5/19/18

Reese Kaplan -- Fixing the Mess, Er, Mets



As a project manager nothing bothers me more than seeing things going wrong and watching someone do nothing.  However, as a consultant when I ask, “Why do you do that?” and the reply inevitably is, “Well, that’s the way we’ve always done it” I hear the ka-ching sound of revenues coming in as the client is obviously in need of some sound advice.

In the Mets world, for seven years we experienced over-the-hill veterans getting the opportunities over younger players, bullpens being burned out, batting orders making no sense whatsoever and productive players buried on the bench.  We saw poor communication between the management team and the players, a steady culture of losing and a front office that would do just enough to claim to have made changes but never enough to actually improve.  We also saw how injuries were mismanaged and the club would go shorthanded or rush people back, only to have to disable them for longer periods of time.

Well, the more things change, the more they sometimes stay the same.  Such is the case with the 2018 Mets.  I don’t know if it’s marching orders from the front office or Mickey Callaway being apparently as clueless as his predecessor, but as Yogi Berra would say it’s déjà vu all over again.

On the subject of the over-the-hill veterans, Adrian Gonzalez this year is a lot like Jose Reyes was last year – a veteran player who still has a little bit left in the tank but usurping valuable ABs from someone who might be a part of the future.  Actually, that comparison is unfair to Gonzalez as he is hitting a mediocre but league average .258 to go with 5 HRs and 20 RBIs.  That would put him on pace for 20 HRs and 80 RBIs on the season – not bad but not exactly All-Star material either.  By contrast last year Wilmer Flores hit .271 with 18 HRs and 52 RBIs in just over a half-season’s worth of ABs.  One of these things is not like the other.  Throw in pounding Pete Alonso in AA and it would seem you have more productive alternatives.  I'd almost rather see Dom Smith play everyday and see if he can make something of himself for the future than more of the 2018 version of James Loney.  I’m not necessarily saying to kick Gonzalez to the curb but if you want his clubhouse presence make him the backup.

Asdrubel Cabrera is the only Met regular player having a good offensive season who is also still relatively healthy.  I want my crow slow roasted with salt and garlic, please.  Now you have to decide if you want to try to retain him at 2B for 2019 by negotiating now when YOU HAVE THE EXCLUSIVE RIGHT to do so, or are you going to let him test the free agent waters and perhaps sign him at a higher price later?  Or do you let him walk away to open up the spot for Luis Guillorme, Gavin Cecchini, T.J. Rivera, Jeff McNeill or a second baseman to be named later? 

Amed Rosario is the exception to the veteran/rookie quandary.  He is out there day in and day out, but Callaway kept jerking him around the batting order until he realized what casual observers were tracking – that he actually does better in the 9 hole.  Maybe there’s hope for slow learning Callaway after all.

Todd Frazier has performed as advertised when he was able to stay on the field.   He was never my first choice for the position but should easily out distance his paycheck.  Obviously one reason he was chosen was price, another was the lack of draft pick compensation.  Mike Moustakas was the name most people wanted to see here, but he cost more and would require that pick.  Frazier’s delivered .237/5/21.  The power is a bit down but the average (sadly) is a bit up.  Moustakas?  That one year flash-in-the-pan is hitting .294/10/30 for KC.  That’s the déjà vu reality of the Mets – going for the tin ring instead of the brass one.

Now I can’t fault Mickey Callaway nor Sandy Alderson for going into the season with the catching duo from the end of last year.  They were projected in the top 5 production among all major league catchers (in terms of offense, anyway).  Nor can I fault either of them for losing both to injury on the very same day.  I can, however, aim squarely at the guy controlling the lineup pencil for giving ANY ABs more than necessary to Jose Lobaton who is a career .216 hitter and a disaster as a catcher.  Not that Tomas Nido is the second coming of Johnny Bench, but why not play someone with potential to be better than someone who has proven that he is what he is and it’s all he will ever be?  He makes you long for the dubious offensive exploits of minor leaguer Anthony Recker and his Hispanic clone, Rene Rivera.  Kudos to Sandy Alderson for the change-of-scenery trade that swapped injury rehabbers and underperformers Matt Harvey and Devin Mesoraco.  Again, the potential for something better is preferable for guaranteed mediocrity.  However, 20 lashes for hanging onto Jose Lobaton.  He is the very definition of superfluous right now with Nido also on the 40 man roster.  DFA Lobaton immediately, bring back Nido for the backup catcher slot until Plawecki returns and open up a spot on the 40 man roster for someone actually producing offense such as McNeill or (deep breath) Pete Alonso.

The outfield collectively is a mess.  Yoenis Cespedes was foolishly allowed not only to play but also to steal bases while nursing a hip flexor injury which finally and mercifully resulted in a trip to the DL.  Now you know and I know that the club that routinely struggles for runs will bring back their HR and RBI leader much sooner than they should and that will likely result in future and longer stints on the DL.  Déjà vu, no?


His Mr. Glass counterpart, Juan Lagares, injured his toe in an outfield wall collision in a blowout while on a rain soaked CitiField.  Who didn't see the handwriting on the wall?  Surgery.  Gone for the season!    

I wish I had Brandon Nimmo’s publicist because he’s singlehandedly transformed him from a “first round draft pick bust” to the new Wilmer Flores, the guy everyone insists should be in the lineup every day.  While I appreciate his selectivity at the plate the fact remains that he’s hitting .267/2/5.  Over the course of a full season playing every day he would deliver 20 HRs and 50 RBIs.  The 20 HRs would be nice if it actually happened, but his high water mark in the minors against inferior pitching was just 10 in a real league and 11 in just under 400 ABs in the high altitude PCL.  What I’m saying is if you condemn Wilmer Flores as a role player for his superior output then why clamor for Nimmo to be a starter?

Speaking of starters, why is Michael Conforto here?  Yes, we all know the club is absolutely desperate for offense, but is .200/3/9 in 100 ABs going to help?  Extrapolate to 600 ABs to be kind and that’s 18 HRs and 54 RBIs.  We’ll leave the Mendoza line balancing act alone for a minute.  Now, given what he’s done in the past and seeing what he’s doing now does it occur to his manager, the trainer, the hitting coach or the front office that MAYBE they rushed him back prematurely?   Once again, the more things change...  While there’s no one on the 40-man roster putting himself into the equation as an outfielder, could a Zach Borenstein hold down the fort for awhile until Conforto has regained his power stroke?  Borenstein isn’t on the 40-man roster but delivered 24 HRs and 91 RBIs last year while on a pace for 28/100 this year.  He’s not necessarily a long term answer but right now Conforto is hurting the club more than helping it.  DFA Jose Reyes and you have an opening for him.  

I can’t say much about Jay Bruce.  We saw the good of 2017, the bad of 2017 and now the ugly of 2018.  He’s streaky and has a long track record of success, and given what they’re paying him he’s going to play when his foot allows him to do so.  However, it’s hard to ignore a lackluster .230/3/14 line.

The starting rotation should include Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and yes, Steven Matz.  After that it’s pretty questionable.  I am willing to give Zack Wheeler a partial pass for Wednesday afternoon’s debacle given the conditions (though, unless I’m wrong, both clubs were playing under the same downpour).  He was masterful in his first Mesoraco-supported start.  Let him continue for at least 2-3 more turns in the rotation before making a definitive conclusion about his possible banishment to the bullpen.  After all, there were alternatives available like Corey Oswalt but he didn’t even get into a game this time around in Queens.

Jason Vargas is the much bigger dilemma.  You have to think there’s quite a bit of rust after having missed most of Spring Training and April with the fracture of his glove hand.  Still, his flat out awful pitching in the second half of last year could be indicative of having reached the end of the road, yet once again the GM felt it was a worthy gamble for a bounce back since he didn’t require a draft pick and was secured for the relatively modest price of $8 million per year.  Right now there’s nowhere for him to go but up, and if they’re not going to allow him to rehab in the minors for 30 days, you’re stuck with him.  Fortunately his contract is structured as a one year deal with a one year option at the same salary or a $2 million buyout. 

Now many are arguing for the move of Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo from the pen into the rotation but that’s the very definition of borrowing from Peter to pay Paul.  They are both flourishing in their roles in the pen and do deserve to be moved, but not into the rotation.  They need to take over the 7th and 8th inning responsibilities setting up Jeurys Familia.  This change does two things.  It allows them to minimize the burnout of the multiple inning stints they’ve endured under “Use ‘Em Until His Arm Falls Off” Callaway, and it gives them high leverage pitching experience much like Addison Reed gained before being thrust into the closer’s role.  Do remember that both AJ Ramos (thankfully) and Jeurys Familia are due to be free agents at year’s end.  Yes, there are some very interesting closer arms in the minors but none at the AAA level (other than their own Claude Rains, Tim Peterson). 

To fix the bullpen I would DFA or outright Hansel Robles when he comes off the DL and bring up Peterson.  Can he honestly be worse than Robles?  Hansel has had his many chances and surely there’s a hungry witch somewhere who would welcome him.

One would assume Buddy Baumann and/or Jacob Rhame will be warbling Viva Las Vegas once Anthony Swarzak returns from the witness protection program.  If he can pitch half as well as he did in 2017 he would be a major upgrade.  Why they signed him instead of better and cheaper options is something we’ll never know.

Finally, let’s get it into Mickey Callaway’s head that it’s a marathon and not a sprint.  Don’t put six pitchers into every game.  When you’re in a blowout as you had on Wednesday, tell someone to take one for the team and just use a single pitcher as long as possible.  That way you preserve the rest of your bullpen. 

I do commend Callaway for not ducking and hiding after the lineup mishap.  However, he’s been noticeably quieter and far less visible once the losing began.  I’d like to see some of that swagger and bluster that made everyone develop a man-crush on him once he was hired.  Instead he’s morphing into a taller and more hirsute version of the departed Skipper.  And that’s not a good thing at all. 

14 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Morning Reese -

I have my own spin on this at noon today.

Tom Brennan said...

My vote for a call up is Matt den Dekker, hitting .360 in May. Normally kind of K prone, he has fanned just 7 times in 65 at bats in May. Borenstein is hitting in the .240s, and the Mets are already Boren enough.

Astounding McNeil or Pounding Pete...how does this team somehow get in the position of injuries and lack of offense so early in the season, prior to when you would want to call guys like them up? I would like them to get more ABs in the minors before either is called up. Pete only has 600 minor league at bats so far....love the career line, though...48 doubles, 34 homers, 118 RBI, .310.

McNeil is a safer bet...just 14 Ks in 33 games and a .719 slugger.. except he only has 6 career games in the OF. Why the heck is that? Make guys who might be utility players max-ready by moving them around. If Tebow can play the outfield, so can Jeff.

We need a Jose-free environment. The recycle bin has a Jose Group on and is interested in two-fers.

Call up Dom Smith...shift speedy Gonzalez to the outfield...of course, that would lengthen games by 20 minutes as singles turn to triples. Run, Adrian, Run.

I say, if you are not going to trade Jake and Thor to the Yankees, make them your "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain" duo. Let the two of them start all remaining games, at least Until Anthony Swarzak returns in September.

Erica Lay said...

I'll never understand why this organization refuses to believe Wilmer can be an everyday player. The dude can hit - LHP and RHP. I had hope that Mickey and Co. would give him a fair shot but, once again, Wilmer can't find enough regular ABs to get in a groove.

Tom Brennan said...

Erica, I agree.

Met Monkey said...

Do you think they refuse to play Wilmer to lower his value, so they can eventually re-sign him? Wow, trying to think like the mets hurts. They really do tend to monkey around their own.

Anonymous said...

I thought Anthony Recker was Hispanic.

That Adam Smith said...

I agree with so much of this article (and with Erica, re: Flores.

Nido should be up and learning at the knee of Moresco. DFA Loboton. Gonzo May well have a little left, but 1B is the only position at which the org is stacked, top to bottom, with guys who may well be the future (not to mention Wilmer picking splinters out of his keester on the bench). See if there is anyone in either league who will give up a hard throwing A-ball reliever for him. Pick up the half mil for them if necessary, or else DFA. Vargas needs a full minor league rehab, and even then my money is on “sunk cost”. As to Cabrera, I would be looking to deal him before the clock strikes 12 on this season he’s having. At least do so as soon as it becomes (more) apparent that this isn’t going to be a playoff team. There could be some value there. Let’s hope he stays healthy between now and then. Callaway talked a lot about resting guys liberally, has done no such thing, particularly with the older vets who have been run out there every day until (or even though) injured. Ramos needs to be a mop-up guy, and should never see the 7th or 8th other than in blowouts. Reyes (though it hurts my heart to say it) needs to go. Swarzak should hire an illustrator and publish his own “where’s waldo” book series. Conforto, (Who def needed more rehab time) Rosario, deGrom, Thor, Lugo, Gsellman, Flores (who should be getting 500 AB’s), and Nimmo (possibly not as a starter, but jury’s out), are keepers. Bruce/Cespedes are both untradeable contracts. Frazier has some value, but also should be traded at the deadline or before if we fall out of contention. McNeil and Guillorme should both be here as soon as Cabrera is traded.

In the end, it’s time for the Wilpons to start shopping for a gold watch (or, you know, an Amway gift certificate) for Sandy’s retirement. And to start taking bids for the team.

Reese Kaplan said...

May I take a bow for my recommendation they DFA Lobaton immediately? :)

Reese Kaplan said...

@Anonymous -- While I can't say for sure, his Wikipedia entry says, "Born in Allentown, Pennsylvania, Recker was raised by mother Alicia and stepfather Kip.[1] He attended Catasauqua High School, where he also played football and basketball, and later continued his baseball career at Alvernia College, a small NCAA Division III school in Reading, Pennsylvania.[2][3] One of Recker's college teammates was Zach Lutz, and the pair were coached by Lutz's father.[4] While playing for the Crusaders, Recker spent some time on the mound, where he occasionally threw a knuckleball.[5][6] Despite growing up in Pennsylvania, Recker's favorite team growing up was the Oakland Athletics.[7]"

bill metsiac said...

Maybe because he stops hitting when he plays regularly and his weaknesses get exposed. And he can't play solid D at any position.

bill metsiac said...

I didn't know you had that much clout.😅

bill metsiac said...

How does "Recker" sound Spanish?

bgreg98180 said...

From what I have witnessed the past 4 years, Wilmer proves to hit better when given a starting position after mid-may.
He has always, even in the minors, started slow in the colder/cooler weather months.

And his defense has been over-exaggerated in the negative.
Even his year of playing shortstop, he did not prove to be the worst in the league.

Anonymous said...

He just looks Hispanic to me. There are Hispanic people that don’t have Spanish last names.