In
August of 2017, Baseball Prospectus called Amed Rosario a “true five-tool
prospect”. The five tools commonly associated with baseball are:
Speed
Average
Power
Fielding
Arm Strength
It’s
easy to see that Rosario has plus tools on the defensive side. But from what
we’ve seen so far, it’s harder to see that plus ability on the offensive side.
At
times, Rosario looks overmatched at the plate. It got me thinking about other
Mets with similar offensive styles and how they stacked up their first year in
the majors.
I
pulled up some stats for Mets with a similar skill set – speedy hitters that
you could envision in the leadoff spot, despite a lack of plate discipline. The
three that came to mind were Mookie Wilson, Lenny Dykstra and Jose Reyes. As I
was looking at the numbers, a few things stood out:
Strikeouts
Name
|
Age
|
G
|
PA
|
AB
|
SO
|
K%
|
Amed Rosario
|
21-22
|
81
|
293
|
280
|
78
|
26%
|
Mookie Wilson
|
24
|
27
|
119
|
105
|
19
|
15%
|
Lenny Dykstra
|
22
|
83
|
273
|
236
|
24
|
8%
|
Jose Reyes
|
20
|
69
|
292
|
274
|
36
|
12%
|
Rosario’s
K rate is almost double the next closest on the list – 26% vs. Mookie Wilson’s
15%. In fairness, Wilson had less than half the plate appearances of Rosario.
Walks
Name
|
Age
|
G
|
PA
|
AB
|
BB
|
BB%
|
Amed Rosario
|
21-22
|
81
|
293
|
280
|
7
|
2%
|
Mookie Wilson
|
24
|
27
|
119
|
105
|
12
|
10%
|
Lenny Dykstra
|
22
|
83
|
273
|
236
|
30
|
10%
|
Jose Reyes
|
20
|
69
|
292
|
274
|
13
|
4%
|
Rosario
has the fewest walks despite having the most plate appearances. Accordingly,
his walk rate is the lowest of the group. I always thought of Wilson as the
ultimate free swinger. Surprisingly, he had almost double the number of walks
that Rosario has in less than half the plate appearances.
OBP
Name
|
Age
|
G
|
PA
|
AB
|
OBP
|
lgOBP
|
Amed Rosario
|
21-22
|
81
|
293
|
280
|
0.271
|
0.326
|
Mookie Wilson
|
24
|
27
|
119
|
105
|
0.325
|
0.325
|
Lenny Dykstra
|
22
|
83
|
273
|
236
|
0.338
|
0.327
|
Jose Reyes
|
20
|
69
|
292
|
274
|
0.334
|
0.336
|
As
expected, given his high K rate and low walk rate, Rosario has the lowest OBP
by more than 50 points. While the others on this list were all right around the
league average, Rosario’s OBP is significantly below league average.
BA vs BABIP
Name
|
Age
|
G
|
PA
|
AB
|
BA
|
BABIP
|
Amed Rosario
|
21-22
|
81
|
293
|
280
|
0.246
|
0.327
|
Mookie Wilson
|
24
|
27
|
119
|
105
|
0.248
|
0.302
|
Lenny Dykstra
|
22
|
83
|
273
|
236
|
0.254
|
0.277
|
Jose Reyes
|
20
|
69
|
292
|
274
|
0.307
|
0.335
|
Rosario’s
BABIP isn’t alarmingly high or low, but I found it very interesting that
despite having the second highest BABIP on this list, he has the lowest batting
average.
Now,
what does it all mean? It’s hard to say given the small sample size, but if we take
a closer look, we’ll see that the overall walk and K rates for Wilson, Dykstra
and Reyes didn’t change too much over the course of their careers, with the exception
of Wilson’s steep drop in walk rate:
Name
|
BB% - 1st Year
|
BB% - Career
|
K% - 1st Year
|
K% - Career
|
Amed Rosario
|
2%
|
TBD
|
26%
|
TBD
|
Mookie Wilson
|
10%
|
5%
|
15%
|
15%
|
Lenny Dykstra
|
10%
|
12%
|
8%
|
9%
|
Jose Reyes
|
4%
|
7%
|
12%
|
11%
|
Name
|
BA - 1st Year
|
BA - Career
|
OBP - 1st Year
|
OBP - Career
|
Amed Rosario
|
0.246
|
TBD
|
0.271
|
TBD
|
Mookie Wilson
|
0.248
|
0.274
|
0.325
|
0.314
|
Lenny Dykstra
|
0.254
|
0.285
|
0.338
|
0.375
|
Jose Reyes
|
0.307
|
0.285
|
0.334
|
0.336
|
Reyes
and Dykstra were able to increase their walk rate without a large increase in K
rate. Both went on to become above average major leaguers. Wilson, whose walk
rate dropped and whose K rate stayed the same, was a good player but spent a
majority of his career in a platoon role.
When
it comes to power, Rosario’s SLG% is higher than everyone on this list except
Reyes, although it’s still well below league average. This is expected as power
typically develops last.
Name
|
SLG
|
lgSLG
|
Amed Rosario
|
0.364
|
0.419
|
Mookie Wilson
|
0.352
|
0.382
|
Lenny Dykstra
|
0.331
|
0.386
|
Jose Reyes
|
0.434
|
0.425
|
So,
is Rosario a five-tool player? That’s yet to be determined. The raw talent is
there. Everything hinges on his ability to increase his on-base skills, whether
via hits or walks (or, more likely, some combination of the two).
If
Rosario can increase his on-base skills, he’ll be in a better position to capitalize
on his plus speed. He’s shown good gap power to the opposite field and I expect
the power will continue to develop over the next few years, especially if he’s
able to cut down on his strikeouts. A 2% walk rate is unsustainable, especially
when paired with a K rate of 26%.
If
he can increase his OBP, it’s not unreasonable to think he could be a player
similar to Reyes – maybe not quite as dynamic on the basepaths, but an above
average defender with good speed and pop. Learning how to utilize his speed by
bunting for base hits could also help elevate his game.
If
he’s unable to control the strike zone and increase his OBP, he may end up an
above average defender without enough offense to justify a full time role.
Although
he’s looked overmatched at times, he’s also shown flashes of being the player
we hope for – last night’s game is a prime example. Rosario has the talent.
Hopefully he has the ability to develop that talent, and we have the ability to
be patient enough to let it happen.
15 comments:
I have to ask you Erica...
Are you Chris Soto in drag?
Chris used to write great stuff like this and it is great to see this much detail to analyzing our guys.
Keep up the great work.
What concerns me more than the plate discipline which should improve with experience is that the defense is not what was advertised and the baserunning has been pretty much non-existent. For a kid barely 22 I'm not throwing in the towel, but if I'm a SS in the pipeline I have to be having a Schadenfreude moment watching Rosario struggle.
Reese -
I have watched Amed playing SS closely since he has come up. I watch with old infield playing eyes.
I think he is trying too hard. He is starting to loosen up a little and let his God given talent take over. Most of his mistakes have been stupid decisions.
There ought to be 6 tools...the 699th being pitch selection. Tons of room to impove.
Great analysis, Erica. Keep them coming.
OMG Erika
I am in love... Just kidding... I have always had a Bromance with Reese since I seem to always agree with him...
But your first few posts have been wonderful...
and I see your questioning Rosario with stats behind it.
I had the eye test and I have always felt he didn't have the look of star... we all pray I am wrong...
Eddie, Guillorme may not have Rosario's physical skills - but he gets on base well.
NIce work, Erica......I am a huge fan of statistics and the story that they tell.
Yanks are now favored to win the world series. The Mets are favored to finish the season.
Tom and Reese:
I don't know about your Atelophobia (the fear of being assigned too long of books to read in English class, like Shakespeare's "Atelo" or your "Sigmund Freud Theory of Relatives" in Biology) but I can say this quite simply...The Mets need to play a little better than last night. Okay? (LOL)
Now, having said all the above (oh boy) here's a few out of the cornfield ideas that just went nanosecond across my skull like a meteorite. Is this team really ready to make the Playoffs in 2018 or are we all deluding ourselves. Or should it be "diluting ourselves" as perhaps in many cases. You decide.
Okay then...
So where are these NY Mets maybe needing to shore up a little bit more? For one, the cheerleaders could be a tad bit better!
For starters, we have like what five or six catchers on this team and with no power hitting ones in the MiLB pipeline close to here, that I am aware of anyway? Maybe at Low A Ball, but not sure. So...
Idea 1: Tom Murphy (Alb.Isotopes/Rockies AAA). Tom is from New York, age 27, .289 career MiLB stats, .485 SLG%, has had four out of the six seasons he has played MiLB where he has hit around 20 HR's. Colorado is the parent club to these Isotopes, and the Rockies need a 2B and maybe a more significant pitcher as well.
Mets' pitching hasn't been quite what was anticipated, although no team's ever really is, let's face it. It's too easy to over-estimate your pitching staff because every team loves what they break camp with. And we have to remember here too, that it is only mid-May not September later season. Things can always turn around and get far better quickly.
Idea 2: Baltimore is a team in need, sadly "bone picking status", need major SOS/ABBA style. Outfield help, and also another pitcher or two of worth and value. They have a catcher though in Austin Wynns, age 27. In 2017, Austin hit .281, 10 HR, .336 OBP. They also have a decent lefty in Donnie Hart, age 27, in 2017 amassed 30 in 37 attempt saves, 2.43 ERA, 1.15 WHIP.
At AA Baysox they have a 23 year old round one starter (get this) Hunter Harvey (are you ready for this?) a righty 6'3", 2.77 career ERA, with a 1.14 WHIP and 204 strikeouts in 165 innings. And then also at Baysox, a lefty reliever Paul Fry. In 2018 Paul has a 3-0 record, 28 strikeouts in 19 innings with a 1.11 WHIP.
Maybe something in the above worth the read. But keep it short Shakespeare!
Mack Ade:
I think your observations on Amed are right on the money. We need Mr. and Mrs. Met to go over to the dugout and give Amed a huge bear hug.
Amed Rosario is blessed with abundant talent. And once he has grown in his land legs here at Citi Field and relaxed, I think we will all begin to see the real man inside number 1.
I like this young player.
Maybe after a significant "rain delay" and depending on the starter in the game before the deluge hit, the Mets should warm up a second starter to complete it and not send the initial starter back out?
It seems to mess things up for the initial starter too often.
For all you MATT (Man About Tinsel Town) Harvey bashers thinking he was playing a game here and not giving 100%. Matt was equally bad last night with Cincy.
Nice try on the theory anyway guys! Go Fish!
I think Luis Guillorme has to play more too. He isn't like an every single night ESPN Highlight reel. Instead, Luis just gets the job done and with consistency on offense and defense.
I like that a lot!
Many outstanding thoughts from Anonymous - Robert Frost agreed with me on the LOL.
This team needs Jennry Mejia back - it hasn't been the same since he left.
@Mack - Haha. I'll have to keep you guessing.
@Reese - I agree that his defense and base running haven't been as stellar as advertised but, after watching Cabrera butcher SS last season, I'm all in on Amed's D. Also, I think he's bringing his offense out onto the field with him. He seemed to better defensively earlier in the year when he was having more success as the plate. As for the base running - I'm hoping that once he actually get's on base, this will pickup.
@Eddie - Haha. Thank you. I hope he can turn things around and be the star we're all hoping for. So far, it's not there.
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