Tom Brennan - A CALL TO ARMS - VOLUME 4 - ERIK GOEDDEL

A CALL TO ARMS – VOLUME 4 – ERIK GOEDDEL  by Tom Brennan
 
Arms, arms - baby, we have more arms in the Mets system than an enclave of octopuses! 

In Volumes 1, 2, and 3, I wrote about 3 starting pitching prospects other than the dynamic prospect duo of Thor Syndergaard and Steve Matz, namely Logan Verrett, Matt Bowman, and Tyler Pill. 

Them fellers right there would be considered top starting prospects in almost any major league organization, but here?  I rank them 10th, 11th, and 12th in terms of starting pitchers already in the majors, or close to being so.

A dandy list of Colon, Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Montero, Thor, and Matz (that’s 9), followed by the aforementioned 3, bringing us to 12.

Surely there can’t be any more guys that are close to being big-league-starter-ready?  Au contraire.  I can think of 3 more, actually, who are either a step below the above 3, in the writer’s opinion, or a bit further away in terms of development.  Erik Goeddel, Greg Peavey, and Gabe Ynoa are those 3.  Getting us to 15.

And there are more than 15 – just continue to read my later editions.

Of the 3, let me start with Mr. Goeddel, who had the pleasure of actually pitching for the major league club this September, and doing pretty well at it, going 6 2/3 innings with just 3 hits, 2 runs and 6 Ks.  Hey, and in his last 4 outings, how does no hits in 5 innings sound?

Anyway, I have him below the #10 thru #12 guys (Verrett, Bowman and Pill) as a starter, though, because he has not put up #’s to quite match those 3 in his minor league tenure.

Actually, considering from whence he has come, he has outperformed.  The 6’3”, 190 righty was drafted in the 24th round by the Mets as a 21 year old out of UCLA, so 721 guys got drafted before him in 2010.  But he is reported to have signed over-slot at $500,000, so the Mets saw a high ceiling in him and sought to lure him out of returning to college, successfully, I might add.

In his career to date, he has been in 115 minor league games, starting 61. Lagely a starter through 2013, he became a reliever exclusively in 2014, with 49 appearances for the Las Vegas AAA affiliate, and 6 for the Mets.  He suffered from the AAA hits-are-flying-everywhere effect, with a 5.37 ERA and 77 hits in 63 2/3 innings this year, while striking out a man per inning.  He put up a high WHIP too.

Why include a reliever in this starter’s list?  Because, having started 61 games in his career, he can certainly be used in either
capacity.

Career-wise, it is clear to see 20-20 when it comes to Goeddel – that’s his career win-loss record.  He has a career 1.41 WHIP, an ERA of 4.02, and 357 Ks in 384.2 innings, the latter being an impressive stat. Success at lower levels (a 3.21 ERA in 2011 and 2012) slipped to a 4.68 ERA in 2013 and 2014 in AA and AAA, respectively.

I looked into Goeddel's high 2014 ERA and noted two things: he was consistently- mediocre-to-bad in 2014: only one month where his ERA was below 4.91.  Also, in the home-cooking category his ERA at home was a PCL-respectable 4.21.  On the road? U..u..ugly at 6.91.

In 2013, sort of the same thing.  Home ERA 3.35, road ERA 4.99.  Possibly a sign that road fans get to Goeddel.  If that is the case, that’s good, because if he corrects it, he’s got another avenue to upside growth.  In 2013, he had one outstanding month (June 3-0, 1.08) but was 5.12 in the other 4 months – just pointing that out.

Yet he has decent big league stuff, with it reported that he can touch 95 (which nonetheless would only qualify him for a KC Royal Slow Pitch League if he is a pen guy), with a decent curve.  Walks are on the high side (3.62 per 9 for his career, 4.23 in 2014). 

So he seems like a fringe 5th starter or 7th inning guy in the future.  But I keep coming back to the G Man, Dillon Gee, who sported a painful International League AAA ERA of 4.96 in his full year there - and yet has made a career for himself in the bigs.  And Jon Niese had one year in St Lucie where he sported a 4.29 ERA with 151 hits in 134 innings, so Goeddel has to show he can replicate their levels of success.  Why not?

So, whither goes Goeddel in 2015? I have my doubts as to him doing more than repeating AAA as a reliever, and possibly an occasional call-up to Queens, but only time will tell. 

But he's better than Mike Pelfrey, IMO, so that's saying something.