this going away in 2012. Everybody will be on holiday break next week and we'll probably still be talking about this next week.

As you noticed yesterday, I have started to analyze all of the other 29 teams with the goal to target players the Mets might have a chance of going after. It also is designed to give all of you an increased knowledge of outfielders in general.

I am working today from 7am-3pm, so I don't expect to be on line until around 3:30pm.

Please talk it up.

Mack

42 comments:

Jeff C said...

Your site has a great job of evaluating potential OF's for the Mets to target. I was originally in the let's get Cody Ross or Coco Crisp type of player category, but have started to change my tune a little. I think it would make more sense to try to trade a Mets highly rated blocked prospect, Wilmer Flores for another team's comparable rated OF prospect. I am not an expert on prospects, but looking at some of the Top 50 lists I came up with the following possibilities:
Yankees: they have a long term 3B need so how about Flores for Tyler Austin?
Arizona: Flores for Adam Eaton
Rockies: Flores for David Dahl
Astros: Flores for George Springer
If the push is for 2014, then let's go get a high ceiling OF who is close to MLB ready. Then use the 2013 budget to sign Hairston, get some bullpen arms, and another SP.

Anonymous said...

Flores needs to show even more pop to get anyone to make that trade. Besides, trading prospect for prospect is tricky and rare.

Neither team is usually willing to part with a prospect knowing they're just getting another prospect back,. Fear that the one they traded becomes a star and the one they got falls flat is the reason these deals don't happen. GMs want ML pieces in return for prospects in case the prospect becomes a star, they need ML guys to offset the lose and be a legit excuse for why they traded the next homegrown hero.

The price for FA have skyrocketed. The Mets can't or won't get into that situation. Cody Ross for 26 million! The new tv deals have made this the price of doing business; I just don't see the Wilponzis jumping in.

Trade is a legit route but that too has a high price. This is where getting lucky comes in and I wouldn't expect any big names at this point or later. 2014-15....be there!

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Swimmer000 said...

Jeff C has targeted a few interesting names but those prospects mentioned are all better prospects or ranked higher than Flores, so they are not the farest of trades.

Prospect for Prospect trades do not happen often which sucks in my opinion

The free agent class for next year is underwhelming becuase of the age of those prospects, and this will be a continuing trend in the FA market for the forseeable future.

The Mets should make a gamble and dangle an assortment of their highly regarded pitching prospects for a close to MLB ready prospect such as Eaton who has showed sick numbers and a tantilizing obp skill set.

This group should include Syndergaard ( I know I know ) Fulmer, Tapia, any of the BK rotation from last year and Mateo.

For players such as Eaton, Jackie Bradley Jr, Hamilton, Castellanos, Liriano and maybe a few other names, Reality is, there isnt too many OF prospects of any worthiness that is close ot mlb ready or actually attaniable.

Astros will not give up Springer IMO. ANyone else is a tough trade.

I think Flores and Tapia could potentially get you a deal with Boston done.

Remember we cant give garbage and expect something in return, we must look at the flaws of our players and see if the trade makes sense for the other team.

Swimmer000 said...

Aaron Hicks looks like a potential target as well. He is very toolsy but has struggled to put it together. He is a center fielder, gets on base and steals bases. He has a little pop can reduce his strike out numbers but a trade of Flores who can DH for them and Tapia or Mazzoni could get it done for them, potentially.

Swimmer000 said...

Grant Green and Bryce Brentz are also head liners. I'd also look to other players that could be switched to the outfield. Maybe someone like kolton wong could play centerfeild. Idk.

Reese said...

Let's not forget the Cardinals' Taveras, too.

Swimmer000 said...

I didnt add Taveras because he is very close to MLB ready and he is the creme of the crop. St. Louis would ask for a King's Ransom in return for their beloved right fielder of the future.

Yankees have a trio of top outfield prospects but none of them are close.

Justin M. said...

Bryce Brentz had very similar numbers to Flores last season in the minors. Brentz K's much more, but he actually has a position to play. Not sure if Boston has a need for a corner infielder, but I could see this being a good swap next offseason. I anticipate Flores hitting well in AAA this year and his value should go up a bit.

Justin M. said...

For this season, I think it's Hairston. If they can't come to terms with him then they won't make any OF additions that are more significant than Cowbell.

Swimmer000 said...

It will be very interesting how Flores could potentially blossom this year. Not even inflated numbers from vegas butjust building on his approach from last year. Maybe we can trade him in july for someone that fits our needs better

TP said...

Maybe we can coax Willie MAys out of retirement. We do need a CF.

John said...

I think that some of the prospects mentioned will be difficult to trade for due to various reasons. I would love Tavares but he is so close to the majors and would cost a tremendous amount. Dahl would be a great get too but he had a strong showing and is a long ways away.

I think getting someone like Springer or Brentz would be a logical move. I think it would be difficult to get a top 25 talent for Flores plus others but I think it is realistic to think that they can get a close outfield prospect who has a chance to be a solid regular.

Mack Ade said...

Hi guys... just got home from work so I missed most of this dance...

I heard about Nick 70 million dollar Swisher on the radio... unbelievable...

I have an evaluation of Cleveland posting tomorrow so I'm going to have to go change that...

be back later

Mack

Mack Ade said...

Jeff:

I like your targeting Flores. He is the top everyday Mets prospect and has no place in this organization.

The Mets are currently the only team in baseball that hasn't signed a free agent this year.

Hairston tells reporters he wants to stay a Met and they still can't get a deal done.

However... the d-Arnaud deal proved to me that Alderson knows what he's doing here.

I'm going to wait this one out and comment when the process is over.

Mack Ade said...

I will be evaluating every team's outfield over the next two weeks...

tomorrow: Cubs, CWS, Reds, Indians

Xmas: day off

I'm jus sayin said...

I say we go for broke and put together a packaga of Niese/Parnell and a prospect in the 6-15 range for Justin Upton. He is truly a perfect fit and at 25 can be our right fielder for 7-8 years. He's a middle of the order rh thumper that is athletic and as a bonus- he has a solid relationship with our teams best player, David Wright.

I'd like to see us go "all in" here and make the push for a core player!

Mack Ade said...

I'm Just Sayin:

I have no problem with your "all in" attitude, but I'm not sure the Mets have enough...

Let's see... Wilmer Flores... Jon Niese... Jeurys Familia (or one of the Brooklyn kids like Robles...)

Mejia and Heffner pitch SP4 and 5 until Wheeler is ready...

1-7: Tejada, Murphy, Wright, Upton, Davis, d'Arnaud, Duda

Yeah... I like it

Justin M. said...

I think the Blue Jays provided a good example this offseason on how to correctly time going all-in. And the Royals showed the opposite.

Unfortunately the Mets are closer to the Royals than the Jays at the moment.

I'm jus sayin said...

Maybe "all in" was poor wording on my part.. IF we have a shot at a young athletic power hitting OF and the D-backs like Niese and Co. enough I think it's a move that benefits us now as well as down the road for years to come.

I would prefer for Flores to not be the minor leaguer going back cause I picture him as a far better option than Duda in left. Wilmer can really square up on the ball and is STILL young..

Charles said...

I think that's insane. Niese is supremely more valuable then Upton. He's had better numbers each yr and after what the rays just got for Shields, you'd be raping yourself in that deal.

Face facts, the mets are not ready to compete and have awesome starting pitcher prospects in the pipeline. You need to wait two years, let the cream rise to the top and then go all in. Trading Niese, gee, or whoever else holds the highest value. Niese is lefty, great, improving, and under control for years. In two years they'll get the next Wil Myers for him and still have a dominant rotation.

Mack Ade said...

Charles, now you want the Mets to wait another 2 years?

Charles said...

Mack, what I'm saying is that Niese shouldn't be traded until their pitching prospects shake out and they know what they have.

Say only Wheeler reaches his ceiling and the rest all become bullpen guys...well, Niese shouldn't be expendable, he should be a well protected arm. But, in two years, if Fulmer, Tapia, Syndergaard, and DeGrom all are getting outs in the Mets rotation, suddenly Niese becomes the most expensive arm. He'd also be cheap considering today's market and therefor a much valued commodity.

They'd easily get a Wil Myers type prospect. Why trade him now if your only getting back an outfielder who will certainly not help this team make the playoffs this year? Tradi g Niese after trading RA would take 33 wins and over 400 innings off the team. It would put the Mets back farther then they are now and they'd be at least another two years from competing.

By keeping him, you have a very solid and young rotation nearly set for 2014 and with the extra 50 million they SHOULD have to spend next offseason, the outfield needs should easily be rectified.

Charles said...

No brainer to me.

Mack Ade said...

Charles, you're starting to sound like me...

Anonymous said...

2 years? Fuck that. Hell with two wild cards, if we can get a good outfielder in here, I could see us giving a run this year. Like Mack said trade a guy like Flores and some of this pitching depth and turn it into a guy like Dexter Fowler or Alex Gordon, balancing our assets.

Charles said...

You're crazy to think Flores has that type of value. He doesn't unless he hits 30 hrs this season. The Mets even with Gordon would make playoffs. They'd still need another outfielder and more bullpen help. Who knows what Santana is going to give you.

There's too much unknown to start trading away key prospects; especially when the Mets have money issues and need cheap players moving forward. I understand the lack of patience and a will to win now, but if this off season has taught anything, it's that pitchers are Gold now and the Mets have a fortunes worth in their system, it's just not ready to pay off.

Yes Flores is a top ten prospect....in our system. In baseball he's a the bottom of the top 100, maybe even after that. He's a good hitter with average power. BUT, he's still young and doesn't strike out. Playing in Vegas will add to his numbers across the board and add to his confidence. Trading him now is selling low and that's crazy when the Mets will not contend for a wild card this year.

2014....let it sink in folks. That's when they're out of the Santana Bay and Fransisco deals, that's when they'll have money to burn. I could see them possibly trading for someone with a pulse between now and then, but don't think for a second that Flores has a lot of value out there yet. You'd have to add much more to any deal that involves a difference maker and that would just be a bad business decision considering all the different problems facing the Mets right now.

Charles said...

Mets with Gordon would NOT make playoffs. I mess that part up...see above

TP said...

Agree with Charles regarding Niese. Gordon would be a nice acquisition if they can get him without giving up too much. I think they need speed and tablesetters even more than RH power. That and they need to be thinking about D one of these years.

I'm jus sayin said...

I would trade Niese with a few reasonable parts for Justin Upton 10 times in a row if I could and would never think twice about it. I appreciate that you want to wait for the "next will myers" but maybe you've forgotten the level of prospect that Justin Upton was, or that he is only 25 years old now.

Niese is 26 as an example and plays a position of organzational strength, unlike Upton who is also a year younger. I've heard Upton called "the best 20 year old I've ever seen" by scouts before so lets not diminish what his ceiling is. With Wheeler on the door step and the Mets having a volume of exciting power arms on the horizon it seems like a no-brainer to me.

Fortify the middle of our line up while u have the chance to. We lose nothing by picking up a highly talented young slugger in exchange for a number 3 type lefty imo. Nimmo is a lot further away then our pitchers are and Ross types at 3 years 8 mil per aren't exactly appetizing. Nick Swisher is making what Upton makes for the love of God.

Sandy strikes me as patient but ready to jump in and grab the prize if the "price is right" so to speak. Justin is a core player and fits the description of what we need both now and going forward. As long as Arizona will do something centered around Niese, we should make the deal.

It's only a no if they demand that any of Harvey,Wheeler,Syndergaard,Nimmo be involved imo...

Mack Ade said...

I re-thought this out overnight.

I'm not trading Niese.

I frankly don't care what you do with Nimmo. I reserve opinion on him until I see him play.

Justin M. said...

Niese is an incredibly interesting case to me in 2013. In 2012 he put up a WHIP of 1.17. In 2009-2011 he put up 1.40, 1.46, 1.41 and dealt with injuries.

2013 is going to be a pivotal year for this dude. Does he develop into that #2 that he has the potential to be? It seems to me that everyone forgets his replacement level production before 2012: 0.2, -0.2, 0.2 bWAR before putting up a 3.2 in 2012.

That being said, I think you keep him because of his contract. You have him locked up through his age 31 season for a very reasonable amount. Want to think about what a 31 year old good lefty starter will cost in 2018? A hell of a lot more than his $11M option.

Mack Ade said...

Justin, there is no pressure on Niese.

The pressure is on Wheeler and Harvey to become the SP1/2 as advertised.

I love Niese as a 3

Justin M. said...

Even though he probably won't be our opening day starter, you can make a serious case that Niese is the ace in 2012. Santana coming off injury and some really poor starts, Harvey only has 59 ML innings.

I'm sure Niese feels some pressure this year.

I'm jus sayin said...

I gotta say, I'm new to this site and I'm really enjoying the logical intelligent points that are being made.

That being said, I will still trade Niese and reasonable parts for Upton until the cows come home. Niese finishes his contract making 10 and 10.5 mil while Upton is making 14 mil.

Should Niese reach his potential he'll be making 15-17 mil per year on a 3-4 year deal after that contract concludes. Now what if Upton realizes his?? What kind of value does he carry if he's good for 30-40 Hr's and 90+ RBI annually? 17-23 sounds about right to me and I bet coming off of last year(sub par for him) if we dealt for him we could extend him at 15 per for another 4-5 years so he's here to stay. At least in his prime anyways.

He's a stud ladies and gentleman, bottom line. I can only pray that Sandy sees it the same way...

Justin M. said...

The big issue for me is you get Niese for 6 years $45M (plus whatever other prospects you would have to trade) -or- Upton for 3 years $38.5M.

The Mets are too cash-strapped to trade away bargains. Niese has more value to the Mets than most other teams.

Mack Ade said...

Just Sayin:

Thanks for the compliments about the site... it's simple here... we're all adults and approach our fandom that way...

Is fandom a word?

Anyway... you stick to your Uptoon plea... no one around here doesn't want him on this team. We just have no desire to lose one of the few key players around right now

Mack Ade said...

Justin:

I've been preaching "2014" for two years... and, my 2014 rotation has always been Harvey, Wheeler, and Niese as the first three... from there (without Dickey) Gee moves up to SP4 and either Montero or Mejia moves into SP5

I want the Mets to use a little bit of 2013 as a pre-cursor to 2014... perfect example would be Mejia... let him pitch SP5 behind Gee... give him 20 starts... he's been around long enough and I don't need this money spent on some retread... imagine if he's everything as advertised and he moves up to SP4 in 2014, followed by Montero?

Charles said...

Jus sayin':

I'm not waiting for the next Myers. I saying that this isn't Omar's mets. The 140 mill mets. It's the Sandy mets where they only get 100 mill if they're lucky. Upton does nothing for this team now. Niese is a proven starter, a great starter and on an uptick in performance. Other the Gee, nobody Hoping to get a rotational spot is a proven commodity.

Justin was a great prospect but hasn't shown much in the majors away from his home ballpark. Niese is a 80 mill pitcher in today's market signed at half that rate. I honestly wouldn't trade them one for one and you want to throw in prospects which is insane considering the mets finances.

I get wanting a 25 yr old outfielder with potential. I'm saying in a year or two when the mets actually might have a lights out rotation, they'll also hopefully have two expendable arms with no spot to take. In today's market, you'll get that outfielder and then some.

Remember, this is only because if the Wilpons money trouble. They've made cheap, controllable, young ML players and prospects absolutely vital to future success. Upton has 3 yrs left on his contract and I can't say for certain the mets will be competitive in that window. At least not in the short term after you've traded away both RA and Niese. That rotational void is too great to overcome in three years without money to spend.

How can you argue with that...? Really?

I'm jus sayin said...

Well, it's not going to be too tough lol..

Are you suggesting that number 3/4 starters are worth young power hitting middle of the order sluggers? Especially when your organization has several candidates to come in and replace said 3/4 starter.

Syndergaard(granted he's young) has dynamite stuff and stats to match throughout his minor league career. He is essentially the SAME CALIBER prospect as Harvey/Wheeler. Santana and Francisco are off the books next year and Bay is mostly off as well.

Simply put, Upton is more valuable than Niese. I don't believe Niese will ever become a #2 starter and see him as more of a 3/4 type. Upton on the other hand profiles as a 4/5 hitter imo and I just can't remember a 3/4 starter getting dealt for a 4/5 hitter. Can you?

The difference imo is not only in Upton being the greater talent, it's that our organization is becoming stacked with arms and offers no OF ready to contribute unless Flores ends up being able to handle LF.

We will have money to spend in 2014/2015 and Syndergaard should be able to help by mid 2014 if he maintains his current pace/success. Not to mention the plethora of talented latin kids that we have on the mound as well.

We could sign Josh Johnson or Nolasco. Ubaldo,Garza,Hughes,Haren etc. They will all be available to replace Niese if it's needed. We will have the money available even under our current restraints.

I only offer Niese/Parnell and a prospect because I assume that despite the popular opinion of this board, Upton carries MORE value than Niese. He certainly does in my eyes anyways.

Just pull up both of their career stats, you will see that Niese has ONE legit year where as Justin has broke 25 HR's twice at the mlb level and he's just 25 years old. I love Wheeler,d'Arnaud and Syndergaard and feel Sandy did an exceptional job in both deals.

He got us 2 arms that are SUPERIOR to Niese in deals, flipping Niese to answer a HUGE question in the of and batting order should be a no-brainer..

Charles said...

Upton has never shown he could hit fourth. He has shown however that he can't hit for much power or average away from Arizona. Yes, Niese's numbers last season were nearly the same as Shields and the Rays got the best power hitting talent in the minors, plus other young arms.

If the mets didn't trade RA, I'd say okay, make the deal, but only strait up. Look at the market for pitchers, it's insanely high. Jon Niese could easily get a 5/75 contract right now. He's getting better every year and this season should show how valuable he really is.

Upton has regressed and is always on the trading block. You could get a hitter to give you numbers like his for a lot cheaper then you can for a pitcher like Niese. Espn just did a story about the three unknown aces in the majors and yes, Niese was one of them.

The Mets have great pitching prospects. Wheeler, Fulmer, Snydergaard, Montero, Famia, and even Mejia. They only need two to reach their ceilings to fill out a great rotation by 2015. However, you just never know and because the Mets don't have money to spend you just can't trade away a young cheap starter that's a sure thing.

Even right now, if you put Upton on this team and keep the starting rotation intact, they still lose 85 games. Now, keep Upton but take Niese away, they lose 90/95. It just don't make sense now that they've already traded RA. I think we'll have to agree to disagree, but nice debate.

Merry Christmas...and God bless.

Mack Ade said...

Charles:

I agree with you... and I'm glad you mentioned Familia.

This is a perfect example of someone like Deolis Guerra or Mikail Cleto... guys that just didn't make it.

I'm not sure about Familia anymore and, the info I got near the end of last season is that the Mets coaches have thrown their hands up over his lack of consistency.

THIS IS WHY YOU DON'T TRADE SOMEONE THAT ALREADY HAS PROVEN THEY CAN COMPETE AT THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL for a prospect...

because... many prospects never make it.

"Wheeler, Fulmer, Snydergaard, Montero, Familia, Mejia" sounds good but as of today... # of MLB starters: 0

Niese - number of pro starters: 1

Mack's Mets © 2012