I
spent this morning visiting a number of sites, including Cot Baseball and,
particularly, the current Mets salary page.[i]
They’ve removed the 2014 numbers and, without them listed, the Mets page looks
very simple. Only four members of the current team are under any form of
extended contract, one of which is Bartolo
Colon ($11mil/2015) who
reached free agency in a year.
The
other three are well known amongst Mets fans… Jon
Niese ($7.05mil/2015,
$9.05mil/2016, team option/2017)… Curtis
Granderson ($16mil/yr/2015
& 2016, $15mil/2017), and David
Wright, a contract with
six years left on it that starts in 2015 at $20mil and declines to $12mil in
2020.
I
also read a number of articles about how the progress of Wright’s should is
actually improving[ii] and how we should all
look forward to him returning to punching out the kind of numbers we have grown
to become accustomed to, but I have to tell you. I read these articles… then
stared at the stat line he put out this last season[iii]…
and then went back to Cot to remind myself of just how much the team still owes
this guy and I started to realize that this could easily become the worst long term
contract in the history of either the Omar
Minaya or Sandy Alderson era.
Look
at the four year period of 2011-2014, where Wright is supposedly at his prime
(28-31/years old). We’re talking a combined 60-HRs and 275-RBIs… compare this
to the four year period of 2005-2008 (22-25/yrs old)… 126-HRs and 449-RBIs.
It’s
one thing to look at this declining trend. It’s another to remind ourselves
that there is six more years left on his contract.
Don’t
get me wrong… no one loves The Captain move than me, but let’s hope for some
extended good health here. Otherwise, you may never see a Mets contract past
two years ever again.
Joel
Sherman speculated
that the Mets would be a great lading zone for OF Yazmany Tomas[iv] Sherman said –
The Mets
have shown an aversion for spending on players they know a lot more about than
Tomas, who could cost $100 million or more on a six- or seven-year deal. But
here is the question I would ask: Are the Mets ever getting in the game or not?
Sherman
knows this is never going to happen. $100mil? Six or seven years? What are you
talking about, Willis?
Beyond
the Box Score @BtBScore - Highest first-pitch ball%’s in #MLB in 2014
(500 pitches min.) - N. Martinez (47.2%) - T. Lincecum (45.5) - J. De la Rosa
(45.2) - Z.
Wheeler (45.0)
@JimBowden_ESPN on Mets: "I'd be
very careful not to trade the young arms...They built that strength I'd like
them to take advantage of it"
From
“Five Players The Mets Should Pursue”[v]
Josh
Reddick - As I’ve
broken down before, Josh Reddick would be a relatively cheap acquisition with
extremely high upside. He’s hit as many as 32 home runs and driven in as many
as 85 runs. Reddick is a lefty with power and speed, and he’s batted from
second to seventh in the Oakland A’s lineup. He’s solid in the clutch, unafraid
of the big moments and an excellent right fielder with a strong arm. He’s had a
few seasons shortened by injury, partly due to his daredevil-style athleticism
in the field — but if he can stay healthy, his defense alone would make him
worth a shot. Best of all, he’s only 27, and his current contract is only $2.7
million. Think of him as Matt den Dekker with a
stronger arm and more of a Major League track record. As for den Dekker, he’d
make solid trade bait as part of a package deal — or the Mets could stash him
while he cultivates his own interesting upside in triple-A or as a fourth
outfielder. The A’s wouldn’t give Reddick away for peanuts, but the Mets
wouldn’t have to sell the farm, either.
Infielder
Asdrubal Cabrera (Washington Nationals) – New
York Mets. This is it Mets fans, your big signing, Asdrubal Cabrera. The Mets
are interested in two obvious positions: left field and shortstop. Regardless
of how the front office and ownership phrases it, they will not be spending
much this offseason. This is not to say Cabrera would be a poor signing, as he
is at the very least a stopgap at shortstop, with flexibility to stick at
second base. The Nationals might be in the hunt to retain him, but there is no
definite answer at this point in time. At the very least, the Cabrera signing
will
Possible
Tulo trade to Mets - The match that immediately comes to mind with those
parameters, of course, is the Mets. There’s an immediate need for a shortstop,
they have two rotations worth of starters, with Matt Harvey on the fast track
back from Tommy John surgery. What’s not to like? They’re even bringing the
fences in again. The problem is that whole money thing, especially if Dick Monfort isn’t willing to provide financial
assistance. The Mets are still working their way back from being swept up in
the Bernie Madoff fiasco, and while revenue (and payroll) should start going up
at some point soon, taking on Tulowitzki AAV of $20 million may be a tall order
for almost any team. The Mets are also reportedly loath to part with their
young pitching. The aforementioned stockpiling strategy seems to be their plan.
If they did trade for Tulowitzki, it would undoubtedly involve Noah Syndergaard, and one of Rafael
Montero and Steven Matz
. There
would probably be some sort of position player involved too. That’s a genuine
blockbuster for sure.[i]
Baseball
Draft Ga Ga - In 2005, the Red Sox minor league system was ranked 21st among
the 30 teams. Their top six prospects that year were: 1. Hanley Ramirez, 2. Brandon
Moss, 3. Jonathan Papelbon, 4. Jon Lester, 5. Anibal Sanchez,
6. Dustin Pedroia. They’ve since gone on to
accumulate 164.4 WAR. The Chicago Cubs were ranked 11 spots ahead of the Red
Sox, at No. 10. Their top prospects were; 1. Brian
Dopirak, 2. Felix Pie, 3. Ryan Harvey, 4. Angel Guzman,
5. Billy Petrick, 6. Renyel
Pinto. They ended up being worth minus 1.1 WAR.[ii]
9 comments:
Josh Reddick: That is where the calls get tough for a GM. He had one excellent power year, and 3 other decent but lower power ones. Is he a clear-cut upgrade over Matt den Dekker? Hard to say. It’s entirely possible Matt could be superior to Josh in 2015. More likely it is vice versa. Matt will in Wilpons' mind outperform Reddick in "cheap". That may be good enough for them, along with a righty hitting platoon guy to offset Matt.
Another place for GMs to get the willies is working out possible prospect-depleting trades for a Tulo or a Kemp, and taking on perhaps only a portion of their salary, but still a huge commitment. The Wright Uncertainty Effect (will a guy lose it or not?) always lurks with these big contracts – and if a guy (hopefully not in Wright’s case) goes into permanent decline, then you’re stuck with these guys big time.
So I think our GM will continue on a conservative route, under the guise of it is better to be “wrong cheap” than “mega bucks wrong”. Go Cheap And Hope For The Breaks is the theme, I fear.
Morning Mack:
Hope you had a great weekend?
We talked over the past seasons about the San Fran model!
I still believe this is how Sandy is operating. The core is the pitching and the everyday players will come and go. Saying that,i don't think you'll see Sandy trading away pitching depth for expensive players,like Tulo Kemp or Cargo? But a guy like Reddick I see happening. I'd still like to see some of the younger players signed threw Arb years though. Like Lagares Wheeler Duda ,same as what Niese did a few years ago.
Take care
Steve
Anmon---if the GIANTS MODEL resembles the Giants $147 million 2104 payroll, Count Me In!!!!
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/salaries/_/name/sf/san-francisco-giants
Hey mack, in the broken record department, I guess we'll see soon enough where the fences get moved in to, but going back to David Wright, here is a guy that hits plenty of balls to dead center and right center. The fences coming in for right center will help him, hopefully.
Moving dead center in 6 or 7 feet would also have helped him, perhaps more than the Right Center move in, with little added construction costs. Not doing CF too when you owe David $107 million over the next 6 years is just not prudent.
He was heavily penalized by fence depths since 2009, this would have been the chance to really help him out. Yet, I also have to blame David, who at least publically is not bringing up the CF depth issue.
Maybe he'll sneak out 3 or 4 more in right field due to the fixes. I'll bet 7 feet shorter in CF would add 3 to 5 more. He'd look rejuvenated, just based on the dimensions.
Fences are likely now cast in stone, dimension-wise, but the Mets can still break out new blueprints and shave several feet off of dead center. It is not too late.
Mack
Wrights first numbers the Mets had hitting with no pitching, and played their games at Shea. She's was a whole lot better for his opposite field swing.
The second scenario he moves to Citifield and gets no protection in the lineup and gets injured a couple of times.
I feel he isn't on too much of a decline factor if you consider who is protecting him in the lineup and ball park factor. If you put a Kemp/ Braun type in this lineup he will finally get some pitches to hit. I also feel and hope his shoulder does get better. I am so surprised not at you but how so many Mets fans on coming down on our franchise player. He will Wright the ship, lol
Not sure on the dimensions, but hopefully it will add more to the Met HR totals than the opposition and not sure how many others DW would hit if they moved in CF, but I would prefer and extra few feet in CF because I think JLag gets to more balls out there than the other team's CF. I think it was here yesterday that showed the Giants (and Angels) payroll v WAR and clearly the biggest contributors were the lower paid players, so not sure a team has to get up in the stratosphere to get more wins. I think the Mets are close and would prefer additional patience to a splash signing to appease the mobs. I don't see any of the FA being solutions and the days of taking a flyer on an unproven Cuban are over for the Mets. I am sure that I am in the minority, but I would actually start the season with what they currently have and look to make an acquisition mid year to fill holes. I think that MDD could be a valuable starting CF on other teams, so if he is successful in the ABs they are looking to give him, he would be an attractive piece in a package. I just don't see any difference makers and the Mets are already saddled with DW and Grandy contracts, so adding one more would likely limit any other additions, like Upton or Heyward next year.
Anon Joe F
Guys -
well, I hope you are all right about Wright
Build the Arms and buy the bats
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