Mike Friere - Where Are We Headed?

Conventional baseball wisdom states that you don’t really know how good your team is until Memorial Day.  By that point, “hot” or “poor” starts to the year have usually stabilized themselves and the standings should start to reflect what teams are viable contenders and what teams are not.  

As far as the Mets are concerned, they have played a total of 49 games to date which comprises roughly 30% of the season.  During that 49 game stretch, the team has looked like a World Series contender (the now infamous 11-1 start), the worst team in baseball (the ugly stretch of games right after the impressive start) and everywhere in between (the last few weeks).  As a result, they have a 25-24 record which is good enough for fourth place in our own division (i.e. not really good enough, in my opinion).

Furthermore, they are sitting four games behind the resurgent Atlanta Braves (our next opponent) who currently lead the division, as well as three games behind the Nationals who would be the second Wild Card team if the playoffs started today.  Some folks would argue that they are within shouting distance of the lead, so now is not the time to give up and that is admirable.  I am not necessarily arguing one way or the other, nor am I trying to be edgy and “have a hot take”.  What I try to do is keep a level head as a fan and “call it like l see it”, basing my ideas on the facts…..sort of like Joe Friday for those of you who remember the old TV show Dragnet.

So here are some “facts” to consider;

1.  The team is on pace to win approximately 83 games, which would not qualify for the playoffs 99% of the time, including this year.

2.  Despite the appearance of the “over .500 record”, they have produced a 14-23 record since the impressive start to the year which would equate to a 61-101 record over a full season.

***Is the first 12 game stretch more reliable then the last 37 game stretch?    I would go with the larger and more recent sample size if I were a betting man and I have not even touched the “injury issues” that plague this roster.

3.  The team has a negative run differential (-20), which is a fairly reliable indicator that you are not playing well.  

***The Minnesota Twins have a similar differential (-21) and their season record is 21-27, so the Mets have likely “overachieved” to this point if you can believe that.

4. They have scored 203 runs to date (4.14 per game), which sits “comfortably" in 25th place in all of baseball and 81 runs behind the leaders. 

5. Additionally, they have allowed 223 so far (4.55 per game), which is tied for 15th with the juggernaut Tampa Bay Rays and 75 runs behind the leaders.

I could continue to list the ugly numbers, but I think you get the idea.   My question is a simple one on this Monday morning and that is where are we headed as a franchise?  I don’t think anyone in their right mind would look at the Mets’ body of work so far and feel confident that they are “due for a rebound”.  Yes, they pulled that rabbit out of the hat in 2015, but that was an anomaly and not something that should be “counted on” to occur in 2018 just because it happened in the past.   Seriously, look at the numbers!

In my opinion, if you are not the best then you should be doing whatever is necessary to get there.  In this case, “staying the course” is not a sound strategy since the current edition of the Mets is most certainly not the best team in baseball (they just lost three out of four in Milwaukee who are decent, but how do you justify losing two of out three to both the Marlins and Reds this month who are two of the worst teams in baseball).

Changes are needed and I think it should start at the very top of our management structure.  Sandy has had eight years to make his mark on this franchise and I think that is more then enough time to turn things around.  Yes, they did have a couple of playoff appearances (2015, 2016), but overall this team is below .500 during his tenure.   Add to this fact that the farm system is lacking depth, along with an alarming lack of “bats” and you have to label the overall effort as substandard (I know that if I performed my job this way that I would have been replaced a while ago).   If things remain the same, do you see things suddenly working out in the next few seasons?

Simply put, the Mets should recognize that the current way of doing things is not getting the job done and they need a new plan to get the team headed in the right direction (sustainable success).  Until that is done, the team will continue to meander forward like a ship without a rudder.