More or Less (Part Six)

If you read the first five installments of this series, I mentioned my preoccupation with the game show "The Price is Right" and how a couple of the games reminded me of the Mets roster and their chances in 2018. 

For example, do you remember the game “Now or Then” where the contestants had to guess if a random grocery item’s displayed price was current or from the past?   Or, the game “More or Less” where the players were shown an item and a corresponding price that may or may not be correct.  The player had to guess if the displayed price was more or less then the real price that was concealed behind the visible price.  These two games gave me an idea for a series of articles about our favorite team as we clear the holidays and head towards Spring Training.

The overall roster is largely complete, whether we like it or not.  It also contains certain players who will be much more influential (positive or negative) on the team’s performance then other members of the roster.  In a previous article, I used the term “foundation pieces” to describe these players as they will likely be the reason that the team wins or fails to do so.  I will select a different player for each article and it will include their “career” statistical average(s).  

Once we have an average performance documented, we will play “more or less” using their career baseline as the "displayed price" (keep in mind that some players have more statistical data then others, so in cases where the major league data is lacking, I used their minor league numbers to produce a baseline).  In short, if our key players mostly produce “more” then expected, it will likely manifest itself into a successful season and possibly a return to the playoffs.

The first five articles covered Yoenis Cespedes (voted MORE), Jacob DeGrom (voted MORE), Michael Conforto (voted LESS), Noah Syndergaard (voted MORE) and Jay Bruce (voted MORE).

The sixth and final "foundation" player we will look at is the "ace" of our bullpen;  Jeurys Familia.

With the recent "rumblings" out of New York that new manager Mickey Callaway may prefer a "bullpen by committee", this selection may be less influential this year then previously thought.  I will admit that an effective "committee" is a nice option to have, but you still need someone that you can count on when things get really stressful.  Maybe I am old school, but I still prefer having "a closer" that I can turn to, in addition to effective depth.

Until proven otherwise, JF will be the first guy in line to close things out on a regular basis.  

For some reason, I was surprised when I researched his career and saw that he has been on the major league roster for parts of six seasons already!  His first action with the Mets was in 2012, when he appeared in a grand total of eight games, including his one and only starting appearance.  He also made nine appearances in 2013, to include notching his first professional save.  Truth be told, his first two seasons were barely a blip on the radar, as he totaled twenty-three innings TOTAL between the two seasons.

Starting in 2014, JF became a much more valued member of the Mets bullpen as he appeared in seventy-six games covering just over seventy-seven innings, to include five saves.  While he was not the main closer that year, you could see his potential and you also got a glimpse of what was to come the next two seasons.   Between the 2015 and 2016 season, JF was a BEAST, averaging seventy-seven appearances, just shy of seventy-eight innings pitched to go along with ninety-four saves!  He also had an effective strike out rate (9.8 K/9) for the two seasons, but his control was not quite where you want it for your "closer" (3.6 BB/9).

Much like the rest of the roster last year, JF did not have a 2017 season to remember.  Due to well publicized issues, he only appeared in twenty-six games with six saves and an alarming drop in all of his associated pitching rates.  His fall from grace was as damaging to the Mets early season success as any of the other injuries, in my humble opinion.

So, moving on to a much better story (hopefully), what can we expect from JF in 2018?

Well, in keeping with our "more or less" discussion, I took a look at his career statistics and tried to develop an "average".  It is tricky, because has only been a "closer" for the past three years and he lost a good chunk of 2017, as we know.  Instead, I took his total appearances (273) and divided that by seventy-five (average "full season" for a closer) to arrive at a divisor for his total career statistical output (I know, that was a mouth full).   In short, he has pitched approximately 3.6 "seasons" in the major leagues, to date.  

If that is the case, then here is an "average" JF season;

                     75.8 Appearances - 77.8 IP

                      2.5 Wins and 3.6 Losses

                                 29.4 Saves

                       2.63 ERA - 1.21 WHIP

                            79.4 K (9.2 K/9 IP)

                            31.9 BB (3.7 BB/9 IP)

                                    1.61 WAR

Much like the rest of the Mets' foundation players, the key for JF is to STAY HEALTHY and I would also like to see him reduce his walk rate a bit (especially for a supposed "closer").   I am cautiously optimistic that this will be the case with better management and a better sports

science program in place.  Cleveland had an excellent bullpen under Mickey Callaway last year so you have to think it will translate here.

Do you think JF produces more or less then the listed offensive statistics and why?