Mack’s Morning Report – 8-6-15 – ROY WAR, David Wright, Marcos Molina, Yoenis Cespedes


Good morning.

Well, THAT was interesting,

Thank God we didn't blow this 8-0 leas like we did recently with the 7-1 lead against San Diego. It still sort of felt like a loss tonight, didn't it?

I wonder what Jason Werth is saying tonight?

Matt Harvey's ERA in his last nine games...  1.64

BTW... Michael Fulmer pitched for Portland on Augst 4th... 6.2-IP, 0-ER, 0.00, 6-K, seasonal ERA: 1.75

 Joel Sherman  uses Wins Above Replacement (WAR) as a 2016 Rookie of the Year comparison:

Using Fangraph’s version of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Bryant led NL rookies at 3.4, and Pederson actually had sunk to a third-place tie at 2.7 with Pittsburgh’s Jung-ho Kang and St. Louis’ Randal Grichuk. Giants third baseman Matt Duffy was second  at 3.1.

Syndergaard — despite making just 15 starts — already led all major league rookie pitchers in WAR at 2.4. And, as opposed to Bryant and Pederson, he was trending in a positive way. In his last eight starts, Syndergaard had a 1.44 ERA and a .176 batting average against.
Mack – It seems to me that Syndergaard is really going to have to keep up the positive heat on Bryant who, right now, looks like a lock to follow Jacob deGrom for this award.

Fangraphs projects it this way:

Kris Bryant3.41.65.0
Matt Duffy3.10.83.9
Joc Pederson2.71.13.8
Noah Syndergaard2.51.23.7
Jung-Ho Kang2.70.83.5
Randal Grichuk2.70.63.3
Chris Heston2.30.93.2
Maikel Franco1.30.72.0

Still, you never know…

Fact:  Vic Black has now given up only one run over his last 8 innings pitched in AAA with only three walks in that span.

Kevin Kernan  outlined the plan for David Wright to return in his Wednesday morning NY Post story:

Here is the Wright Plan.

The third baseman will go through anther workout here Wednesday, then head to Port St. Lucie. On Thursday morning he will practice at the Mets facility, a workout Collins will attend. There will be workouts Friday and Saturday and then Wright will be re-evaluated and could be in minor league games by Monday.

If all that goes well, Wright will be in the Mets lineup shortly thereafter. He hasn’t played since April 14.

Mack – It’s amazing how a five game winning streak, four new players in the dugout, and standing alone in first base can make someone forget about their.
One thing about stenosis. This is NOT a bulging disc. You’re not going to cause the canals to narrow any quicker by playing baseball. You can aggravate the situation and cause new pain, but therapy and heat can immediately bring relief.
I start every day without paid and some days I have none at all. Others, a small turn of my neck the wrong way start a whole new set of problems. For me, I immediately spend 15 minutes in a hot, strong shower, running the water on the pain spots and follow with a tens unit application and two hours on the couch using a ¾ donut pillow to support my neck.

Wright will have his game strength back by the time he returns. He’s also have a recovery plan like I do if he has any minor setbacks when he plays.

SS Anderson Bohorquez is the second Columbian to sign with the Mets this year. He played his first game last light in right field for the DSL Mets.

As Tom Brennan reported yesterday in the comments, Mets SP prospect Marcos Molina apparently didn’t have TJS and pitched three scoreless innings yesterday during a rehab session for the GCL Mets. This is especially important since the Mets have traded away so many of their secondary pitching prospects this year.
I expect the 20-year old to eventually return this year to St. Lucie where he should finish the season out. This would project him at the AA-level at the ripe old age of 21.

 Andy Martino wrote on the Yoenis Cespedes comments:

This is a savvy and ridiculous comment, worthy of the ridiculous topic. Cespedes has played two home games in Queens, and the Mets haven’t lost since he arrived. And he already knows that he wants to be with the team for a “long, long time?” It’s what he has to say in that situation, but we should take it for what it is.

Expect Cespedes to do this winter what just about every player would do, and follow the money. Why wouldn’t he become a free agent? Checking in with a few executives and evaluators on Tuesday, we gathered that the strong expectation is the Cespedes will find a contract of at least six years.
                    Mack – I hate it when I agree with Martino but I do here.

No matter how much I dream, Cespedes’ agent is going to force his client to see what comes in during those five days after the World Series.
Trust me. Some team will offer him a six-year contract, something you’re not going to get out of the Mets. It’s not something the Mets are going to do for a 29-year old… think David Wright and the result so far there.


Metsiac said...

Cespedes didn't "have to say that". Mike Piazza didn't say it, did he? The question is how much he meant it AND what the Mets' reaction will be. They don't have to wait for the five day period, or even the end of the season.

One key--- if it's true, as reported by Klapisch, that Jeff W pushed Sandy to get him, will he push him again to re-sign him, and put up the dough?

Ernest Dove said...

Well it sure was a fun 8 innings last night hanging out at Marlins Park. Me and ALL the Mets fans had a good time out cheering the random Marlins fans..
Then the 9th happened. ..................
Oh well a win is a win.

Zozo said...

Get us Krod!!!! We need one more piece in the bullpen as we could see last night....

Cody Pomeray said...

I love Yo thus far. And I have a feeling I'll continue to love him. I think he's the most athletically gifted player this team has had since Reyes, possibly dating back to Straw.

Having said all that—and I don't mean to be the downer—I won't blame the Mets if they don't offer him six years.

Thomas Brennan said...

Heck man, it was a win and a 2 game lead. I forgot about The 9th a minute after The win, and went back to smiling. The Nats, like the Cubs in 1969, don't yet grasp that IT IS OVER!

I am just amazed they are doing it without Danny Muno.

I would sign Cespedes for 6 years. He shows NO sign of breaking down, so I'd not be surprised to get 3 strong years, with a slow decline the next 3. He is legit. Be like the Yanks...do it. Sign him. Let's be the team to beat for the next several years.

Reese Kaplan said...

The question on whether or not to sign him is also tied to whomever else is out there to go to the highest bidder. Justin Upton? Jason Heyward? Alex Gordon? Gerardo Parra? Denard Spann? Austin Jackson? Nori Aoki? Of that group, probably only Upton, Heyward and Gordon would qualify as middle-of-the-order hitters.

bob gregory said...

The more success Cespedes and the Mets have, the more the fans will revolt if Cepedes, or some other comparable free agent(s) are not obtained this winter.

The current success and hopefully Continued success through the rest of the season will justify everything fans and media have thought/said/complained about during the past few years.
Going from the depths of mediocrity to soaring with success in large part due to the acquisition of significant major league talent is too much to take away.
Fans and media will absolutely revolt.
If things seemed bad before, new depths of hatred and despair will be found.

The front office/owners have to understand the actions they took this trading period set them on a new path that they can not turn back from.
Now, that path does not have to, nor should it, lead to a Yankee or Dodgers like spending spree. It does have to demonstrate that they are no longer making decisions solely on financial penny pinching.

Since some comparable talent will have to be obtained this winter, why not Cespedes?
He was already chosen for this team.
The Mets already invested 2 pitching prospects in him.
He apparently had Jeff Wilpons backing.
If he continues to perform as he already has, he has clearly demonstrated his worth in his own production and how he affects others in the lineup.
He clearly loves to play baseball.
He seems to fit in well with the other players.
He has an immense amount of natural athleticism, which should allow him to perform at higher levels for linger as he ages.

Since the Mets will be forced to replace him with equivalent level talent, to avoid outright fan and media mutiny, who else would replace him?
I doubt Alderson will want to dip into his minor league so soon to spend prospects in trades.
That leaves free agents.
Heyward? Talented? Yes. But will probably cost the same $$.
Others? Equivalent in talent and production?
I don't think there are any worthy alternatives, especially when you factor in factors listed above.

Agents and gms don't need all teams to start bidding in order to figure out the range in which contracts will most likely land. Both sides have a general idea of how many years and $$ before free agency begins.
Bidding usually is the fight to see at which end of the range a player will land.
So, use the range. Alderson, suckling it up, take a deep breath, and accept that you will only be negotiating in the top half or top quarter of that range.
This is more likely to be done than at any point in the past 5 years.
If Cuddyer could be obtained so early in free agency last year, this deal can and should get done.

IBfromWhitePlains said...

Off topic: I love this kid Dee Gordon. Wish he was a Met. On the other hand, how many teams can boast a leadoff hitter with .797 OPS? I'm guessing, very few. Curtis has been a ton of fun to watch this year. LGM!

Mack Ade said...

Metsiac -

Nothing can prevent Jeff from reaching out directly with Cespedes' agent. Agents love when owners do this.

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

Yeah, it sure did feel like a loss.

Now, just target on willing the next series. You can't win them all.

Mack Ade said...

Cody -

I agree. A six year contract would take him into his 35-year and the Mets have no desire to do another contract like that again

Mack Ade said...

Zozo -
Do you think K-Rod would get through waivers?

Ernest Dove said...

Long (financial) story short the Mets can definitely front load a nice size contract for Cespedes. Pay big first 3 years as guys contracts come off books each year. Final three years Mets will have Grandy off the books.

Mack Ade said...

Tom, Reese, Bob -

I agree with all three of you, but, trust me, somebody will come along and let Cespedes' agent know that he can get 5-6 years at $20mil per. There are teams out there that simply don't care what they are paying someone at the end of a contract (i.e. Beltran).

Just Cespedes' presence in the Mets lineup has changed everything, but it's going to take a complete change in operational philosophy to get what you want the Mets to do.

Thomas Brennan said...

I agree, Ernest. If it were 6 years 120 MM, figure it at 25,25,25,20,15,10 as the true per year costs, even if he is not paid that way. To do it otherwise is delusional, paying him less early and more late.

Grandy has 2 more years, so Cespedes would be 4 years beyond that.

bob gregory said...

Times are changing. Or....
Citifield will look even worse than it ever has or Montreal stadium ever did at its worst.

Adam Smith said...

Issue is that this is exactly the opposite of what the FO has been doing. They've been back loading contracts, hoping, it seems that finances will improve over time, or that they can trade guys to get out from under the biggest years. I actually think that the Mets will make a serious effort to extend the guy, just not sure if it's possible or how it will get structure, if at all.

TP said...

I agree with Tom - who cares how scary the 9th was, they won and have a 2 game lead. Enjoy it.

RE Cespedes resigning - it will be very tough give the 5 day time limit post WS. That said, it should be considered, but clearly we need to see how the remaining 55 games play out. On some levels it could make sense, baseball-wise and business-wise. Especially if they determine that he is the only "big piece" needed for 2016...they would not lose a draft pick to re-sign him. Interesting how nice Ruben Tejada looks at SS and #8 hitter when the 1-7 are legit. Tejada is a better player than Rafael Santana, and I don't remember anyone complaining about him in 1986.

Many factors in play here, it will be very interesting.

Jeff C said...

Hi Mack

Regarding signing Cespedes, he currently doesn't seem to have any pre-existing injuries so his contract should be very insurable. Losing Wright has not been the big financial hit it could have been because of the insurance. So any evaluation of his value should be only on what his perceived performance on the field will be. With Bart coming off this year, Cuddyer after next and Grandy in 2 years, there is plenty of room to maneuver. Best thing is for YC and the Mets is to continue having success and try to strike a deal at the end of the season. He is the guy that steps to the plate with that same sense of power as Piazza and Delgado. Maybe Jeff W will see this as an opportunity to win back some fans to his side.

Michael S. said...

RF Granderson/Nimmo
CF Cespedes
1B Duda
3B Wright
LF Conforto
Ca d'Arnaud
SS Tejada

Could be a very solid lineup top to bottom depending on health. The Mets might not need to make any major moves besides bringing Yeonis back.

Ernest Dove said...

By the way am I the only one who looked at those fancy WAR stats and continued to think about why its such a huge almighty metric these days? According to that fancy jargon, Thor is pretty much equal in value to Chris Heston........just sayin.......... im sure I'll get killed om here for this comment but their numbers look pretty close in the WAR category, so do they have ewualr vaklue to their team? ;)

Kevin S said...


Per Baseball-Reference

Heston has accumulated that WAR in 21 starts

Thor has 15 starts. Keeping Thor's pace of WAR/start, he'd be at 3.5 WAR through 21 starts.

The stat is telling if you interpret it correctly. Essentially Thor has been slightly more valuable than Heston is 6 less starts.

Anonymous said...

Jerry Blevins slipped and fractured same arm. Will undergo surgery.
per Adam Rubin on Twitter
Richard Jones

bob gregory said...

No way.
That is just too......umm...too
Met - like luck to happen to this new and improved team.

Ernest Dove said...

Kevin S

I think I'd have an easier time interpreting the bible than today's metrics ;)

I just want Mets to start consistently fielding 25 MAJOR LEAGUE players. They can now win for years to come, backed by their pitching. ......

And according to WAR stats, Tejada is an absolute beast among mlb shortstops (stephen G taught me that)

bob gregory said...

That's funny.

Zozo said...

Well there aren't too many teams that are below is that might consider picking him up before he gets to us? So he might make it all the way to us, unless the Nats pick him up first?

Cody Pomeray said...

What sucks is that if they don't sign Cespedes the Mets will be blamed regardless when in fact it might be more his decision than theirs.

No one will know the truth. And they'll get killed anyway.

bob gregory said...

I wouldn't feel so bad for the owners and front office there.
After what they have done the past years they have earned that possible initial reaction.
Of course, they have the chance to either do what it takes to retain Cespedes or acquire comparable talent.
Of course given issues stated above, it seems to make more sense to retain Cespedes, even if they have to go a bit further than accustomed to in negotiations.

Cody Pomeray said...

And yet retaining Cespedes might be out of their control, and through no fault of their own either …

Lew Rhodes said...

@Ernest - For a pitcher's WAR, innings pitched are a big part of it - so Heston and Thor are equal because Heston has 30+ more IP -- that is 15% of a normal starter's workload.

Also - Tejada has negative offensive WAR - but factoring his defensive WAR he is at 0.9 -- which is slightly below middle of the pack - but, he has only 7 less extra base hits than Murphy in 75 less AB's - so either Tejada has been decent this year or Murphy has not been good - a little of both I think!

Anonymous said...

I here all the talk of the Mets having 3 #1 starters. Some teams best starter being a #3.
A #1 is supposed to be a teams best starter. So, is the concept of a #1 the 30 best pitchers since there are 30 teams?
Is there any other thoughts on what qualifies a pitcher as a "#1"?
Richard Jones

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