5/23/18

Reese Kaplan -- Improving the Roster Composition



With the current rash of injuries the NY Mets roster is a living rendition of the old cliché that you can’t keep track without a scorecard.  Right now at the major league level the club is facing injuries to Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d’Arnaud, Todd Frazier, Juan Lagares, Rafael Montero, Kevin Plawecki, T.J. Rivera,  Hansel Robles, Anthony Swarzak and David Wright.  For what it’s worth, the Cardinals also have ten players on the major league DL as well.  It’s for you to decide if Rafael Montero or Hansel Robles actually are major league players. 

So the roster as of Tuesday consists of the following:

  • Adrian Gonzalez
  • Wilmer Flores
  • Asdrubal Cabrera
  • Luis Guillorme
  • Amed Rosario
  • Jose Reyes
  • Phil Evans
  • Brandon Nimmo
  • Michael Conforto
  • Jay Bruce
  • Devin Mesoraco
  • Tomas Nido
  • Jacob deGrom
  • Noah Syndergaard
  • Steven Matz
  • Zack Wheeler
  • Jason Vargas
  • Jeurys Familia
  • Jerry Blevins
  • Robert Gsellman
  • Seth Lugo
  • Paul Sewald
  • AJ Ramos
  • Jacob Rhame
  • Chris Flexen
At some point you would think they would sacrifice a bullpen arm for some OF help.  Phil Evans doesn’t have a whole lot of experience out there but actually has more than the guy we were told repeatedly would get outfield reps, Jose Reyes.  Then again, the less often Jose Reyes plays, the better off they are.  (This sentence was penned BEFORE his two errors performance on Tuesday!)

It would seem to me that with Juan Lagares on the shelf for the rest of the year there is a dire need for a 4th/5th outfielder type assuming Evans’ stay is short term until Yoenis Cespedes rubs a sufficient amount of snake oil on the lower half of his body.  Towards that end I could see a few ways to achieve this change.

Trade AJ Ramos

While he’s not been very good he’s not been so bad that would rule out another team looking to take a chance on him.  He’s gone as a free agent at year’s end anyway and you’re overstocked in the bullpen (particularly if and when Where’s Waldo Swarzak returns.  All you’re looking for in return now is a right handed hitting outfielder already at the major league level or with an outstanding skills in speed, defense or OBP at the AAA level. 

Trade Gavin Cecchini

While he picked the absolute worst time to get a foot injury, the fact remains that when they were in need of help and wanted someone on the 40-man roster, the former first round pick was not getting the call.

Trade Dom Smith

Yes, it’s far too soon to write off this former first rounder but it’s clear that Peter Alonso and Jeremy Vazquez behind him and Wilmer Florres and Adrian Gonzalez ahead of him means that there are not going to be very many opportunities.  Apparently they're now experimenting with him in LF but as a LH bat with no baserunning speed he's not the answer for the Mets right now even if he took to it like the preverbial duck to water.  

Now who could you target in return?  One way to look at it are teams that have a crowded outfield situation already and have players in the minors who are likely blocked from advancing.  One such definition would include Boston’s Rusney Castillo, but he’s a special case since he signed a contract worth $11.7 million this year, next year and $14 million in 2020.  He has an opt-out clause but is no longer on the Red Sox 40-man roster and would be foolish to opt out of his deal.  Consequently he would be a VERY expensive bench piece unless you could be guaranteed that Boston would eat the remainder of his contract.  If so, the $2 million differential between what Ramos makes and Castillo makes could be equitable.  Last year for Pawtucket he hit .314/15/43 in 347 ABs.  This season he’s hitting .297 but with 0 HRs and 18 RBIs.  He’s right handed.  Those are IL numbers, not PCL numbers.

Another name worth looking at is Chris Shaw of the Sacramento River Cats.  He was a 1st round pick in 2015 and last season delivered .297/24/79.  This season the average is down at .267, but he already has 10 HRs and 30 RBIs.  Maybe the Giants would be interested in a swap of former first rounders?

Frank Schwindel of the Oklahoma Storm Chasers (KC Royals affiliate) is coming off a great 2017 campaign which saw him deliver a combined .329/23/97.  Thus far this year he’s off to a more tepid .238/6/29 which means he might be a good buy low candidate.  He’s a local kid having grown up in Livingston, NJ and attending St. Johns. 

The Albuquerque Isotopes’ centerfielder Raimel Tapia is a career .321 hitter who has stolen as many as 33 bases in a season.  He’s currently providing the Rockies’ AAA club with .302/6/29 and 7 SBs.  He’s not on the Rockies 40-man roster.

The Cardinals organization continues to be a model for success and they’ve already promoted a couple of their hotter prospects.  Still lingering in AAA is Oscar Mercado, a guy who started off slowly his first four years but then turned it on last year in AA with a season of .287/13/46 with 38 SBs.  This year he’s off to an even better start with .320/5/17 with 10 steals for Memphis in AAA.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a non-roster player named Andrew Velasquez, a speed demon who once pilfered 50 bases in a single season.  While he’s never hit double digits in HRs, he’s actually improving as he ascends in the minors, currently hitting .281 in AAA.

The Pirates have an outfielder in their system by the name of Christopher Bostick who is a .271 hitter for his career and the last two years have included .296 and .304.  He’s stolen as many as 36 bases in a season.  He has about 10 HR per year power – probably similar to what Lagares would provide if he played regularly.

Tim Locastro of the Oklahoma City Dodgers has performed at a slightly higher level than the Pirates’ farmhand Bostick.  In 2017 he hit .308/10/40 with 34 SBs.  What stands out about him in addition to his bat and his speed is his OBP -- .375 for his minor league career.  For comparison’s sake, Brandon Nimmo was at .383.  So think of him as a right handed version with plus speed.

The Mariners have a speed demon in AAA named John Andreoli who has stolen 55 bases in a season while hitting a modest .269.  Given that he’s age 27 now it’s possible he could be obtained for far less than the three trade candidates previously mentioned.

Of course, you could also go after 4th/5th outfielders currently at the major league level, but the ideal bench players are the veterans who know their role.  A Craig Gentry of Baltimore would be a good example.  He’s a right handed speedster who has hit .258 for his career.  He’s stolen 24 bases in less than 250 ABs, so that’s some serious running ability. 

Finally, there is the ultimate in dumpster diving -- looking to the independent leagues to find someone who might be able to contribute.  Former White Sox first rounder Courtney Hawkins is currently leading his league in HRs and RBIs and is just 24 years old.  Veteran speedster Emilio Bonifacio would only require a ticket on the LIRR which should suit the Wilpons just fine.  He's hitting in the .370s.  Although he's a lefty, the former infielder/outfielder for the Mets who called Terry Collins an unprintable name, Jordany Valdespin, is Bonifacio's teammate and hitting .396.  James Madison University's Johnny Bladel has never had a shot at playing in the affiliated pros, but he's gotten better and better each season.  In 2017 he found himself among the leaders in his Can-Am League in several offensive categories, including runs scored, doubles, triples and hit .352 with 27 SBs in a 100 game season.  This year he's in the ALPB for the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs and is hitting a tidy .405. At just age 26 and having been the Can Am Rookie of the Year in 2014, he might be worth a look-see. 

Since the players in question are not likely going to be starters in the foreseeable future with Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo getting the majority of the ABs until Yoenis Cespedes returns, a right handed guy with speed would probably make the most sense.  That would also enable you to show Jose Reyes the door since speed is arguably his only remaining skill. 

What doesn't make sense is to pick up another over-35 retread whose best days are long behind him simply because he fits the penurious budget.  (This sentence was also written before the Mets announced that Jose Bautista was joining the club at age 37 after having been released by the Braves...would couldn't have seen the handwriting on the wall in a James Loney/Adrian Gonzalez/Jose Reyes way?)

Thoughts?



12 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

Good morning.

What am I supposed to say here. I have repeatedly called for the Mets to go young and they sigh Jose Bautista, and Adam Laffey, keep Jose Reyes around, and send Nick Evans down.

Adam friggin Laffey?

Are we actually scouting the Atlantic and Frontier League to find solutions to our problems?

Erica and I had a nice professional and spirited series of comments on her story on Thor and Jake and whether they should both be traded. I wrote on that post what I would do if this was my team... anyone can go there to check it out.

Past that, I am going to concentrate my future time to the administration of this site, my Mack's Apples posts that feature five Mets and baseball related stories, the Monday pipeline starter post, and various draft posts.

Mike Freire said...

The roster does seem to be a bit out of balance and for the life of me, I cannot see what Jose Reyes brings to the table at this point in his career?

I like your idea(s) but I wonder how much they would cost. Supposedly, Boston wants a king's ransom for Blake Swihart, so if that's the going rate, do we have the trade chips to compete? At least chips we are OK parting with, I should say.

Robb said...

Teams need veterans, but not this many veterans. Instead of trading dom smith, id promote him. Adrian gonzalez has been better then i expected, but he's a 250 hitter with minimal power, no speed and fine defense. Basically a below replacement level player. So replace him.

As for the infield, Guillorme defense is currently worth more then reyes speed. The mets have to decide soon if reyes mentorship of rosario is enough to make that up. It shouldnt be, bc hopefully there are other latin ballplayers on this team who can help fill that role.

More then anything besides health of cespedes and frazier right now they could use a jerrod dyson type righthanded hitting speedie 5th outfielder who can play center.

Sewald's role seems like it should change and he should get more leveraged situations, but swarzak will really help this team. Maybe not pitching Ramos 2 out fo every 3 days might help him too. Got to get Rhame, et al in their more.

Reese Kaplan said...

Every time I think they're ready to move on from the all-or-nothing slugger approach they bring in the guy we can only hope can ascend to his 2017 level of .203.

Tom Brennan said...

Oldtimers Day games draw very well, so the strategy is to have EVERYDAY be Old Timers Day. Bartolo Colon still wishes he was here.

You wrote "It’s for you to decide if Rafael Montero or Hansel Robles actually are major league players." I will say this much - they are getting older every day, and hence more and more valuable to the Mets.

Dumpster diving gets Mets fans in the dumps.

On a happier note, I believe Plawecki and Swarzak will be starting rehab assignments. The bad news is that the rehab is at an AA meeting (kidding, of course).

I have what I believe is an illuminating and concerning article about Dom Smith today.

Tom Brennan said...

Robb, Sewald is 0-9 in his career. Luck is always a factor, and I imagine they never score when he is in, but that has to scare anyone considering using him in higher leverage situations.

Reese Kaplan said...

@Mike -- Boston is rightfully asking a lot for a major league former first rounder who plays a position of need for many teams. It doesn't mean they'll get it.

The guys on my list are not the top prospects but almost to a man provide great baserunning speed, OF capability and hit right handed. That would seem to tick all the boxes.

Hobie said...

Mack--

Nick Evans? How quickly we forget. :-)
(A dynamite ST concluded with the Sheffield signing and a trip to Palookaville for Nick...sigh)

Robb said...

Thomas, i dont really value wins as an individual stat. There are too many other factors that go into it. Getting a 2-1 win when you pitch 6 innings, really is the same as getting a 1-0 loss when you pitched 6 innings. Im just trying to find ways to not terry collins these relievers and spread the innings around. Right now, ramos has a 5.2 era in 19 innings and sewald has a 3.91 in 25 innings.

Mack Ade said...

Phil

Tom Brennan said...

Robb, luck certainly enters into the picture.

Robles, I think, is 20-13 lifetime, while Sewald is 0-9. Jeesh!

My guess is Robles has benefited many times from clutch hitting, even in games where he may have blown a lead. Sewald has not been lucky at all in the win department, which has a lot to do with the lack of timely (for him) Mets hitting.

Robb said...

Thomas, mathematically baseball is a fascinating sport, because it puts people into such divergent positions. Its why we devalued the win. Bc sewalds losses could all have come from entering a game when tied, but half of Robles wins could have come when he entered the game with the team losing and both gave up 2 runs. In that scenario it should mean that Robles out pitched Sewald, but that isnt necessarily the case.

Then again, data science is kind of a tool that is applied in a vacuum. Which to me has always devalued the statistics. Some guys pitch better when the team is losing by 3 runs or winning by 2 vs when the game is tied or up by one. Its hard to explain but you knew a guy who you played any sport with where they'd shoot the equivalent of 9/10 from the free throw line in practice or in games except when the free throws mattered and then they never were better then 1 of 2. I think baseball has the same thing especially for relievers, margin or error, etc.

Im all for devaluing the save and the win, bc they are so dependent on factors other then the actual pitches pitchers make. Anyway last nights loss, kind of the base case for why wins is an ineffective statistical measure. and a shitty loss