Reese Kaplan -- Be Bold, Wilpon-san

This off-season there will be a great many people clamoring for free agents like Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta, Diamondbacks slugger J.D. Martinez and Royals 3^rd baseman Mike Moustakas.  These players have played the requisite number of years under team control to warrant their big payday. 

Also potentially entering free agency this year a two players who signed under the old rules of Japanese baseball compensation – starters Yu Darvish of the Dodgers and possibly starter Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees (who can opt out of his current deal).  Both players required huge payments as posting fees just to get the right to bid on them, then went onto sign lucrative long term contracts.

2018 is the year all of that revenue changing hands nearly comes to a grinding halt.  The bargaining rules changed, capping the posting fee at $20 million to the Japanese club giving up a young star and then that player coming to America is subject to the same service time restrictions as people coming through the traditional drafting process.  You can see that latter wrinkle at work with now ex-Met Nori Aoki who, despite being 35 years of age, was still under team control and not yet a free agent which inevitably led to his ouster after hitting .284. 

That change contrasts with the old system whereby the posting fees were negotiable and went to the highest bidder.  Yu Darvish cost the Rangers $51.7 million just for the right to negotiate a deal and the overall spend by Texas was to the tune of $111 million. 

This new system is now squarely under the floodlights as two-way Japanese star Shohei Otani is expected to be posted by the Nippon Ham Fighters.  At the tender age of 23, he has already established himself both as a star pitcher and a formidable hitter.  Many refer to him as the Japanese Babe Ruth, though his power with the bat is not nearly as impressive as it is on the mound.

How good is he?  Well, in roughly two full seasons of ABs as an outfielder he’s hit .286 with 48 HRs and 166 RBIs.  Those numbers are certainly admirable and when you factor in both his age and the fact he was working on a bum ankle this past year, he’s got room to improve upon them.  He does whiff a bit which led one scout to compare him to an in-his-prime Curtis Granderson – good power, good speed, low batting average, high strikeouts but also a high OBP.

As a pitcher he’s really posting the eye popping stats.  Over the course of five seasons he has a 42-15 record with an ERA of just 2.52.  He strikes out over 10 per 9 IP and despite his young age has exhibited pretty good control with a career WHIP of just a tad over 1.000.  In 543 IP he’s only allowed 384 hits.

Had Otani waited until he was age 25 he would be free to cash in on whatever deal he could strike but by making the jump to the majors now he is likely costing himself a lot of money.  After all, he cannot become a free agent for 6 years, but then again he’d only be 29 at that time so it’s not exactly like he’s going to be ordering off the dollar menu at McDonalds. 

Otani has been vocal about wanting to go to a club where he has the opportunity to hit.  Most scouts are in agreement he’s a more potent pitcher than hitter, but with the holes the Mets have in the outfield you’d think they’d at least want to consider having him try both roles.

Therein lies the rub – unlike most gambles on a pitcher or a hitter, in this case you get the potential for success at one or the other (or if you dare to dream big – both).  Consequently the risk of signing him is far less than a guy who is only a hitter or only a pitcher. 

Heretofore the Mets have been xenophobic when it came to signing free agents out of Japan and Cuba.  Yes, they did sign the immortal Kaz Matsui, a mature Hisanori Takahashi, the enigmatic Kazuhisa Ishii and the flamboyant Tsuyoshi Shinjo.  Not a single one of them was considered a prime prospect and the results pretty delivered what you’d expect from the bargain bin.  Takahashi was a pleasant surprise but the others were pretty forgettable. 

Here is an opportunity to show the fans a sincerely new approach to building the ballclub, filling positions of need on both sides of the diamond, and not having to give up compensatory draft picks as you would with traditional free agents.  The marketing of Otani could create a Tebow-like buzz for the Mets and give them instant gravitas instead of the punchline they have become.  If you consider what it would cost for a top notch starter and a top notch outfielder, Otani may actually prove to be a bargain (even if he only winds up playing one role full time). 

Here’s my challenge to the Wilpons and Sandy Alderson.  You saved a ton of payroll last season.  Spend some of it to make Otani a Met.